At this time last year, presenting the possibility of Arsenal securing a second-place finish in the Premier League would have undoubtedly thrilled their fans. The primary objective of the previous season was to secure a spot in the UEFA Champions League, a goal which Mikel Arteta and his team successfully accomplished.
However, Arsenal’s promising lead of eight points at the summit of the Premier League standings gradually dissipated during the latter half of the season. Despite their impressive start to the campaign, they couldn’t translate it into clinching their first league championship since the 2003-04 season. Consequently, some fans began to ponder on the ‘what ifs’ surrounding this outcome.
Dethroning Manchester City requires an almost flawless performance. As the 2023-24 season approaches, we present five crucial questions that Arsenal must address as they aim to launch another formidable title challenge.
Has a Competition for the Position of First-Choice Goalkeeper Emerged All of a Sudden?
The £30 million acquisition of Aaron Ramsdale by Arsenal from Sheffield United before the 2021-22 season unquestionably caught many by surprise. Having experienced consecutive relegations with Bournemouth and Sheffield United, Ramsdale initially didn’t appear to possess the necessary qualities to be a goalkeeper in a team aspiring for a top-four position.
However, Ramsdale has since become a constant presence in Arsenal’s goal, and the recently signed long-term contract seemingly designates him as the club’s established first-choice goalkeeper for the foreseeable future.
So, why is Arsenal reportedly displaying interest in David Raya, Brentford’s goalkeeper?
The straightforward response is the pursuit of healthy competition. As they endeavor to narrow the gap against Manchester City’s dominance, Arsenal cannot afford complacency. Their transfer activities thus far – bringing in Jurriën Timber, Declan Rice, and Kai Havertz – demonstrate a deliberate move to add three players who can immediately contend for a starting position. The same rationale would apply to Raya, introducing intensified pressure on Ramsdale. The presence of competition fosters a culture of excellence.
Beyond this, Raya embodies the attributes of a highly capable contemporary goalkeeper. His proficiency in stopping shots was truly remarkable during the previous season with Brentford. According to Opta’s expected goals on target analysis, Raya prevented nearly six goals more than the average goalkeeper would have conceded. Only Bernd Leno of Fulham (10.7) and Alisson of Liverpool (9.5) surpassed this level of performance.
In contrast, Ramsdale ended up conceding an additional goal compared to what might be considered optimal, a fact that possibly encapsulates the notion that while he displayed flashes of excellence, he also experienced periods of subpar performance.
Even during the 2021-22 season, which marked Ramsdale’s notably commendable inaugural campaign in the north London team, his ability to prevent shots from scoring landed around the league’s mean. He managed to thwart just 0.6 goals more than what an average goalkeeper would typically be anticipated to prevent.
Ramsdale’s proficiency in ball distribution was a key factor that attracted Arsenal’s attention, a quality that David Raya also brings to the table.
Brentford’s style of play leans toward a more direct approach compared to Arsenal. Consequently, Raya often had the responsibility of launching long kicks, primarily targeting Ivan Toney, not only from goal-kicks but also during open play. Impressively, 66% of his passes in the previous season were long – a rate ranking sixth highest among Premier League goalkeepers, significantly surpassing Ramsdale’s 51%.
BREAKING: Arsenal have reached an agreement to sign David Raya, here we go! Deal agreed with Brentford after personal terms last week 🚨🔴⚪️
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) August 8, 2023
Documents being prepared between the clubs, medical to be booked this week.
Raya only wanted #AFC move. pic.twitter.com/s3HOeogH3y
Surprisingly, despite these differences in approach, both goalkeepers achieved similar overall passing accuracy (Ramsdale with 63.4% and Raya with 60.8%). Particularly noteworthy is Raya’s adeptness at accurately delivering long passes. He successfully completed 42% of his long passes last season, a rate among the league’s best. In contrast, only 29.2% of Ramsdale’s long passes reached a teammate, which was the third-lowest rate among first-choice goalkeepers.
