Previewing Chelsea’s 2023-24 Season: 5 Crucial Questions to Consider Before the Campaign Kicks Off

Mauricio Pochettino has returned to the Premier League sidelines, this time leading the transformation at Chelsea from the manager’s seat. The significant changes to the player lineup at Stamford Bridge are hard to miss, and as the new season unfolds, there are several pivotal inquiries that demand attention. In the following sections, we delve into five essential queries surrounding the club.

Read More: Chelsea transfer news 2023: Azpilicueta, Mount, Havertz, Kante and Kovacic leave; Jackson signs

From Where Will the Goals Originate?

In the previous campaign, Kai Havertz emerged as Chelsea’s top scorer, netting seven goals in the Premier League. Only three players managed to tally at least four league goals throughout the season: Havertz, Raheem Sterling (six), and João Félix (four). Looking back one season, Mason Mount claimed the top scorer title with 11 goals, while a year earlier, Jorginho led the charts with seven. Despite this, Chelsea showcased their ability to secure triumphs without relying solely on a prolific goalscorer, highlighted by their Champions League victory and two top-four Premier League finishes during this period.

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However, the dire performance of the 2022-23 season, where they mustered just 35 non-penalty goals across 38 matches and landed in the 12th spot, exposed a pressing need for increased goal production and enhanced offensive displays. The transformation of their attacking lineup at Stamford Bridge has been stark, amassing an impressive array of talent within their squad. This was also true in the previous season, yet finding the back of the net proved to be a formidable challenge.

So, what can be anticipated from Chelsea’s offensive prowess in the upcoming season?

To begin with, it is reasonable to expect an improvement from the abysmal showing in 2022-23. Encouragement stems from Chelsea’s underperformance in terms of non-penalty expected goals by 12.7 last season – an unfortunate distinction as the Premier League’s worst goal-scoring underachievement. Statistical analysis suggests they should have registered approximately 48 non-penalty goals. With the inclusion of new goal-scoring talents like Nicolas Jackson and Christopher Nkunku, manager Mauricio Pochettino aims to witness a significantly more efficient execution of scoring opportunities from his squad in the upcoming season.

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Nevertheless, even achieving a tally of 48 non-penalty goals would have only placed Chelsea on par with the relegated Leicester, underscoring the significant gap that existed in their goal-scoring performance. While the new strikers may excel in converting the opportunities presented to them, a substantial enhancement in chance creation is equally imperative. With the considerable turnover in personnel, the attackers must seamlessly integrate and establish effective synergy at a rapid pace if Mauricio Pochettino aims to witness immediate positive outcomes.

Is Pochettino Going to be Granted the Necessary Time?

The proprietors of Chelsea are not renowned for exhibiting patience when circumstances even mildly veer off course. While there was a glimmer of hope that Todd Boehly might be less hasty compared to Roman Abramovich, the recent dismissal of manager Graham Potter – despite weeks of assurances – echoed the same unyielding ruthlessness synonymous with the Abramovich era.

It is widely anticipated that Pochettino’s arrival signifies the commencement of a transformative project, and the majority of fans are likely to exhibit tolerance should Chelsea not immediately vie for the title in his inaugural season. As of the current moment, Chelsea has undergone substantial player departures, with 14 individuals sold or released, resulting in the formation of an almost entirely fresh squad for the 2023-24 campaign. Undoubtedly, the club has procured a substantial measure of quality and boasts a formidable manager in Pochettino; nonetheless, the demand for instantaneous results is a formidable challenge.

Historically, Pochettino has not experienced the swiftest of beginnings at his previous managerial stints. It took several years for his ideas and preferred style of play to take root within the Tottenham Hotspur squad. Similarly, during his tenure at Paris Saint-Germain, despite inheriting a team only a point adrift from the Ligue 1 summit, he couldn’t bridge the gap to clinch the title in the 2020-21 season despite ample time in charge. He eventually secured the league championship the subsequent season, and his remarkable accomplishments with his Tottenham side are well-documented. The subsequent trajectories of both clubs underscore his potential given an extended timeframe.

Within the ranks of Chelsea, Pochettino does possess a remarkable nucleus featuring Thiago Silva, Reece James, Ben Chilwell, Enzo Fernández, and Raheem Sterling. This exceptional core is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping Pochettino’s future Chelsea squad.

Their contributions have been instrumental in recent campaigns. Remarkably, despite being the oldest participant to grace the Premier League stage last season (at 38 years and 248 days in Chelsea’s final match against Newcastle), Silva logged the second-highest outfield minutes (2,352) for Chelsea, trailing only Havertz. Both James and Chilwell have grappled with injury setbacks, yet they stand third and sixth, respectively, among Chelsea players for Premier League goal involvements since the commencement of the 2020-21 season, a noteworthy achievement for defenders.

