Afghanistan’s stunning victory over England has turned Group B into an intense three-way contest for a spot in the semi-finals of the Champions Trophy 2025, hosted in Pakistan.
With just two matches remaining, Australia, Afghanistan, and South Africa are all in contention to progress, while England is already eliminated. The upcoming fixtures—Australia vs. Afghanistan in Lahore on Friday and South Africa vs. England on Saturday—will decide which two teams advance. Here’s a detailed breakdown of how each team can qualify.
If Australia and South Africa Win
A straightforward outcome—both teams will qualify with five points each. The group winner will then be determined by Net Run Rate (NRR). South Africa, who already have an NRR of 2.14, are favourites to finish first, given their dominant victory over Afghanistan.
For Australia to overtake South Africa, they must secure a convincing victory. If South Africa win by just one run after scoring 300, Australia will need to win by at least 87 runs (with the same first-innings total) to surpass them on NRR.
If Australia and England Win
In this scenario, Australia will comfortably finish at the top of Group B with five points. South Africa, despite losing, will still advance as the second team, remaining on three points.
If Afghanistan and South Africa Win
A South African victory over England will guarantee their place at the top of the group with five points.
Meanwhile, Afghanistan will qualify in second place with four points, eliminating Australia from the competition.
If Afghanistan and England Win
This is the most complex scenario. If Afghanistan triumphs over Australia, they will finish as group leaders with four points. The second semi-finalist will then be determined between Australia and South Africa, both of whom would have three points.
South Africa currently have a much superior NRR, which gives them an advantage unless they suffer a heavy defeat. For Australia to overtake them, South Africa must endure a crushing loss to England. For example, if Australia lose by just one run after Afghanistan scores 300, South Africa must lose by at least 87 runs while chasing the same target for their NRR to drop below Australia’s.
If Australia vs. Afghanistan is Washed Out
Rain could play a role in Lahore on Friday, and if the game is abandoned, Australia will move to four points, securing qualification.
If South Africa then defeat England, they will top the group with five points. However, if England upset South Africa, both South Africa and Afghanistan will be tied at three points, and NRR will become the decisive factor. Afghanistan, currently at -0.99, will need a near-impossible scenario—South Africa losing by at least 207 runs while chasing 301—to qualify.
Who Holds the Advantage?
South Africa are in pole position to secure first place, given their high NRR and the likelihood of beating England. For Afghanistan, the path to the semi-finals is clear—they must defeat Australia. However, if they lose, their qualification chances become nearly impossible, relying on highly improbable results.
With two crucial games remaining, the battle for the semi-finals remains wide open. Afghanistan’s historic run continues, but can they pull off another shock to reach the last four?
