The Beginning of the Season Has Been Disappointing for Manchester United, but We’ve Identified Five Aspects That Could Offer Fans and Erik ten Hag Some Hope.
When Rasmus Højlund sped through and skillfully slotted the ball past Fernando Muslera, giving Manchester United a second lead against Galatasaray in their UEFA Champions League group stage match on Tuesday, it seemed like a potential turning point.
However, when Kerem Aktürkoğlu swiftly equalized moments later due to more shockingly poor defending from the home team at Old Trafford, it felt like a familiar setback.
This disappointment was compounded by a red card for Casemiro, a late winner by Mauro Icardi for the visiting team, and United’s sixth defeat in their last nine matches in all competitions.
This was not how things were supposed to unfold.
Every club’s fans are entitled to some preseason optimism, but for Manchester United, it has quickly shifted from title aspirations to crisis concerns, and we’re only in early October. After a relatively promising first year with United, Erik ten Hag is now under scrutiny regarding his ability to restore the club to its former glory.
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At the start of the season, we had assigned relatively favourable probabilities to Manchester United’s top-four finish. Nonetheless, with merely nine points accumulated from their initial seven Premier League matches in the 2023-24 season, their prospects for Champions League qualification have significantly dwindled. Presently, there are indications that they might conclude as low as ninth, a situation that was previously considered implausible prior to the season’s commencement.
1. Recovering Players from Injury for Manchester United
Injuries are a common occurrence in all teams, or so you’ll often hear when they are cited as an explanation for poor performance, and there is some validity to that statement.
While injuries are part and parcel of the game, the real challenge arises when they occur in a specific area, as Liverpool fans can attest. In the 2020-21 season, they didn’t suffer a high volume of injuries, but they did lose all of their senior center-backs simultaneously for a significant portion of the campaign. This unfortunate circumstance disrupted their title aspirations early on and nearly cost them a top-four finish.
Currently, Manchester United’s predicament lies at left-back, where they are facing a shortage of options. With Luke Shaw, Tyrell Malacia, and loan signing Sergio Reguilón all sidelined, Sofyan Amrabat has been forced to fill in recently, which was evident in Tuesday’s match as the Morocco international struggled in an unfamiliar role.
Defensive setbacks have been observed throughout the team, with the first-choice center-back pairing of Lisandro Martínez and Raphaël Varane only playing 197 minutes together, and Aaron Wan-Bissaka having already been out of action for nearly a month. Star signings Mason Mount and Rasmus Højlund also missed some of the early part of the campaign due to injuries, while the situations involving Antony and Jadon Sancho have added to the challenges.
Managers seldom enjoy the luxury of having an entirely healthy squad at their disposal. Nevertheless, if Ten Hag can successfully reintroduce at least one dependable choice in every position, it may offer the team a chance to establish stability and boost morale. This would be especially crucial in defense, potentially yielding advantages for the team in the forthcoming matches.
2. Reducing Reliance on the Goalkeeper to Rescue Matches
Manchester United has faced a challenging start to the season, losing six out of their 10 matches in all competitions (with 4 wins). They’ve also conceded 18 goals across all competitions, the highest tally at this stage of the season since 1966-67 when they conceded 20 goals. These two facts seem interconnected.
However, it’s important not to lay all the blame on André Onana for this situation, even though some argue that there might be a connection between the team’s vulnerability in defense and the departure of long-time goalkeeper David de Gea at the end of the previous season.
De Gea was renowned for making spectacular saves to keep United in matches, often considered one of the best at pulling off crucial saves that few others could replicate in key moments. In a way, the team had become somewhat overly reliant on his extraordinary shot-stopping abilities.
As we previously discussed, De Gea’s ability to make crucial saves appeared to decline in recent seasons. While Onana has certainly delivered some noteworthy saves this season, he has also let in a notable number of goals. The decision to acquire the former Ajax and Inter goalkeeper was influenced by his skill with his feet, but when the opposition consistently scores, it elevates the urgency of addressing his goalkeeping performance over his distribution abilities.
Looking at the statistics, Onana has featured in all 10 of United’s games this season, facing 50 shots on target and conceding 17 goals (excluding own goals) from an expected 15.8 goals on target (xGOT). This means he has conceded approximately 1.2 goals more than what one would typically expect from a goalkeeper.
When we compare André Onana’s performance to David de Gea’s first 10 games of the previous season, some interesting insights emerge. De Gea conceded 17 goals from just 43 shots on target, with an expected goals on target (xGOT) of 14.3. This means he conceded 2.7 goals more than expected during that period.
It’s worth noting that some of the matches in that timeframe were in the Europa League, not the Champions League. Taking this into account, Onana’s record doesn’t appear too unfavorable when compared to his predecessor.
The performance of the Cameroon international hasn’t been without flaws thus far, but it seems that the main issue might stem from a deficiency in defensive support. This leads us to the next topic…
3. Restoring Casemiro to His Real Form or Turning to Amrabat
The acquisition of Casemiro was a significant turning point for Manchester United’s fortunes last season. The former Real Madrid midfielder brought a relentless, win-at-all-costs mentality that had been missing at the club. He was known for making crucial tackles, scoring important goals, and stepping up when it mattered most.
