Tottenham’s Champions League Success Cannot Mask Thomas Frank’s Premier League Failure

Tottenham Hotspur’s 2-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund on January 20, 2026, provided a rare moment of optimism in what has been a disastrous domestic season. The win moved Spurs up to fourth in the Champions League table, giving them one foot in the round of 16 and a genuine chance of avoiding the playoff round. Yet for many observers, this Champions League success merely papers over the cracks of Thomas Frank’s failing tenure at the club.

The Stark Reality of Tottenham’s Position

After a decent start to the 2025-26 season, Tottenham have plummeted down the Premier League table to 14th position following a catastrophic run of just two wins from 13 games. The situation has deteriorated to such an extent that fans are clashing with players, booing Thomas Frank before matches even kick off, and many have entirely lost hope. The toxic atmosphere was evidenced by more than 10,000 empty seats for Tuesday’s Champions League triumph over Dortmund—a damning indictment of supporter sentiment despite the positive result.

Hindsight may be wonderful, but many Tottenham observers would argue none is needed to recognize that Thomas Frank isn’t the right manager for this club. The underlying numbers tell a story far grimmer than even the league table suggests, and they’ve been flashing warning signs for months.

Tottenham’s Dismal Premier League Form

The False Hope of Champions League Progress

The victory over Dortmund provided a temporary reprieve from the crisis. Even accounting for Daniel Svensson’s 26th-minute red card that reduced the German side to 10 men, Tottenham delivered genuinely positive performances. With only 11 available senior outfielders, Spurs played some of their best football under Thomas Frank, taking control early and fully deserving their clean sheet victory.

However, just as last season when Tottenham won the Europa League but finished 17th in the Premier League, progress in Europe cannot mask their myriad domestic problems. For many supporters, the final straw for Frank came long ago, and one good performance against depleted opposition changes nothing about the fundamental issues plaguing the team.

The Dortmund game gave fans a precious chance to cheer, but for every mildly impressive result under Thomas Frank, there have been multiple dismal displays. Consider the five-game winless streak between Spurs’ previous victory—a 1-0 win at Crystal Palace in late December—and the Dortmund match. During this period, Tottenham:

• Failed to build on early leads against Sunderland and Bournemouth
• Lost to teams who had previously gone months without winning (Bournemouth and West Ham)
• Crashed out of the FA Cup after a miserable first half left them too much to recover against Aston Villa
• Produced one of the least inspiring performances imaginable in a dull goalless draw with Brentford

The Arsenal Comparison That Doesn’t Hold Up

Much of the belief that Thomas Frank just needs time stems from the experience of Tottenham’s thriving north London rivals Arsenal. The Gunners struggled domestically for the first 18 months of Mikel Arteta’s reign, finishing eighth in both 2019-20 and 2020-21—the first time the club had finished that low in consecutive seasons since the mid-1970s.

In December 2020-21, with Arsenal sitting 15th following eight losses and just two wins in 12 matches, genuine relegation fears emerged. Arteta was ridiculed for urging everyone to “trust the process” amid some of the worst results in the club’s recent history. Yet five seasons later, Arsenal are in their fourth straight title battle and huge favorites to win it this season after three consecutive runner-up finishes.

There’s likely some trust—or more accurately blind hope—that Tottenham can follow a similar recovery path. This sentiment probably resonates with chief executive Vinai Venkatesham, who held an identical post at Arsenal from September 2020 to July 2024, precisely the period of their remarkable rise.

Arsenal’s Recovery Under Arteta vs Tottenham Under Frank

However, the critical difference lies in the green shoots of hope. At Arsenal, there were signs of progress, not least winning the FA Cup in Arteta’s first season. At Tottenham, aside from a positive 80-minute performance against Paris Saint-Germain in the European Super Cup and a 2-0 win over Manchester City in August, Thomas Frank’s six months have provided virtually no reason for optimism.

The Damning Underlying Numbers

Performances have been almost exclusively terrible, contrasting sharply with Frank’s bullish and, to some, infuriating assertions earlier in the season that his team had played well for significant periods in most games. Those watching found it hard to agree.

When Tottenham have lost—and there have been many losses—they’ve deserved to. When they’ve drawn, they’ve usually been the happier side, sneaking late equalizers in five of their eight draws across all competitions. In another goalless draw at Monaco in the Champions League, goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario was almost entirely responsible for their clean sheet and point, making eight saves in a man-of-the-match display.

Most notably, Tottenham have barely played well even in victory, making the Dortmund win even more surprising. Frank’s Spurs have consistently struggled to retain possession or progress play through the thirds. More often than not, they’ve created far fewer and worse chances than opponents.

Tottenham’s Set-Piece Dependency

Even when creating chances, Tottenham have relied on set-pieces more than any other team, with a higher proportion of their expected goals (36.2%) coming from dead balls than any other Premier League side this season. They’ve managed only 14.0 xG from open play in their 22 games—an alarmingly low figure for a club of Tottenham’s stature and resources.

