iPhone 16 Sales Trail iPhone 15 by 1% in the U.S., But Key Drivers May Boost Q4 Performance

Despite an earlier launch this year, U.S. iPhone 16 series cumulative sales are currently just 1% year-over-year (YoY) behind the same-time sales of last-gen iPhone 15 series. iPhone 16 series…

By Ishika Setia

November 6, 2024

3 min read

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Despite an earlier launch this year, U.S. iPhone 16 series cumulative sales are currently just 1% year-over-year (YoY) behind the same-time sales of last-gen iPhone 15 series. iPhone 16 series is facing lower launch week sales compared to iPhone 15 over the first four weeks since launch, despite launching a week earlier, according to Counterpoint’s Weekly Sell-Through Tracker. This is likely partly due to the fact that major U.S. carriers and Apple’s own website were offering much shorter wait times for the iPhone 16 family than the marathon delays that hurt the iPhone 15 launch.

iPhone 16 Sales Drop in the USA

Senior Analyst Gerrit Schneemann noted that availability has improved, but sales of the iPhone 16 series were off to a slower start this year than over the same period in 2022. Wireless carriers in the U.S., as well, have reported sluggish smartphone upgrade rates, analysts have observed. Senior Analyst Maurice Klaehne noted consumers appear hesitant to upgrade, keeping their existing phones longer. This put a damper on the overall sales environment, and there has been a noted reduction in upgrades.

Looking forward into Q4 2024, Counterpoint predicts a continued decline in iPhone 16 sales in comparison to the same period last year. But the expected launch of Apple Intelligence, Apple’s version of GenAI technology, at the end of October may save some sales. The new feature could tempt some existing iPhone users to upgrade a little sooner rather than later.

Additionally, wireless carriers will continue their promotional sales and trade-in offers, despite some generally poor swap rates in the iPhone space in Q3 likely benefiting the iPhone 16 in Q4. These initiatives mirror the general trend among consumers for more premium smartphones, despite weak year-to-date equipment revenues and upgrade rates. Overall, iPhone 16 series initial sales are running below expectations, but core factors like Apple’s own new AI features and carrier promotions may provide a growth boost.

FAQs

Why are iPhone 16 sales slightly behind the iPhone 15 in the U.S.?

The iPhone 16 series has seen a 1% drop in sales compared to the previous generation, largely due to weaker upgrade rates and consumers holding onto their current smartphones longer.

What could boost iPhone 16 sales in Q4 2024?

The rollout of Apple Intelligence and seasonal promotional offers from wireless carriers could help drive iPhone 16 sales, potentially encouraging upgrades.