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Why Ajax Is Struggling and How They Can Avoid Relegation: A Comeback Plan

Is Ajax Possibly the Worst Team in the Eredivisie? What’s the Story Behind Their Recent Struggles?

Ajax currently finds themselves in a dire situation, occupying the 17th position in the league. Their troubles have escalated rapidly, with a devastating fourth consecutive loss in the league pushing them into the dreaded relegation zone. Adding to their woes, the departure of manager Maurice Steijn has been confirmed.

This precarious position in the league is unprecedented for Ajax, marking their lowest standing since the inception of the Eredivisie in 1954. Their performance in this campaign has been nothing short of disastrous, with only five points gathered from their first seven matches. The crisis at the club even spilled over into violence during the De Klassieker match last month.

During their clash with Feyenoord, the game was halted at halftime as the home team trailed 3-0. This abrupt suspension was a result of a barrage of fireworks thrown onto the pitch by disgruntled Ajax supporters, who were protesting against the club’s management. In a shocking turn of events, Ajax fans even vented their frustration on their own stadium.

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The burning question now is: What has caused such a dramatic downturn at the Johan Cruyff Arena?

Ajaxs Worst Starts to an Eredivisie Season in History Image via Opta Analyst Why Ajax Is Struggling and How They Can Avoid Relegation: A Comeback Plan
Ajax’s Worst Starts to an Eredivisie Season in History, Image via Opta Analyst

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After securing an impressive 36th league title in the 2021-22 season, Ajax appeared to be in a strong position, despite the departure of manager Erik ten Hag in the summer of 2022. They had just clinched their third consecutive Eredivisie title and were aiming to achieve a remarkable fourth consecutive win, a feat accomplished only once before in their history.

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However, what unfolded in the following months was beyond anyone’s expectations. Former assistant coach Alfred Schreuder was entrusted with the responsibility of replacing the beloved Ten Hag during the summer. Schreuder, a 50-year-old with prior experience working alongside his predecessor in Amsterdam, had recently guided Club Brugge to victory in the 2021-22 Belgian First Division during a five-month tenure. Notably, he had received Ten Hag’s endorsement.

In his farewell interview at Ajax, the now-Manchester United boss expressed:

We’ve made progress and become Europe-proof. Schreuder has the advantage that he’s familiar with the club. He was there from the start. That’s a huge advantage, and he knows what to expect. A foundation has been laid that he can use to expand upon.

Ajax Managers Best Points per Game Record Image via Opta Analyst Why Ajax Is Struggling and How They Can Avoid Relegation: A Comeback Plan
Ajax Managers’ Best Points per Game Record, Image via Opta Analyst

Schreuder’s inaugural season as Ajax’s manager turned out to be a bitter disappointment. Despite a promising start, where Ajax won their first six league games, a feat not seen since 1997-98, they eventually finished in third place in the Eredivisie. This was their lowest league position since the 2008-09 season.

The situation took a grim turn when Schreuder was dismissed in January 2023. His departure came after a seven-game winless streak in the league, which left Ajax languishing in fifth place. The decision to let him go seemed reasonable, given that this winless run equaled their longest streak without a victory in the Eredivisie since 1965. To make matters worse, Ajax had a dismal performance in the Champions League, exiting the group stage after losing four out of six games, including a humiliating 6-1 defeat at home to Napoli, their most significant defeat since 1964.

John Heitinga, the head of Jong Ajax, took over from Schreuder for the remainder of the season but could only elevate the reigning champions to third place. It was clear that Ajax had struggled to find their identity after Ten Hag’s departure, which was evident both defensively and offensively.

In terms of defense, Ajax conceded 38 Eredivisie goals in the 2022-23 season, marking their highest in a campaign since 2008-09 and twice as many as they conceded in the previous season under Ten Hag (18). Offensively, their shot attempts also dropped, with 630 shots in the Eredivisie, their lowest in a full campaign since 2015-16 (excluding the shortened 2019-20 COVID-19 season when they attempted 549 shots).

