DRAM prices estimated to keep falling in Q2 2023

According to TrendForce, average selling prices of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) decreased 20% from one quarter to the next in Q1 2023 as consumers continued their cautious purchasing habits. By Q2 2023, memory prices are expected to fall 10% to 15% more, with DDR5 prices falling more than DDR4 prices.

While manufacturers of PCs, consumer electronics, servers, smartphones, and graphics cards still have plenty of DRAM ICs on hand and are unlikely to accelerate their purchases before they see increased demand for their goods, Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix have started to adjust their DRAM output to decrease supply and at least maintain current price levels. The TrendForce report claims that as a result, the efforts of dynamic random access memory manufacturers have not yet had a discernible effect on falling prices.

Although PC OEMs and ODMs have significantly decreased their PC DRAM purchases over the last three quarters, they still have enough DDR4 and DDR5 SDRAM in stock to last approximately 9 to 13 weeks.

It’s possible that PC makers will increase their DRAM purchases to take advantage of the low prices, but it’s unclear whether this will help suppliers who have excess inventory.

Despite decreased output, TrendForce predicts a price drop of over 10% for an 8GB DDR4 module in Q2 2023. Analysts predict that the first quarter will see a 10% to 15% QoQ decline in the average selling price of PC dynamic random access memory, followed by a further 10% to 15% decline in the second quarter.

According to historical data from Jon Peddie Research, unit sales of discrete graphics cards typically increase sequentially in the first quarter before declining in the second. However, because desktop GPU shipments sharply decreased in Q3 and Q4 2022, GPU makers have enough GDDR memory chips in stock, which means that demand for such ICs is muted. Due to limited demand, TrendForce projects that the average selling price of a 16Gb GDDR6 IC will fall by 10% to 15% in Q2 2023.

Memory manufacturers increased the percentage of server memory in their product mix as a result of the slowing PC demand. However, this resulted in a sizable buildup of server dynamic random access memory inventory in Q1 2023. Prices for server memory are falling as a result of inventories being adjusted by server manufacturers and cloud service providers. The average selling price of server DRAM is now expected to decrease by 13% to 18% in Q2 2023, according to TrendForce.

Even though manufacturers have reduced production of the necessary ICs, supply still outpaces demand in terms of memory for consumer electronics. In Q2 2023, according to TrendForce analysts, consumer DRAM’s average selling price will decrease by 10% to 15%.

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