World Cup 2026: Japan Preview – Why The Samurai Blue Could Be One of the Most Dangerous Teams with Bigger Ambitions

A bright future was predicted for Japan by Akira Nishino when he stepped down as manager after the 2018 World Cup, handing the reins to his former assistant Hajime Moriyasu. The new coach had won J. League titles with Sanfrecce Hiroshima and been lauded for nurturing young talent. He was, Nishino felt, a good fit for Samurai Blue’s next era.

Fast forward to the present, and Moriyasu is preparing to lead Japan into a second consecutive World Cup — something no other manager has achieved — as the first manager to reach 100 games in charge of the team. The question is whether those eight years have genuinely built toward something, or whether the 2026 World Cup will represent another disappointment at the critical moment.

The mood around this squad suggests something has shifted.

The Glass Ceiling: 25 Matches Without a Quarter-Final

Japan hold the record for the most matches played at a men’s World Cup without ever reaching the quarter-finals — 25 games. The round of 16 has been the ceiling, reached in 2002 (as co-hosts), 2010, 2018, and 2022 — each time without breaking through.

In Qatar 2022, the elimination was particularly bitter because of what surrounded it. Japan topped Group E ahead of Spain and Germany — both of whom they defeated 2-1 — but were then knocked out by Croatia on penalties in the last 16. The penalty exit was not the only sore point; it followed a group stage that included a 1-0 defeat to Costa Rica, who had previously been beaten 7-0 by Spain. Japan managed just 0.88 xG in that game despite controlling possession. It was a missed opportunity, and Moriyasu received significant criticism.

“After Qatar, a lot of us started thinking that we’d like to play more proactive football and take the initiative out on the pitch,” captain Wataru Endo told FIFA last month. “Every match we played, we were thinking about how we’d be able to win against the world’s best teams.“

A Shift in Mentality — and Ambition

The results since have backed up that change in mindset. Since October last year, Japan have beaten Brazil, Ghana, Bolivia, Scotland, England, and Iceland. The victory over Brazil was their first ever against the five-time world champions. The 1-0 win at Wembley Stadium made them the first Asian team ever to beat England.

These are not meaningless results. You can only beat who’s in front of you.

And Moriyasu himself has reflected that ambition change in his public statements.

“Until now, whenever we played against a World Cup-winning team, the expectation was that we would lose,” he told reporters in March. “There was the understanding that even if we lost, we could give it our best and put up a brave fight. Now, nobody knows if we’ll win or lose. Considering that, I think it is OK for us to set the aim of winning the World Cup.”

To some, that will sound fanciful. But Japan were the first team to qualify for the 2026 World Cup, doing so in ruthless fashion.

The Qualification Numbers: Historically Dominant

Japan’s qualification campaign for 2026 was the most statistically impressive by any AFC nation.

Their 51 goals were more than double what Saudi Arabia scored from three fewer matches. The 21.1% shot conversion rate ranked second among all teams to have played at least 15 qualifying games, behind only Kyrgyzstan (21.6% from 116 attempts).

The Tactical Evolution: From Back Four to Attacking Force

The most significant development under Moriyasu heading into 2026 has been structural. While Japan broadly operated with a back four in qualifying for Qatar 2022 and throughout the tournament itself, Moriyasu has almost exclusively deployed a back three in qualification for 2026.

The system is built to be aggressive. Two wing-backs push high. Two number 10s support a central forward. At times, the shape morphs into something close to a front five — an overwhelming attacking force that makes them dynamic and difficult to contain.

Their back three is generally supported by two deep-lying midfielders, though in games they have dominated, the space between defence and attack compresses considerably, making the entire team more compact and pressing-intensive.

The emphasis on width and delivery is reflected in their open-play cross numbers. Their 225 open-play crosses were second only to Qatar (265) in the AFC section, but Japan’s success rate of 25.3% was the highest of any team with 15 or more games — and directly explains why their headed goal total was so far ahead of every other AFC nation.

The Strikers: Ueda’s Prolificacy, Ogawa’s Aerial Threat

The attacking evolution has been embodied by two forwards who represent different but complementary profiles.

Ayase Ueda

Ueda is arguably the most complete centre-forward Japan have produced in recent years. At Feyenoord in the Eredivisie this season, he scored 25 goals — only one came from the penalty spot. He averaged one goal every 101 minutes, and among players across Europe’s top 10 leagues, his tally was bettered only by Harry Kane (36), Luis Suárez (28), and Erling Haaland (27).

But what distinguishes him further is his aerial quality. No player in Europe’s top 10 leagues scored more headed goals in 2025-26 than Ueda’s nine — a statistic that aligns perfectly with Japan’s qualification template.

Koki Ogawa

Ogawa (NEC Nijmegen) has emerged as a significant weapon at international level despite limited qualification minutes (314). He scored five headed goals in qualifying — nearly half of Japan’s total. His role is particularly valuable when Japan are chasing games late or struggling to break down stubborn defences.

He demonstrated this in the recent 1-0 friendly win over Iceland, heading home a late winner from the bench. He also scored four headed goals in the Eredivisie this season — a figure only surpassed by two players in the league, one of whom is international teammate Ueda.

Together, Ueda and Ogawa make Japan a genuine set-piece and aerial threat — only Qatar (11) and Australia (8) scored more dead-ball goals than Japan in AFC qualifying.

The Goal-Spreading: Three Players With 10+ Involvements

One of the most encouraging aspects of Japan’s qualification campaign was the distribution of attacking contributions. They had more players involved in 10 or more goals during qualifying than any other AFC team — and all three are in the 2026 squad:

Kubo’s eight assists and Ito’s ten — all from open play — reflect a team that creates from multiple angles and through multiple personalities. The reliance on any single player to carry the attack is significantly lower than in previous Japan squads.

The Injury Concerns: Key Absences That Cannot Be Ignored

Despite the optimism, Japan’s preparations have been damaged by significant fitness issues.

Kaoru Mitoma — the Brighton winger widely regarded as Japan’s most recognisable player — is absent entirely due to a hamstring injury suffered at the end of the Premier League season. Takumi Minamino (Monaco) is missing with a long-term ACL injury. Wataru Endo, although named in the squad, has not played competitive football since February following an ankle injury sustained in Liverpool’s win at Sunderland. Takehiro Tomiyasu has managed just 44 minutes of competitive action since 22 March.

The losses of Mitoma and Minamino are particularly significant in terms of quality and depth. However, Japan’s qualification record of spreading goals and assists across the squad provides some insulation against those absences. The team does not depend on any single player.

Group F and the Bigger Picture

Japan face the Netherlands, Sweden, and Tunisia in Group F — a group that looks genuinely difficult to call. There is no opponent they will be intimidated by, and they will believe they can take points from each.

The group’s competitive balance may actually work in their favour. In a group where everyone takes points off each other, Japan’s quality, tactical coherence, and depth of scoring options give them a credible route to the knockout stages.

What happens after that is the real question. Japan are no longer content with making up the numbers. The results against Brazil, England, and Germany have raised expectations — not just externally, but within the squad itself.

Can genuine expectation be handled the same way as underdog status? The World Cup is about to provide an answer.

Read More: World Cup 2026: Group F Predictions and Preview

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