However, this season, something seems off. Among United players who have featured in at least half of their 10 games, only Aaron Wan-Bissaka (3.2) has averaged more tackles per 90 minutes than Casemiro (2.9). However, none of his teammates have been dribbled past by opponents as frequently as Casemiro, who allows opponents to get past him 2.4 times per 90 minutes. In the Premier League, only Liverpool’s Dominik Szoboszlai has been dribbled past more often, but unlike Casemiro, Szoboszlai isn’t a defensive midfielder and doesn’t play the same protective role in front of the defense.
Casemiro’s ball retention has also been a concern. While fellow midfielders Bruno Fernandes (76%) and Christian Eriksen (82.9%) haven’t been setting passing accuracy records, Casemiro (83.4%) plays in a deeper-lying midfield position, which would typically involve controlling the game while allowing others to take more high-risk, high-reward passes. However, his pass map against Galatasaray illustrates that he has been attempting to force plays too often, resulting in turnovers and the opposing team gaining possession.
The notable positive aspect about Casemiro is that he continues to be, somewhat inexplicably, one of Manchester United’s primary goal threats. He is currently the top scorer for the team in all competitions this season, having scored four goals. Only Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford (both with 28 attempts) have taken more shots than his 20.
However, Casemiro’s second yellow card against Galatasaray, resulting from a reckless challenge on Dries Mertens, was a desperate attempt to prevent a goal after a poor pass from Onana. Some might argue that he didn’t have much of a choice, but it was undeniably a rash and clumsy action.
If Manchester United can figure out how to get Casemiro back to something resembling his form from last season, it could have a significant impact. If not, perhaps Erik ten Hag should consider deploying the ever-energetic Sofyan Amrabat in Casemiro’s usual position.
Amrabat, currently on loan from Fiorentina, ranked joint third among midfielders for tackles (16) at the last FIFA World Cup and led in possession regains (57). He also recorded 26 recoveries in the defensive third, the highest among the same group of players. In Serie A, his 89.3% passing accuracy in open play was only surpassed by four midfielders (with a minimum of 1,000 minutes played) last season.
Alternatively, Amrabat could be used alongside Casemiro to provide greater protection to the back four, reducing the defensive burden on Casemiro.
4. Reviving Marcus Rashford’s Form
Discussing players who need to recapture their form from the 2022-23 season, Marcus Rashford has indeed struggled to replicate his previous performances.
Last season, he scored an impressive 30 goals in 56 games in all competitions, taking a total of 167 shots (including blocks), resulting in an expected goals (xG) value of 24.3.
However, in the current 2023-24 season, Rashford has made nine appearances, managing just one goal from 28 shots with an xG of 2.7. His remarkable shot conversion rate from the previous season has plummeted dramatically from 18% to a mere 3.6%. Consequently, a player who averaged a goal every 143 minutes in the 2022-23 season has only scored once in 768 minutes this term.
Until a recent match where he chose to pass instead of shooting, Marcus Rashford hadn’t shown signs of shyness in front of goal. In fact, only Erling Haaland (32) had attempted more shots in the Premier League than Rashford’s 28. However, the crucial issue seems to be that he’s not finding the space to shoot as frequently as before. Out of Rashford’s 28 shot attempts, 17 have been blocked, which is five more than any other player in the league (Eberechi Eze with 12). In the previous Premier League season, out of his 108 shots, only 27 were blocked.
In a recent 3-1 home defeat to Brighton, Rashford was involved in eight shot-ending passing sequences, but none resulted in goals, despite him taking the shots. Furthermore, in the match against Galatasaray, he didn’t attempt a single shot during his 68 minutes on the pitch. It’s unclear whether this was a conscious effort to adopt a more composed approach or if his form has led to a lack of confidence.
Like Casemiro, it’s difficult to believe that Rashford has suddenly become a significantly lesser player. If Erik ten Hag can help him regain the confidence he exuded last season, there’s every reason to believe he’ll return to scoring crucial goals in important moments. His assist in the recent match showcased his ability to contribute positively.
5. Building Around Rasmus Hojlund
Amidst the discussion of areas that need improvement, it’s essential to highlight one of the few bright spots at Old Trafford.
Reflecting on Rasmus Højlund’s goal to make it 2-1 against Galatasaray, it exuded a certain aura. The game hung in the balance when Davinson Sánchez slipped, and Højlund seized the opportunity, displaying excellent ball control in wet conditions and finishing with precision. It didn’t ultimately lead to victory for United, but that can hardly be attributed to the young striker.
Højlund may not have arrived with an extensive senior goal record despite his substantial summer transfer fee, but you can already discern what attracted United to him. His movement, touch, and confidence appear to be at the required level.
While the young Dane is yet to score his first Premier League goal, there’s optimism that, with opportunities created by his teammates (instead of relying on defensive mishaps), Højlund will start finding the back of the net. In a recent match, he tried to carry the team on his shoulders, but was let down at the other end of the pitch.
At the age of merely 20 years and 241 days, Rasmus Højlund achieved a historic feat by becoming the youngest player to score in his initial two Champions League appearances since Erling Haaland accomplished it in 2019. Furthermore, he joins an exclusive group as the fourth player to net three goals in his first two Champions League outings for Manchester United, alongside Dimitar Berbatov (4), Romelu Lukaku (3), and Wayne Rooney (3).
While Højlund may currently trail Casemiro as United’s overall top scorer, with a goal-scoring rate of 0.6 goals per 90 minutes, it’s only a matter of time before he takes the lead.
Addressing these issues on the pitch is crucial, and there’s still plenty of football left to be played. While some might feel that a simple call for change would suffice, Manchester United’s challenges must be resolved through action and performance on the field.
