As the Spurs gear up for the commencement of a fresh era led by Ange Postecoglou, there exist several significant inquiries as they approach the 2023-24 season. In this context, we highlight five crucial concerns that could play a pivotal role in determining the verdict on the success of this season.
What Course of Action Should Tottenham Take Regarding Harry Kane?
The decision lies predominantly in Harry Kane’s hands. With only a year remaining on his Tottenham contract, he has expressed no desire to extend it anytime soon – a stance that seems justified.
Tottenham concluded the previous season in eighth place, leaving them without any European or Champions League football opportunities for the upcoming season. In stark contrast, Kane accomplished an astonishing feat by netting 30 goals. As a world-class athlete with ambitions for trophies, his prospects of achieving such accolades with Spurs appear quite limited. The allure of potential suitors like Bayern Munich, who have expressed interest publicly, adds to the temptation for Kane to consider other options.
Despite Tottenham’s unwavering stance that Kane is not for sale and their efforts to secure a contract extension, there’s a compelling argument, even before delving into speculations that owner Joe Lewis has urged chairman Daniel Levy to offload Kane this summer to prevent a free departure, that Spurs might be better off capitalizing on his value now.
Trading him this summer would undoubtedly come with significant drawbacks, particularly the loss of a once-in-a-generation talent, arguably the finest player in the club’s history, and notably, the linchpin of the current squad. Kane’s contribution accounted for a remarkable 43% of Tottenham’s Premier League goals last season – a proportion exceeding all others in the league. His achievement in scoring over 25 goals for a team outside the top seven was a Premier League first. To illustrate, he exceeded expectations with his 30 goals from an xG (expected goals) of just 21.5. His departure would undoubtedly leave an enormous void.
Nevertheless, the situation hinges on an immediate and substantial turnaround under the newly appointed manager, Ange Postecoglou. Unless there is a notable improvement, Harry Kane will refrain from committing to a new contract. While he has consistently expressed his preference for achieving success with Tottenham rather than seeking it elsewhere, it’s understandable that he would opt for triumphs elsewhere rather than enduring a lack of achievements.
Should Spurs allow Kane’s contract to expire, they would not only relinquish him without compensation, but he would also gain the freedom to choose his next destination. For numerous Tottenham supporters, any scenario seems more appealing than contemplating the distressing prospect of a reunion between Kane and Mauricio Pochettino, particularly at Chelsea.
The magnitude of the decision confronting Spurs is substantial, and it could be time to bid farewell to Harry Kane, even if only partially, under terms that are more favorable to the club.
How Much Time Will it Take for the Players to Adapt to Ange-ball?
A somewhat comparable scenario in recent football history is not hard to locate. Upon Mikel Arteta’s assumption of the managerial role at Arsenal, the team languished in tenth place in the Premier League standings (a position they eventually concluded the season in – eighth). This marked the commencement of a profound and arduous rebuilding process under the new leadership.
To emphasize the extent of transformation that has occurred in the three and a half years since Arteta’s appointment, the sole remaining players from his initial matchday squad are Bukayo Saka, Reiss Nelson, and Emile Smith Rowe. It’s worth noting that Arsenal came remarkably close to clinching the league title in the previous season.
Tottenham has, over the past four years, garnered insights from their appointments of “win-now” coaches like José Mourinho and Antonio Conte, realizing that their context differs significantly from that of Chelsea. Teams such as Tottenham – and Arsenal – necessitate time to establish frameworks capable of sustaining enduring changes. While Arteta has achieved notable success at Arsenal, he encountered a period of adjustment to mold his team’s playing style and to shape his squad into the cohesive unit he envisioned.
The triumph in the 2020 FA Cup was built on a favorable path to the semi-finals and victories over Manchester City and Chelsea, characterized by possession statistics of 29.2% and 40.3%, respectively. In essence, these performances contrast starkly with the expectations associated with Arteta’s Arsenal at present.
Tottenham can derive encouragement from the fact that their starting point is more favorable than Arsenal’s. Arsenal was entrenched in their fourth consecutive season without Champions League football, whereas Spurs secured a fourth-place finish in the 2021-22 season under Conte’s leadership. While Postecoglou undoubtedly seeks to introduce changes to his squad, it’s challenging to envision an overhaul on the scale overseen by Arteta (though time may ultimately provide insight into this aspect).
Nevertheless, a substantial overhaul is on the horizon. Postecoglou’s affinity for an aggressive high press is apparent; in the previous season, Tottenham ranked at the bottom of the Premier League with a mere 255 high turnovers. However, they shared the top spot for high turnovers leading to goals, indicating that while they weren’t accustomed to pressing extensively, their execution was proficient when engaged.
