Tottenham currently boasts six wins from eight games and holds one of the last two unbeaten records in the league, placing them at the summit of the table as they enter the October international break.
It’s undeniable that the transformation under Ange Postecoglou has been nothing short of remarkable. In the span of just one summer, the Australian manager has turned Spurs from a reactive, underperforming team overly reliant on a single player into a thriving, possession-oriented collective. The results achieved so far are a testament to this change.
However, the question remains: just how impressive is Tottenham’s performance? Opta Analyst has delved deep into the data to assess the extent to which Spurs deserve their top position and, perhaps more importantly, how sustainable their success can be.
Read More: Most expensive football players of the Premier League Big 6
The Positive Aspects for Tottenham
Tottenham’s rapid embrace of Postecoglou’s football philosophy is truly remarkable. In his previous roles, he often faced slow starts, and there was an expectation that a Tottenham squad struggling with confidence following an eighth-place finish last season, playing an entirely different style of football, would similarly find it challenging to adapt quickly to Ange-ball.
However, Spurs’ players seemed at ease with this new style almost immediately. In comparison to the previous season, they now have greater possession, win the ball in the attacking third more frequently, and enjoy more touches in the opposition’s box.
Notably, there have been increases in shots, goals, and expected goals as well. Their field tilt, which measures a team’s possession in the attacking third in relation to their opponents, has surged by more than 50%. This suggests that they are keeping the ball high up the pitch and exerting better territorial dominance than last season. While we are only eight games into the 2023-24 season, and these increases may level off as the season progresses, the differences are so pronounced that they warrant discussion even in this early stage of the Postecoglou era.
For those who have been closely following Tottenham’s matches this season, these statistics likely confirm what they’ve observed – a clear and evident change in the team’s playing style. Moreover, achieving greater possession than the previous season and displaying a more attacking approach might not have seemed too challenging.
What’s even more impressive is that Spurs are not only surpassing their own numbers from last season but are also outperforming several of their Premier League competitors. They currently hold the third-highest possession share in the league at 61.4%, trailing only Manchester City (64.4%) and Chelsea (63.5%). Last season, they were ranked ninth in this regard.
Crucially, they are making use of their possession in the right areas, consistently operating in the opponent’s half, a testament to how well they’ve embraced Postecoglou’s football philosophy. They are not simply retaining possession in their defensive third but are pushing their opponents back and playing predominantly in the opposition’s half. Spurs lead the Premier League in successful passes in the final third with 1,192 (averaging 149 per game) and touches in the opposition box with 341 (or 42.6 per game). Their field tilt, measuring possession in the attacking third versus their opponents, stands at the fourth-highest in the league, at 64.8%.
In terms of shots, their tally of 153 (averaging 19.1 per game) is the highest in the Premier League, and they rank third for non-penalty expected goals with 15.1, trailing only Newcastle (15.9) and Brighton (15.8).
A significant portion of these scoring opportunities arises from prolonged spells of possession and a notable ability to navigate their way through the opponent’s defenses. Notably, they’re also executing an effective pressing game, generating chances after regaining possession. Their PPDA (passes per defensive action) of 9.0 stands as the lowest in the Premier League this season, indicating their proactive approach in trying to regain the ball more actively than any other team. Importantly, they’re converting those regained possessions into meaningful actions, ranking second in the league for high turnovers leading to a shot (18) and high turnovers leading to a goal (3).
However, the most remarkable transformation has been in Tottenham’s build-up play. They are fully committed to passing out from the back, expertly moving the ball through the thirds of the pitch and seldom resorting to long balls. Their control of possession across the entire field has vastly improved compared to the previous season, showcasing their remarkable progress under Postecoglou’s guidance.
Postecoglou has instilled a profound sense of confidence in his players, and his bold approach to the game encourages them to take risks, even in areas of the pitch that might make some fans anxious. He emphasizes that his players should not be overly concerned about making mistakes. He understands that errors are part of the learning process when adopting his style of football, and he reassures his players that there will be no repercussions if they lose the ball while attempting to play the right way.
Center-back Micky van de Ven reflected on this approach after a draw against Arsenal, saying, “[Postecoglou] is telling us: ‘Just keep playing. If you lose the ball, it can happen. Just try again. Keep trying, keep trying.'” Postecoglou’s philosophy discourages players from resorting to simply clearing the ball into the stands even if they lose possession.
Remarkably, despite their daring possession-based play, Tottenham has been relatively error-free. They have only committed two errors leading to an opposition shot this season, a statistic better than all but four other teams. Furthermore, they are among the eight teams that haven’t conceded a goal due to a mistake. This is a stark contrast to last season when they committed the most errors leading to an opposition goal (10) in the Premier League.
