Nintendo is riding high. The Switch 2 became the fastest-selling home console in US history. Mario Kart World is a system seller. Pokémon keeps breaking records. And yet — a leading industry analyst is sounding a quiet alarm that Nintendo can’t afford to ignore.
Table of Contents
The Warning: What Industry Expert Dr. Serkan Toto Said
Dr. Serkan Toto of research firm Kantan Games, speaking to CNBC, delivered a pointed assessment of Nintendo’s long-term risk. His argument is straightforward — relying too heavily on the same franchises decade after decade is a strategy with a shelf life.
| Nintendo’s Position | Detail |
|---|---|
| Top 3 Franchises | Mario, Zelda, Pokémon |
| Switch 2 Sales | 17 million units — fastest-selling home console in US history |
| IP Revenue | ¥54.5 billion (~$347M) — under 3% of total revenue |
| Other IP Channels | Theme parks, movies, merchandise |
| Super Mario Movie (2023) | $1B+ gross, sequel in 2026 |
| Zelda Movie | In development |
| Risk Timeline | 10–20 years per analyst |
Why Nintendo Should Be Listening
The concern isn’t about today — it’s about 2036 and 2046. Toto’s argument is that Nintendo’s top franchises of Zelda, Mario, and Pokémon, alongside its “treasure trove of IPs,” may not hold the same cultural weight two decades from now. Entertainment history is full of once-untouchable IP that eventually faded — and Nintendo isn’t immune.
Nintendo’s President Shuntaro Furukawa has outlined a strategy combining original entertainment, IP expansion, and long-term consumer relationships. Theme parks, movies, and merchandise are all growing — but they currently account for less than 3% of annual revenue. The real money still flows from hardware and software built around the same handful of characters that have been household names since the 1980s.
The Switch 2’s success could actually make the problem worse, not better. When a formula works this well, the incentive to take creative risks drops sharply. As TechnoSports has noted, Nintendo’s greatest innovations — the Wii, the DS, the original Switch — came from moments of creative desperation, not comfort.
Experts warn that Nintendo’s main strength, its iconic characters, could become a long-term risk if the company doesn’t eventually introduce fresh worlds and new characters that resonate the way Mario and Link did in their time.
FAQs
Is Nintendo planning new IP beyond Mario, Zelda, and Pokémon?
Nintendo hasn’t announced new flagship IPs, but analysts say creating fresh franchises is essential for long-term relevance beyond the next decade.
How much does Nintendo earn from its IP outside of games?
IP-related revenue — parks, movies, merchandise — totalled under 3% of Nintendo’s overall sales in the first nine months of its fiscal year ending March 2026.