Ajaxs XG Against 2022 23 Eredivisie Teams. Image via Opta Analyst Why Ajax Is Struggling and How They Can Avoid Relegation: A Comeback Plan
Ajax’s XG Against 2022-23 Eredivisie Teams. Image via Opta Analyst

Ajax’s performance in the previous season was disappointing, finishing a considerable 13 points behind champions Feyenoord, marking their largest gap to the title-winners since 2014-15 when they were 17 points adrift. Additionally, their third-place finish meant that Ajax would miss out on Champions League football for the first time in 13 years, a harsh reality check for a team that had once considered itself “Europe-proof.”

To address their troubles, the club’s hierarchy appointed Maurice Steijn as the manager in the summer. Steijn’s successful stint with Sparta Rotterdam, where he led them to a sixth-place finish in the Eredivisie with an impressive goal-scoring record, made him an appealing choice. He emphasized his commitment to attacking football in his coaching philosophy.

However, the reality of the current season has been far from Steijn’s expectations. Ajax now finds themselves in the relegation zone, which is their lowest position in Eredivisie history. Their start to the season has been disastrous, earning just five points from seven games, which is their worst-ever season start, surpassing previous lows in 1964-65 and 1988-89 when they had seven points after seven games. The situation prompted the club to dismiss Steijn this week, with a points-per-game record of just 0.71, making it the worst such rate of any Ajax manager in the Eredivisie.

However, the underlying statistics are even more concerning for the Dutch capital’s team. In five out of their seven games this season, they have been outperformed by their opponents in expected goals (xG). Surprisingly, despite their struggles, they may have been somewhat fortunate this season, as the situation could have been even worse.

Image via Opta Analyst 1 Why Ajax Is Struggling and How They Can Avoid Relegation: A Comeback Plan
Image via Opta Analyst

The statistics from this season indeed paint a grim picture for Ajax. Their sole league victory this season occurred in the season opener against newly promoted Heracles. However, they are currently on an eight-game winless streak across all competitions, a record not seen since the beginning of the Eredivisie in 1954. Scoring only 11 league goals this term, they have netted fewer goals after seven matches in 1996-97 (five) and 1962-63 (10).

In the current season, Steijn’s team has attempted just 110 shots in the league, averaging 13.8 per game. This marks their second-lowest average since comprehensive records began in 2010-11, with only 2014-15 having a slightly lower per-game average (13.6).

In their last match before this month’s international break, a 2-1 defeat to AZ Alkmaar, Ajax managed just six shots on goal, a number they last reached in an Eredivisie match back in January 2016 against Roda JC Kerkrade (five). This meager six-shot total resulted in an xG score of just 0.2, marking their lowest-ever xG total in a league game.

The game against Feyenoord further highlighted Ajax’s decline, with the match resumed behind closed doors after a 3-0 halftime score, ending in a 4-0 victory for Feyenoord and Ajax suffering their joint-largest home defeat in the Eredivisie. In this match, Ajax also had an xG total of just 0.3.

Steijn’s approach in the Dutch capital faced challenges as well. Only two teams in the Eredivisie have won fewer high turnovers than Ajax (48), and just RKC Waalwijk (three) have had fewer shot-ending high turnovers than Steijn’s squad (seven).

Despite having the second-highest possession percentage in the league at 61.4%, second only to unbeaten PSV (66.2%), Ajax’s style of play has often appeared lethargic. They have made 227 progressive passes in the Eredivisie, with 10 other teams making more, indicating a significant amount of unproductive possession in their own half. Moreover, only four teams have made fewer forward passes than Ajax’s tally of 1,309.

Criticism this season has revolved around a perceived lack of urgency, and the numbers certainly do not support Ajax’s performance.

Ajaxs Open Play Touch Map in Dutch Eredivisie 2023 24 Image via Opta Anlyst Why Ajax Is Struggling and How They Can Avoid Relegation: A Comeback Plan
Ajax’s Open Play Touch Map in Dutch Eredivisie 2023-24, Image via Opta Analyst

Ajax’s struggles are not limited to their offensive woes; they also face issues without the ball. They have recorded the lowest number of recoveries in the division (496), with only Go Ahead Eagles and SC Heerenveen having fewer duel wins (both with 396) than Ajax’s 409.

