Nintendo Switch 2 sales forecast raised to 16 million in 2025

DFC Intelligence recently published a new forecast for the Nintendo Switch 2, raising its total sales estimate from 15 million to 16 million units by 2025. This correction is in line with what we’ve come to expect from Nintendo and their traditionally conservative launch estimates.

For instance, it was forecast that the original Switch would sell 10 million copies, but it sold 15 million copies in its first year. If production can keep up, the company estimates the Switch 2 might even get to 20 million units sold in 2025, but due to manufacturing limitations, it suggests 16 million is the more probable option.

Nintendo Switch 2 sales forecast increased to 16 million units in 2025; crucial launch amid GTA VI delay

With Grand Theft Auto VI moved to a 2026 release, DFC now believes the launch of the Switch 2 will be even more important, with the potential to be the most important console launch yet. With GTA VI being a guaranteed sales driver for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S in 2025, DFC is predicting a slight decline in console software sales throughout key Western markets. Specifically, North America is projected to experience a 2% decline, while Europe’s revenue is expected to remain flat year-over-year.

However, the outlook is more optimistic in Asia. Japan is predicted to see a 25% rise in console software revenue, driven largely by aggressive pricing for the Switch 2. The console will retail within the domestic market for ¥49,980 (approximately $342), a marked reduction from overseas pricing. That assumes, thanks to robust sales in Japan, that DFC expects 3% growth in console sales for 2025.

Thereafter, DFC predicts that the Switch 2 will go on to sell more than 100 million units by late 2029, an achievement that would make it the best-selling console of its generation. They also suggest that Nintendo is positioning the Switch 2 as an all-in-one gaming hub, potentially leading to more third-party support. The gaming industry more broadly is also getting a big boost, thanks to GTA VI’s 2026 release date driving growth through 2029 at least, DFC says.

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