Raya’s precision over longer distances provided a valuable asset for Brentford. He contributed by creating nine secondary chances in the previous season – passes that set up the opportunity to create a scoring chance – a figure that exceeded any other goalkeeper by four. Furthermore, he executed 22 progressive passes, a significant 16 more than any other goalkeeper in the same season. This highlights the frequency with which Thomas Frank’s team utilized Raya’s kicking ability to advance play up the field.
Undoubtedly, Raya possesses the quality to secure a starting spot in most Premier League teams, including Arsenal. He could capably serve as Ramsdale’s backup, and there exists a legitimate chance that he might even challenge and overtake Ramsdale for the number one position.
How Should They Handle Nketiah and Balogun?
Arsenal must determine their course of action concerning the alternatives to their primary striker, Gabriel Jesus, especially given his injury sidelining him at the start of the season.
Do they feel confident entrusting Eddie Nketiah as his substitute? Or might they opt for a change by considering Folarin Balogun?
While Gabriel Jesus boasts a multitude of strengths, finishing has never been his prominent skill.
The dilemma for Arsenal lies in determining their course of action regarding the backup options for their primary striker, Gabriel Jesus, especially considering his injury sidelining him at the beginning of the season.
The question arises: Is Eddie Nketiah a comfortable choice as his understudy, or should they consider exploring a different approach with Folarin Balogun?
Although Gabriel Jesus brings considerable strengths to the team, his proficiency in finishing has never been a standout attribute. Over his seven seasons in the Premier League, he has accumulated an expected goal total of 83.6. However, his actual goal tally from these opportunities stands at 69, resulting in an underperformance of 14.6 goals. Remarkably, since his debut season at Manchester City in 2016-17, no other player has underperformed their expected goals by a larger margin.
While his off-the-ball contributions and ability to elevate his teammates’ performance compensate for this shortfall, Mikel Arteta recognizes the value of such trade-offs.
However, should Arsenal’s initial strategy falter or if they require a more clinical finisher to capitalize on half-chances, alternative options become essential.
Eddie Nketiah secured a long-term contract last year, reportedly worth £100,000 per week. Although he admirably deputized for Jesus at the start of 2022, he encountered challenges in maintaining fitness and securing playing time upon the Brazilian’s return.
Nevertheless, Nketiah’s underlying statistics have consistently displayed strength. In the previous season, within his 1,070 minutes of Premier League play, he averaged 0.69 non-penalty expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes – surpassing all other Arsenal players. In fact, only Erling Haaland (0.75) and Callum Wilson (0.72) exceeded Nketiah’s non-penalty xG per 90 value, indicating his ability to position himself effectively for shooting opportunities despite limited game time.
Not only Inter. AS Monaco want to try and big again for Folarin Balogun after initial proposal made on Monday, he's top target to replace Breel Embolo who broke his ACL ⚪️🔴🇺🇸
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) August 8, 2023
Both Inter and Monaco expect to have situation clear this week. pic.twitter.com/ktmvvrfwXx
However, Nketiah did suffer from a lack of confidence in front of the goal, converting only four chances from an xG total of 8.25 last season. This underperformance of -4.25 stood as the third-worst in the Premier League, trailing behind Patrick Bamford (-4.61) and Kai Havertz (-4.60). Arteta is hopeful that at least one of these players can correct their course in terms of goal scoring, and Nketiah did manage a crucial goal in Arsenal’s pre-season victory over Monaco.
Alternatively, Arteta might consider turning to Balogun. The recently-established US international remains somewhat of an unknown entity, yet one with greater potential than Nketiah.
Balogun returns to the Emirates following a successful loan stint at Reims in Ligue 1. He netted 21 goals in the French top flight last season, securing fourth place in Ligue 1 goal rankings, trailing only Kylian Mbappé, Alexandre Lacazette, and Jonathan David. Impressively, he single-handedly accounted for 46% of Reims’ goals last season, reflecting his pivotal role in their attack.
Based on last season’s performance, Balogun presents a more immediate goal threat compared to either Jesus or Nketiah.