This presents a potential foundation for the new manager to build upon. Postecoglou’s inclination toward possession dominance is another key aspect; Tottenham’s possession averaged below 50% (49.8%) in the 2022-23 season – a departure from the norm over the past 19 seasons, with the last instance occurring in 2004-05 (49.3%). Additionally, Postecoglou’s tactical preference involves initiating bold possession play from the defensive line. In this regard, the declining performance of Hugo Lloris is evident, as he registered more errors leading to goals in the Premier League during the 2022-23 season (four) than any other player.
Another hallmark of Postecoglou’s strategy is to orchestrate attacks with expansive width in the opponent’s half. Notably, Tottenham ranked 13th in the Premier League for the average width of their attacks (24.7m) in the previous season.
History suggests that Postecoglou tends to experience gradual beginnings at his former clubs, including Celtic, where they stumbled in three out of the opening seven league matches under his Australian leadership before an upturn in fortunes. Given the substantial transformations required at Tottenham, it’s rational to anticipate a period of time before Postecoglou’s tactical concepts take root in the demanding environment of the Premier League.
Do Postecoglou’s Full-Backs Possess the Attributes Required for Ange-ball?
Postecoglou holds a preference for his full-backs to adopt an inward movement and link with the central midfield when his team is in possession. This commitment to his tactical approach was evident right from the onset of Tottenham’s inaugural friendly match under his leadership against West Ham. Both full-backs exhibited consistent alternation in their infield positioning, albeit with mixed levels of success.
On the left-back front, Tottenham boasts Destiny Udogie, Ben Davies, the returning Sergio Reguilón, and the potential utilization of Ryan Sessegnon. However, the feasibility of Sessegnon adopting the left-back role within a back four remains a subject of debate, given his prior experience primarily as a left-sided midfielder or wing-back for the club.
Moreover, the experiment with Ivan Perisic at left-back during the resounding 6-1 victory against Newcastle presumably serves as a deterrent for Postecoglou to consider him in that position. Importantly, none of these options are inherently accustomed to fulfilling the role of the inverted full-back.
Sergio Reguilón did not appear entirely at ease in the aforementioned friendly match. His playing style is characterized by making runs and delivering crosses from the full-back position, rather than focusing on precise passing. He tends to encounter challenges with shorter passes and finds his comfort zone in whipping balls into the box from wider areas.
In the 2021-22 Premier League season, Reguilón ranked second only to João Cancelo (2.13) in terms of expected assists generated from crosses, with a tally of 2.06. His touch map from his two-year tenure at Tottenham illustrates his propensity to adhere to his strengths, which involve closely hugging the touchline.
In Tottenham’s initial friendly encounter, Ben Davies was deployed as a left centre-back, a decision that does not necessarily preclude Postecoglou from considering him as a potential full-back option. However, this choice also does not indicate a hurried inclination to position him as a full-back. Despite his versatile usage, it’s worth noting that at 30 years old, Davies is unlikely to undergo a complete transformation into an inverted full-back. Nevertheless, his aptitude for progressive passing makes him a valuable asset in the role of a left-sided centre-back.
At 20 years old, Destiny Udogie emerges as a prime candidate for adapting and mastering what effectively amounts to a new position. His primary comfort zone resides as a wing-back – a role he effectively fulfilled throughout the entirety of the past season with Udinese. Udogie often assumed similar positional postures as Reguilón. The intrigue lies in whether Udogie can successfully adjust his playing style. Encouragingly, his performance in the West Ham friendly displayed more promising signs than Reguilón’s, making his adaptation process a noteworthy development to observe.
On the right-back front, Pedro Porro stands out for his commendable technical prowess, although his standout performances for Spurs in the previous season were primarily observed when he occupied a position in the wide right midfield. Emerson Royal, on the other hand, aligns more as a defender-first, ball-playing full-back, making it challenging to envision him thriving in a central midfield role. Djed Spence, a recent addition to Tottenham, has seen limited action since his arrival, with his 575 minutes of play on loan at Rennes during the past season predominantly spent as a conventional right-back.
In essence, the scenario at right-back mirrors that of the left-back position: no existing players are attuned to executing the Ange-style approach as full-backs. Consequently, it could be the younger players who exhibit a greater propensity to adapt and be molded into this role.
Although Spurs haven’t been linked with additional full-back signings, it’s plausible that they may require a transformative acquisition akin to Arsenal’s recruitment of Oleksandr Zinchenko a year ago in order to fully harness the potential of Ange-ball. Such a strategic move could prove instrumental in realizing the tactical vision to its utmost extent.
Does Vicario Possess the Quality Required for a Top-Four Contention?
It’s safe to say that Tottenham’s decision to halt their pursuit of David Raya and swiftly secure the services of Guglielmo Vicario was somewhat unexpected. Vicario arrives in the Premier League with an air of mystery surrounding his abilities, yet considering the performance Hugo Lloris delivered in the previous season, Spurs supporters are optimistic that Vicario might offer an improvement over the French goalkeeper.
