Does Argentina Have a Lionel Messi Penalty Problem?

Lionel Messi is having a sensational World Cup, but his penalties have left a lot to be desired. Should Argentina look at other options from the spot?

Who Are We to Doubt Lionel Messi?

With every game that passes at the 2026 World Cup, the Argentine gives further credence to the argument that he is the greatest player ever — breaking record after record on the biggest stage of all.

Tuesday’s sensational late comeback in Argentina’s round-of-16 win over Egypt was no different. Messi was, predictably, integral. He set up one goal and scored another to break his own record as the oldest player to score and assist in a World Cup game — the fifth time he has done so, with no other player on record having achieved that more than three times since 1966.

And yet, despite his continued brilliance and the relentlessness with which he still proves a match-winner at 39, one glaring doubt remains.

The Penalty That Nearly Cost Argentina Everything

Just five minutes after Argentina had gone a goal down against Egypt, Nicolás Tagliafico was tripped in the box by Haissem Hassan. It was the perfect opportunity to quash any notion of an upset before it gathered momentum.

But Messi stepped up and placed his penalty at a saveable height — not even halfway between the middle of the goal and the post. All goalkeeper Mostafa Shobeir had to do was go the right way. Once he did, keeping it out was a formality.

Ultimately, the miss didn’t cost Argentina — but it very nearly did.

Egypt had a goal disallowed for a foul at 1-0 up — a decision widely considered extremely harsh. They did then score a second, meaning Argentina were two goals down as late as the 79th minute before mounting a remarkable comeback.

Before Cristian Romero’s goal to make it 2-1, the Opta supercomputer gave Argentina just a 0.6% chance of winning inside 90 minutes. It was the latest any team has ever been two or more goals down in a World Cup game and come back to win without going to extra time.

A Record Nobody Wanted

That was Messi’s second penalty failure at World Cup 2026, after his miss against Austria in the group stage.

He is the first player in World Cup history to miss more than one spot-kick at the same tournament (excluding shootouts), and he still has up to three more games remaining at World Cup 2026. He has missed more penalties — four — than any other player in the competition’s history, scoring just 50% of his attempts.

Why Can’t Messi Score Penalties?

It is impossible not to wonder how a player who has scored goals at every level for two decades — arguably unrivalled at any stage in the history of football — struggles with what is supposed to be the simplest task of all.

Messi can score penalties. He has scored plenty of them in pressured situations — including from the spot in the 2022 World Cup final, and six from six in Clásicos against Real Madrid while at Barcelona.

But high-profile failures from 12 yards have accumulated.

The pattern is unmistakable. And his overall numbers make it even harder to ignore.

In competitions analysed in detail by Opta, Messi has taken 148 penalties for Barcelona, PSG, Inter Miami and Argentina. He has scored 114 of those — a conversion rate of 77.0%.

That might not sound alarming. The context makes it so.

Based on nearly one million shots from 40 competitions between 2018-19 and 2021-22, the likelihood of a penalty being scored is approximately 79%. The expected goals value of a penalty is, accordingly, 0.79 xG.

Over the course of his glittering, trophy-filled career, Lionel Messi has scored penalties at a worse rate than the average penalty taker would have. It is an extraordinary blind spot on an otherwise impeccable CV. He is an elite goalscorer and finisher in open play — his non-penalty World Cup goals of 17 from just 13.1 xG represent an overperformance of 3.9 — but something happens when he steps up from 12 yards.

The Alternatives Argentina Have

There is no questioning Messi’s value to this team. But there is a legitimate argument that Argentina manager Lionel Scaloni should consider removing penalty duties from his star man.

Looking at members of Argentina’s current squad in competitive matches for clubs in Europe’s top five leagues, MLS, the Argentine top flight and for the national side — among those who have taken at least 10 penalties — the picture is clear.

Of the eight Argentina squad members with at least 10 penalties in Opta-tracked competitions, only two have a worse conversion rate than Messi: Lautaro Martínez (66.7%) — who happens to be the only Argentine to have scored a penalty at World Cup 2026 — and Atlético Madrid’s Thiago Almada (64.3%).

Paredes (92.9%), Mac Allister and Enzo Fernández (both 91.7%) and Julián Álvarez (89.5%) all have genuine claims to be Argentina’s best penalty taker, each converting around nine in every ten attempts. All four started against Egypt and were on the pitch to see Messi’s latest miss up close.

Mac Allister is the only outfielder to have played more minutes than Messi for Argentina at this World Cup — meaning he could be expected to be on the pitch at any given moment just as reliably.

The Counter-Argument

There is a counter-argument — and it is not a weak one.

The pressure of taking a penalty at a World Cup is unlike any other context. Messi has taken 32 penalties for Argentina. Every other member of the current squad combined has taken just seven. Paredes is the only one of the four strong alternatives mentioned above to have ever taken a spot-kick for Argentina — and he missed one of his three.

Being handed penalty duties at this tournament would mean replacing Messi in front of a global audience — which would only amplify the scrutiny on whoever steps up. Perhaps none of those players are equipped for that level of pressure, given that none of them have taken anything close to the volume of penalties Messi has at the highest level.

And it should be noted: against both Austria and Egypt, Messi missed from the spot — and still bailed his team out. He has the ability to do that, and he might keep doing it all the way to the 2026 final and a second successive World Cup triumph.

The Question That Won’t Go Away

But as Argentina go deeper in the competition and face stronger teams, second chances may prove harder to come by. Egypt nearly punished them. A more clinical opponent might not be so forgiving.

The numbers suggest there is a conversation to be had. Lionel Messi’s penalty record is, by any objective measure, below average — and notably below the standard of several of his own teammates. Whether Scaloni acts on that before Argentina potentially need another spot-kick in the knockout rounds of World Cup 2026 may prove to be one of the tournament’s defining decisions.

Then again — who are we to doubt Lionel Messi?

Read More: How Do You Stop Norway and Erling Haaland? England Are About to Find Out.

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