His consistent ability to generate promising chances for himself stands out. Amongst French players, only Mbappé (0.84) generated higher expected goals per 90 minutes than Balogun’s 0.79. Even when penalties are excluded, Balogun ranks third overall in France in this aspect.
Furthermore, Balogun frequently created opportunities for himself through his adept ball-carrying skills. In Ligue 1 last season, he completed 32 carries that culminated in a shot, placing him fourth among all players in France. While it’s worth noting that Reims’ more direct style might have afforded him additional space to exploit, his ability to carry the ball from deep surpasses that of other options at Arsenal.
Although Balogun’s success at Reims could be attributed to their distinct playing style, which allows for more space to exploit, his ball-carrying proficiency and capacity to generate shot volume suggest he can create chances for himself from the final third, regardless of the quality of service he receives.
Having experienced a loan spell, Balogun has indicated his reluctance to pursue another loan deal. Moreover, he is not content with a minor role in Arteta’s squad – his aim and necessity are centered around securing consistent first-team action. It’s apparent that Arteta might not retain both players for the upcoming season, prompting an intriguing decision about which player to prioritize.
Has Arsenal’s Transfer Window Actions Been Sufficient to Avoid a Situation Similar to Rob Holding’s?
We hold no reservations against Rob Holding. The English defender proves his competence in the Premier League, serving as a valuable asset within Arsenal’s squad. His presence also contributes positively to the team dynamic, both on and off the field. In essence, Rob Holding embodies a quintessential team player.
However, the discernible decline in defensive quality became apparent when William Saliba, the preferred right-sided center-back, suffered an injury setback in March. Prior to this, Saliba’s performance had been nothing short of exceptional, and his partnership alongside Gabriel Magalhães at the heart of the defense had significantly fueled Arsenal’s impressive early-season performance.
The statistics reflect this impact: when Saliba and Gabriel started together, Arsenal experienced defeat in just three out of 27 matches, clinching victory in 21 of them (78%). Conversely, this win percentage dwindled to a mere 33% during the Holding-Gabriel partnership. Distinct differences emerged in the team’s defensive performance as well – the Holding-Gabriel combination led to Arsenal facing over three additional shots per game compared to the Saliba-Gabriel pairing. Furthermore, the defensive stability waned, with Arsenal conceding nearly half an expected goal more per game with Holding and Gabriel in tandem.
The intention behind all of this is not to criticize Rob Holding. Rather, it aims to emphasize the crucial aspect that, in order to sustain a consistent challenge for the title throughout the entire season, an extraordinary depth of talent is essential. The distinction between your starting lineup and your substitutes should be minimal. When a player is sidelined due to a long-term injury, a seamless transition should occur with another player stepping in seamlessly. While this might appear to be an ambitious expectation, it mirrors the standard that Manchester City has established.
Arsenal likely holds confidence that Timber, Rice, and Havertz fulfill these requirements. Raya could potentially be a fourth addition to this category. However, the question remains: will these acquisitions prove adequate?
The Debate: Rice vs. Partey
If the signings of Timber and Havertz were the appetizers of Arsenal’s summer transfer activity, then Rice represented the substantial main course.
The former West Ham captain crossed London for a staggering fee of £105 million. This price tag underscores Arteta’s conviction that Rice holds the transformative potential required to propel the team even further this season.
The assertive pursuit of Rice introduced an element of uncertainty regarding Thomas Partey’s future. Initial reports hinted at interest from Saudi Arabia, as well as Juventus, for the Ghanaian international.
Nonetheless, those speculations have cooled off, and it now appears that the 30-year-old is set to remain with the team. Arteta himself has affirmed Partey’s integral role in his plans for the upcoming campaign.
However, with both players specializing in the number six role, how might their coexistence translate on the field?
Having Rice and Partey available to fill Arsenal’s holding midfield position exemplifies Arteta’s commitment to reinforcing depth in a pivotal area. With Champions League participation this season, ample playing time will be up for grabs.