Vicario displays proficiency as a shot-stopper of more than satisfactory caliber. Across both his Serie A campaigns in 2021-22 and 2022-23, he thwarted an average of 2.3 non-penalty goals, based on our expected goals on target model. His combined tally of 4.6 non-penalty goals prevented over these two seasons ranks as the second-best among all Serie A goalkeepers, surpassed only by Lukasz Skorupski of Bologna (5.8).
Adjusting to playing out from the back within a possession-dominant team, a key aspect of Postecoglou’s desired approach, could entail a period of adaptation. Empoli’s possession averaged just 47.1% in Serie A last season. While Vicario was encouraged to engage in short passing whenever feasible, he often resorted to longer distributions under pressure.
Notably, he ranked ninth in Serie A for the number of attempted long balls, with 34% of his passes finding their mark in the opposition’s half. Furthermore, Vicario might need to familiarize himself with the role of sweeping behind a high defensive line, a task he executed only seven times over the entirety of the previous season. This placement positioned him 14th in Serie A for “keeper sweepings,” a metric that evaluates the goalkeeper’s sweeping actions.
Nevertheless, Vicario demonstrates astute decision-making capabilities. He exercises caution when attempting passes along the ground, reserving such actions for situations he is confident in executing. While his long passes often resemble clearances more than strategic long balls, he has committed just two errors leading to goals in his 73 Serie A appearances for Empoli. Remarkably, both errors stemmed from shots slipping through his legs too easily rather than from misplaced passes. While adapting to Postecoglou’s football philosophy may require some acclimatization, Vicario appears prepared for the step up in competition.
What Constitutes the Optimal Midfield Combination?
Having predominantly operated with a two-man midfield setup during Conte’s tenure, Postecoglou faces the task of reconfiguring the central aspect of his team. Tottenham possesses a plethora of options in central midfield, a pool that expands upon Rodrigo Bentancur’s return from injury. However, indications suggest that Postecoglou is actively pursuing additional reinforcements in this area, further fueled by speculations regarding Pierre-Emile Højbjerg’s potential departure. While Højbjerg and Bentancur aptly performed as a midfield duo, the introduction of a midfield trio appears to better align with the strengths of numerous squad members.
Optimally, Yves Bissouma seems poised to assume the role of the ball-playing defensive midfielder at the base of the midfield. Bissouma’s proficiency in this position is accentuated by his penchant for simplicity in passing, culminating in a Premier League pass completion rate of 91.3% for the preceding season. This figure ranks fifth among players who featured for a minimum of 1,000 minutes, placing him behind solely Manchester-based defenders: Manuel Akanji (93.3%), John Stones (93.3%), Victor Lindelöf (93.2%), and Rúben Dias (92.7%). As Bissouma seeks to recapture the form that prompted his signing by Spurs a year earlier, a consistent run of matches is anticipated to facilitate this resurgence.
Flanking this core setup, a dynamic runner in the form of Bentancur (or potentially Conor Gallagher, if the rumors hold true) and a creative playmaker like James Maddison will contribute to a well-balanced central midfield formation. Pape Sarr and Oliver Skipp are available alternatives for the number eight positions, although their performances in the challenging role of a midfield duo under Conte did not truly stand out. Sarr, however, has demonstrated promising potential as a ball-carrier.
In the previous Premier League season, he ranked fifth among central midfielders for carries per 90 (19.0), placing him behind only Rodri, Kalvin Phillips, Mateo Kovacic, and Thiago Alcântara. It’s worth noting that Sarr’s statistical output is based on a relatively limited sample size. His attributes provide an additional option primarily for the number eight roles, with the potential to offer the press-resistant dribbling qualities that Spurs fans once aspired to see in Tanguy Ndombélé.
Expectations run high for the resurgence of Tanguy Ndombélé upon his return from a successful loan spell, culminating in a title-winning season at Napoli. Additionally, Giovani Lo Celso appears well-suited to the advanced number eight positions that Postecoglou envisions for his midfielders. However, it’s plausible that both players may find themselves lower in the pecking order. Their recent playing time has been limited – since the commencement of the 2021-22 season, Ndombélé and Lo Celso have respectively featured in only 28.9% and 34.5% of the available league minutes, either for Tottenham or on loan elsewhere. Their careers may have encountered a degree of stagnation.
Postecoglou has a wealth of potential at his disposal, and an optimistic outlook is justified. Nonetheless, the path ahead is lengthy, requiring patience. Immediate resurgence to the upper echelons of the league table for Spurs should not be anticipated – although as history has shown, unexpected outcomes are always a possibility.