The Expected Goals Battle

Tottenham have won the ‘xG battle’ (generated more expected goals than their opponents) in just eight of their 22 Premier League games this season. Only Burnley, Fulham, and West Ham have won on xG fewer times. This statistic reveals the fundamental problem: Tottenham consistently fail to create better opportunities than their opponents.

More tellingly, of Tottenham’s eight xG victories, four came at home when they’d gone behind and were chasing the game, with opponents dropping back to defend their lead—against Liverpool, Fulham, Aston Villa, and Manchester United. Spurs lost the first three of these matches and drew with United.

Tottenham’s xG Performance Analysis

These numbers highlight one limitation of xG—it doesn’t account for game state. Tottenham might have won on xG against Liverpool and Fulham, but that largely resulted from going 2-0 down and fighting back late against teams happy to sit on their lead.

The Expected Points Model Tells the Truth

Opta’s expected points model provides perhaps the most damning evidence against Thomas Frank’s tenure. The model simulates match outcomes based on xG values, running 10,000 simulations per game to assign points based on the proportion won, drawn, and lost. Over time, xG data reveals how well teams are creating chances, providing a better indication than the actual table of genuine performance levels.

Throughout Frank’s reign, Tottenham have persistently overachieved compared to their underlying numbers. After nine games of the season, Spurs sat third in the Premier League, but the xPts table had them 13th. No team had a bigger difference between actual and expected positions. Rather than the 17 points they actually had, their underlying numbers suggested they deserved just 11.2 xPts.

Premier League Table vs Expected Points (After 9 Games)

These were clear warning signs from October that things would head south. And so it proved. Tottenham now find themselves 14th in the Premier League while remaining 13th in the xPts table. They’ve sunk to a position their underlying numbers suggested was inevitable months ago. The current table is a far more accurate reflection of Spurs’ actual performances than their early-season position ever was.

The Brentford Parallel That Doesn’t Apply

Back in 2018, at the start of his time at Brentford, Thomas Frank survived losing eight of his first 10 Championship matches because the club examined the data behind his team’s performances and saw they’d been unfortunate to lose so many times. The underlying numbers suggested better fortunes ahead, and the club’s faith was vindicated.

At Tottenham, there are no positive underlying numbers to fall back on. In fact, the data has long hinted that results might deteriorate further. For a manager like Thomas Frank, who places great value in metrics like expected goals, these numbers should be alarming. Unlike at Brentford, where the statistics suggested improvement was coming, at Spurs the statistics have consistently indicated decline.

The Arsenal parallel is worth revisiting here. In Arteta’s first half-season, Arsenal had the sixth-best record in the Premier League but were 13th in the xPts table during that time. Perhaps this similarity is what Tottenham’s hierarchy clings to, but the crucial difference is that Spurs have dropped to their dismal xPts position, while Arsenal never did.

The Road Ahead Looks Grim

Three months have passed since Tottenham sat third in the table, and relegation now appears more likely than a top-four challenge. Saturday’s trip to 19th-placed Burnley has become a must-win game because their next four league opponents are Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle, and Arsenal. Recent displays give little hope that they’ll extract many points—if any—from those matches.

Tottenham’s Upcoming Fixtures

Mitigating Circumstances Don’t Change the Reality

As throughout Frank’s reign, there are mitigating circumstances. Tottenham finished 17th last season, and “fixing” them was always a long-term project that wouldn’t be completed by January. He’s also dealt with a horrendous injury list and has performed well in the Champions League. Even facing an easier set of opponents than most, finishing in the top eight of the league phase represents no easy task.

It’s also worth noting that xG data isn’t always definitive. Aston Villa and Sunderland deserve to be 12th and 19th respectively according to the xPts model but are actually third and ninth. They might fall down the table, but it’s equally possible they continue defying the underlying numbers.

However, the eye test confirms that Tottenham haven’t been very good under Thomas Frank, while both Villa and Sunderland are solid defensively and effective going forward. Spurs have been neither with any consistency.

The Unlikely Redemption Arc

The club’s hierarchy may stick to their guns and continue with Thomas Frank, possibly because few viable alternatives are available right now. History may look back favorably on their patience in the face of near-unanimous public opinion demanding his dismissal. The 2-0 win over Borussia Dortmund might prove to be the turning point where everything improved.

In the midst of a fourth successive title challenge in 2030-31, we may look back in awe of Venkatesham for repeating the trick he pulled off at Arsenal. But the numbers at Tottenham are very worrying, and they have been for months. It would be brave for the club to keep backing Thomas Frank, and doing so will quite possibly prove to their own detriment.

The underlying statistics paint a picture of a team performing poorly, creating inadequate chances, relying too heavily on set-pieces, and consistently being outplayed by opponents. Champions League progress provides temporary distraction but cannot mask these fundamental problems. For Tottenham Hotspur and Thomas Frank, the numbers suggest this partnership is doomed.

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