Comparatively, when Pep Guardiola initiated his tenure at Manchester City in the 2016-17 season, his team struggled with errors as they adapted to his style of playing out from the back. Eight games into that season, City had committed more errors leading to an opposition shot (five) than any other team in the Premier League.
While Postecoglou has been somewhat fortunate in having players who already fit his style, including some inherited from previous acquisitions, the journey to the top of the league hasn’t been entirely trouble-free for Tottenham.
Areas for Improvement for Spurs
Despite the many positive aspects, there are some areas where Tottenham has room for improvement. Guglielmo Vicario has made a significant impact since his arrival, particularly with his ability on the ball, which has allowed Tottenham to play out from the back effectively. This style of play might have been challenging to implement with Hugo Lloris in goal.
However, Vicario has also been noticeable for his shot-stopping abilities, sometimes a bit too much so. This is because, despite their attacking prowess, Tottenham is still conceding a significant number of chances. Seven teams in the league have allowed fewer shots against them (104), and nine teams have conceded fewer shots on target (36). In terms of expected goals against, they have only the ninth-best record at 11.1, and their goalkeeper ranks seventh for saves made with 29. This suggests that while they excel in various offensive aspects, their defensive solidity remains a work in progress.
Regarding Vicario’s performance, it’s worth noting that the expected goals on target model indicates that only four goalkeepers have prevented more goals this season from non-penalty shots on target than Vicario, who has prevented 2.5 goals. In simpler terms, without Vicario’s impressive shot-stopping, Tottenham might have conceded 2.5 more goals than their current tally. This could have changed the outcomes of matches, such as turning a 1-0 win at Luton into a draw or a 2-2 draw at Brentford into a defeat, for instance.
On the flip side of their performance, Tottenham has displayed some inefficiencies in front of the goal. Although they’ve managed to score 18 goals, they’ve also missed 14 big chances, which are defined as clear-cut opportunities that a player is generally expected to convert – ranking them as the fifth-highest in this regard in the division. Their shot conversion rate of 11.8% is also outperformed by seven other teams.
One could view these statistics optimistically, emphasizing the fact that Tottenham has created numerous clear-cut chances, even if they are squandering a significant portion of them. Last season, even eventual champions Manchester City missed more big chances than just two other teams (70), whereas Spurs ranked 11th in this category with 42 misses.
However, there are concerns about certain players’ ability to consistently finish these chances. For example, Richarlison, who has missed four of these big chances, including two crucial ones in the recent match against Luton, hasn’t yet instilled confidence that he will become more clinical if these opportunities keep coming his way. Harry Kane, in the past, was known for being among the league’s top scorers while also missing a substantial number of big chances, simply due to the volume of opportunities he created.\
Additionally, Tottenham has collected the highest number of yellow cards (27) among all the teams in the league. Considering their limited squad depth in comparison to teams like Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool, they cannot handle too many suspensions. Despite not having to play without Yves Bissouma up to this point, he is now facing a one-match suspension after receiving a red card on Saturday, and he is on the verge of another ban with just one more yellow card.
The question that arises is whether Tottenham’s defensive weaknesses, inefficiency in scoring goals, or problems with player discipline will pose significant challenges as the season progresses.
Points to Consider for Tottenham Hotspurs
It’s crucial to consider several caveats to all the statistics and performance analyses discussed so far. The most apparent limitation is the relatively small sample size we are dealing with, which means that the impressive and less impressive statistics may not necessarily reflect the entire season. Over time, we might witness a leveling out of the extremes in Tottenham’s performance.
Additionally, the quality of the opposition faced by Spurs should be noted. They have already played all three promoted teams and Bournemouth, constituting the current bottom four in the league, along with Brentford, who currently sit 15th. It could be argued that dominating these matches against theoretically weaker teams shouldn’t be viewed as a massive achievement.
As the season progresses and Tottenham faces more high-quality opposition, it wouldn’t be surprising if their numbers in terms of possession, pressing, creativity, and territorial dominance decline.
Another notable caveat is the VAR decision in the Liverpool game, where Luis Díaz’s legitimate goal was not awarded. This could have had a significant impact on the outcome, potentially affecting Tottenham’s position in the league.
However, there are counterarguments to these caveats. Tottenham has already faced Manchester United, Arsenal, and Liverpool, three of last season’s top five teams, and has shown domination in various aspects in those matches, securing positive results against all three.
Furthermore, Tottenham has a relatively clear schedule and no European commitments this season. With extended breaks between league games and ample time to prepare on the training ground, they have a favorable setup, especially until the FA Cup begins in the new year.
While it’s challenging to predict how long Tottenham’s current form will continue, their record of 20 points from eight games is impressive, regardless of the circumstances. This start represents their best ever in the Premier League. Despite past evidence suggesting slow starts for Postecoglou’s teams, there are plenty of reasons for optimism regarding Tottenham’s current trajectory.
