We closely examine Brazil’s deeply disappointing Copa America 2024 campaign and consider its implications for the future of one of the world’s football powerhouses.

When will Neymar return from injury?

According to ESPN, Neymar will be unavailable for the FIFA international window in September but may return for Brazil’s matches against Chile away and Peru at home in October.

Where Did it All Go Wrong for Brazil at the Copa America?

The Seleção entered the tournament as second favorites, with the Opta supercomputer estimating their chances of lifting the trophy at 23.2%.

However, the nine-time Copa America champions found themselves licking their wounds after a 4-2 loss to an in-form Uruguay on penalties in the quarter-finals.

Brazil could have avoided that matchup with Marcelo Bielsa’s team and faced Panama instead if they had performed better in the group stage.

An opening 0-0 draw with Costa Rica and a closing 1-1 draw with Colombia, one of the Copa America’s most impressive teams, meant that a 4-1 win over Paraguay was the only bright spot in an otherwise disappointing campaign.

Dorival Júnior, who took over as head coach in January, has asked for time and patience to complete a rebuild, having left several big names out due to lack of form or fitness. Neymar, of course, was absent, having missed almost all of last season due to injury.

But with Brazil also struggling in sixth place in the CONMEBOL qualifying standings for the 2026 World Cup, what do the underlying metrics from the Copa America suggest about the Seleção?

Is Vini Jr. The Neymar Replacement or Not?

Vinícius Júnior had a heavy burden heading into the tournament, tasked with stepping into the shoes of the absent Neymar, who will be 34 by the next World Cup.

However, Vinícius could not ignite the tournament as hoped.

In Brazil’s opening match against Costa Rica, he failed to register a single shot but did create three chances for his teammates, with a respectable expected assists (xA) figure of 0.46, indicating a 46% chance that the opportunities he created could have resulted in goals. Unfortunately, he only managed to create two more chances throughout the remainder of the tournament.

Vinicius did take center stage in the second group match, scoring twice in the victory over Paraguay. His double came from three shots with an expected goals (xG) value of 0.81.

The winger attempted 17 dribbles in that match, completing seven; it was the second-most dribbles attempted by a Brazil player at the Copa America since Opta began recording such data in 2011, behind Neymar’s 19 against Peru in 2015.

Yet that was the only true glimpse of what Vinicius can do, and a reckless booking against Colombia in Brazil’s third match saw him suspended for the tie with Uruguay.

Without their talisman, and even with a man advantage for most of the second half, Brazil was limited to just seven shots and only 0.58 xG.

Sure, Raphinha, Rodrygo, and Endrick—who is a superstar in the making, though he was unable to make his mark at this tournament—are quality attackers in their own right. However, with Vinícius unable to exert the same level of influence he has at Madrid, Brazil’s attack lacked a cutting edge.

Does Dorival Journey Deserve Time?

Dorival has urged Brazilian fans to be patient with his team in the wake of their exit.

“We are undergoing a very important renovation or reinvention of this team,” he said. “I have only coached this team for eight matches, and this is a process that we have to go through. We are aware of the difficulties we will come across throughout the path, but we now lost a match in the knockouts and that wasn’t what we expected.”

But has there been enough promise shown to warrant that patience from fans?

Brazil scored five goals across their four matches, a tally bettered only by five teams. However, it’s worth noting that four of those goals came in a single match.

In terms of xG (expected goals), Brazil accumulated 6.33 during their time in the United States, the fifth-highest in the tournament. Yet, 3.74 xG came from the Paraguay game alone, including two penalties, which means they managed just 2.59 xG across the other three matches, averaging 0.86 per game. The Seleção were also held to two goalless draws.

They mustered 50 shots (12.5 per 90 minutes), fewer than Ecuador (51), Venezuela (55), and Mexico (58), who were eliminated in the group stage.

Defensively, Brazil were miserly, conceding only twice, though they did offer up 3.24 xG against.

Even in the game against Paraguay, Alisson made five saves, the most by a Brazilian goalkeeper in a Copa America match since detailed data began being recorded in 2011.

In midfield, Bruno Guimarães and Lucas Paquetá were industrious, with the latter winning 12 of 15 attempted tackles. However, the midfield is becoming increasingly workmanlike.

This shift is something Dorival has limited control over, as Brazil’s style seems to be less about flair and more about tenacity. Still, it doesn’t feel like the Seleção without that sprinkling of stardust.

It’s not yet time to call an end to the Dorival project, but Brazil did look largely disjointed at times, and it’s the coach’s responsibility to address that.