Defensively, they have been porous and error-prone. Ajax has faced an average of 12.8 shots per game in the Eredivisie, marking their second-highest average since records began, only behind 2014-15 when they faced 13.5 shots per game. Notably, no other team in the league has committed more errors leading to goals than Ajax, with a tally of three. The 16 goals they’ve conceded is the most they’ve let in at this stage of a season, equalling their performance in 1964-65.

The club’s sporting director, Sven Mislinstat, was dismissed shortly after the disheartening defeat in De Klassieker, with much of the blame placed on his shoulders. Although Ajax made several signings in the summer transfer window, they have struggled to replace key departed players, and the club’s young talents have yet to find their stride.

Ajax’s roster features the youngest average starting age in the Eredivisie at 22 years and 163 days. Additionally, no other team in the competition has fielded more players, with a total of 28. It’s evident that Steijn was unable to settle on a consistent starting lineup, making the most starting XI changes in the league this season, totaling 26 changes.

Ajax faces a demanding schedule ahead, and they must swiftly reverse their fortunes. They are set to visit Brighton in the Europa League, a team known for their entertaining style in the Premier League. Following that, they will host league leaders PSV Eindhoven. Ajax currently finds themselves a considerable 22 points behind Peter Bosz’s PSV – their most substantial deficit behind the league leaders since 2006 when it was 24 points.

While there is still optimism about Ajax’s long-term prospects, the immediate situation is concerning. They have suffered defeat in each of their last four league games, a streak not witnessed since April 1999. With turmoil both on and off the pitch, the situation in the Dutch capital has rarely been so precarious in recent history.

The assumption that Ajax would remain “Europe-proof” has, in reality, proven not to be foolproof after all.

Ajax’s Comeback Plan

To come out of this challenging slump, Ajax should consider a multi-faceted approach:

Stabilize the Coaching Situation: Finding a coach who can bring stability and a clear vision is crucial. The frequent changes in management have contributed to the team’s instability. A coach who can instill confidence and tactical discipline is needed.

Defensive Improvements: Addressing defensive issues is paramount. Work on defensive organization, reducing errors leading to goals, and strengthening the backline. This includes finding a reliable goalkeeper and ensuring better communication among defenders.

Attacking Efficiency: Ajax’s attacking prowess has dipped significantly. Improve the efficiency of the offense by working on finishing and creating more scoring opportunities. The team should be more clinical in front of the goal.

Player Development: Ajax has a strong tradition of nurturing young talent. Continue to invest in youth development and give promising players more opportunities to grow and contribute to the first team.

Transfer Strategy: Make strategic transfers to fill gaps left by departed key players. Balance the team with experienced talent alongside young prospects.

Team Cohesion: Foster better team chemistry and cohesion on and off the pitch. Strong team spirit can be a powerful force to overcome challenges.

Fan Engagement: Engage with the fans and manage expectations. Fans can provide tremendous support during tough times.

Mental Resilience: Work on the players’ mental toughness and resilience. Teach them how to handle pressure and adversity.

Game Strategy: Develop a clear game strategy that maximizes the team’s strengths and addresses weaknesses. Adapt tactics based on the strengths and weaknesses of the opponent.

Rebuilding Confidence: Help players regain confidence through positive reinforcement, training routines, and motivational techniques.

Assess Youth Integration: Make sure that young talents, who are part of Ajax’s legacy, are gradually integrated into the first team with proper guidance.

Analyze Opponents: Study opponents’ strategies and adapt accordingly. A deeper understanding of the Eredivisie will help Ajax be more competitive.

Remember, turning a team’s fortune around takes time and patience. Ajax should focus on both short-term and long-term goals to ensure they return to their winning ways and maintain their status as a top European club.

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