Beyond their respective attributes, one notable aspect where Rice outshines Partey is durability. Rice has consistently started a minimum of 32 league matches in each of his last five seasons. Moreover, since the 2018-19 season, Rice ranks second only to James Tarkowski in terms of minutes played among all outfield players. While Partey managed 33 appearances in the previous season, he was limited to 24 appearances in each of his initial two seasons at Arsenal.
Remarkably, both players exhibit comparable profiles. According to our radar comparisons, the player in Europe’s top five leagues whose profile most closely resembles Rice’s is none other than Thomas Partey himself.
Without the ball, both players consistently demonstrate their reliability in winning possession and exhibit exceptional tactical awareness.
In possession, their contributions offer distinct dimensions. Rice’s proficiency in carrying the ball adds an element of dynamism to Arsenal’s midfield, while Partey contributes to progression through his expansive passing range.
On average, Rice advances the ball forward by 6.4 meters per ball carry, notably surpassing Partey’s average of 5.5 meters. The English midfielder showcases an aptitude for bypassing opponents with his ball-carrying skills, completing 31 carries, including successful dribbles, compared to Partey’s nine.
While Rice’s strength lies in advancing through ball-carrying, Partey achieves a similar effect through his passing abilities. Last season, the Ghanaian averaged 4.5 progressive passes per 90 minutes, the highest among all Arsenal midfielders. Impressively, only seven central midfielders across the entire Premier League surpassed this figure. In contrast, Rice’s average stood at 2.9.
The manner in which Arteta employs them will be intriguing to observe. It’s conceivable that Rice’s capability to drive forward with the ball might position him as one of Arsenal’s number eights, while Partey operates in a deeper role. Regardless of the configuration, both players represent exceptional choices for the manager to leverage. Their presence provides Arsenal with an abundance of tactical possibilities.
Is Arsenal Capable of Overcoming Their Troublesome Opponents?
When Arsenal made their way to the Etihad Stadium in late April for a clash against Manchester City, optimism was in short supply regarding their ability to secure the necessary outcome to maintain control of the title race. This skepticism was well-founded, considering their track record – they had suffered defeat in their previous 11 encounters with Pep Guardiola’s squad, amassing a cumulative score of 4-29.
As history would have it, this pattern persisted as Kevin De Bruyne and his teammates dominated, resulting in a 4-1 loss, marking their 12th consecutive defeat against City. This enduring losing streak against a single opponent stands as Arsenal’s lengthiest in Premier League history.
While Arsenal managed to break this unfavorable trend in the Community Shield Finals, securing victory over City through a penalty shootout, the league record remains intact, necessitating an improved performance to alter this narrative.
However, it’s not exclusively Manchester City against whom Arsenal struggles. Their last league victory at Anfield dates back over a decade (a 2-0 win in September 2012). Since then, their subsequent 10 visits have yielded seven losses and three draws.
Furthermore, Arsenal has faced difficulties against teams at the summit of the league. They have experienced defeat in their last eight Premier League encounters against sides occupying the top spot on match day, and the count increases to 10 if extended to teams commencing the fixture in the top two positions.
Curiously, Arsenal has also encountered challenges against teams residing in the lower half of the table. They have endured a five-game winless stretch at Goodison Park, suffering four losses during this period, including a fixture in the previous season – a result that halted Everton’s eight-game winless streak.
Though they haven’t crossed paths since their First Division days in 1991, Arsenal’s away record against Luton Town has been less than favorable, having failed to secure a victory in eight visits. As Arsenal prepares for their December trip to Kenilworth Road, they will aim to avoid evoking memories of their disappointing start to the 2021-22 season with the defeat against Brentford.
While Arteta may not place significant emphasis on their underwhelming records against Everton and Luton, the team’s struggles against Manchester City and Liverpool – two direct title rivals – undoubtedly raise concerns for the manager.
Read More: Arsenal transfer news latest 2023: Havertz official! Rice £105m bid accepted! Jurrien Timber latest