Simultaneously, Fernández notably participated in a greater number of open-play shot-ending sequences per 90 minutes (5.8) than any other Chelsea player who logged a minimum of 1,000 minutes on the field during the previous season. Remarkably, Sterling spearheaded Chelsea’s goal involvements (nine) despite adapting to a fresh – and underachieving – club environment, having only featured for 1,905 minutes out of a potential 3,420 (equivalent to 55.7%).

Promising groundwork has been established… provided Pochettino is afforded the necessary time to harness and cultivate these elements.

Should Chelsea Start Placing their Faith in Kepa?

A comprehensive overhaul is evident across various facets of the squad, yet Pochettino remains resolute in his endorsement of Kepa Arrizabalaga as the preferred choice for the goalkeeper position, despite the acquisition of Robert Sanchez from Brighton by Chelsea.

“We hold a strong satisfaction with him,” asserted the Chelsea manager following the pre-season stalemate against Newcastle. “He displays exceptional dedication and is adapting adeptly to the fresh demands set by [goalkeeping coach] Tony [Jiménez] and the coaching team. He is truly an outstanding goalkeeper.”

However, confirmation bias presents a notable challenge for most individuals concerning their perception of Kepa. It proves challenging to overlook his initial turbulent seasons at the club, characterized by palpable nervousness under pressure, faltering in aerial situations, and struggling to prevent shots from finding the back of the net.

In the 2019-20 season, his goal prevention rate of -10.7 (indicating that he conceded 10.7 more goals than the average goalkeeper would have, based on our expected goals on target model) significantly ranked as the poorest in the Premier League. His actions of defiance when refusing to be substituted by Maurizio Sarri during the 2019 Carabao Cup final also contribute to a portrayal of a problematic player who appears to challenge authority and lacks likability.

Therefore, at present, when Kepa lets a shot slip through that even your amateur Sunday-league goalkeeper friend claims they could have saved, it’s incredibly simple to concur. Many of us have firmly cemented our judgments regarding him.

However, after experiencing a couple of seasons on the sidelines, Kepa underwent a resurgence during the previous campaign. His exceptional performance, yielding a goals prevented rate of 6.0 in 2022-23, ranked as the third best across the entire Premier League.

Furthermore, Kepa stands as one of the premier goalkeepers when it comes to utilizing his feet. His commendable pass success rate of 80.7% positioned him as the third most proficient among goalkeepers in the Premier League last season (minimum 1,500 minutes played), trailing only Ederson (84.4%) and Alisson (83.4%). Notably, both Ederson and Alisson represent teams that enjoyed greater dominance than Chelsea in the previous season, which suggests they encountered fewer instances of high pressing compared to Kepa.

His distribution and passing abilities were never truly at the crux of the issue. Therefore, if he is now surpassing expectations in terms of shot-stopping, perhaps it’s time for us to set aside our preconceived notions and acknowledge Kepa as the top-tier goalkeeper Chelsea envisioned when they invested £72 million in his acquisition five years ago. While the arrival of Robert Sánchez from Brighton will introduce an element of competition, judging by Kepa’s performances in the last season, he aspires to retain his status as the primary choice goalkeeper.

What is the Point at Which an Abundance of Young Talent becomes Excessive?

The age composition of Chelsea’s squad presents a notable distribution, encompassing players like Silva (38), Marcus Bettinelli (31), Raheem Sterling (28), Kepa (28), Chilwell (26), Marc Cucurella (26), and Nkunku (25). Excluding Romelu Lukaku and Hakim Ziyech (both 30), who are expected to depart the club this summer, these seven individuals are the sole members of Chelsea’s squad exceeding the age of 24.

With the exception of Nkunku, Chelsea’s new signings during the summer and players returning from loan spells are all 22 years old or younger. Notably, the squads for their pre-season friendly matches have prominently featured under-21 players, including figures such as Levi Colwill (20), Bashir Humphreys (20), Malo Gusto (20), Cesare Casadei (20), Carney Chukwuemeka (19), Andrey Santos (19), Diego Moreira (19), and Angelo Gabriel (18). While the utilization of numerous young players in pre-season encounters is standard and not a cause for alarm, the limited availability of experienced alternatives in the squad implies that these youngsters may be compelled to assume significant roles in the upcoming season, which carries a degree of risk.

Pochettino favors a youthful squad and has likely influenced the extensive restructuring of the team that we have witnessed. For players, few managers offer a better learning environment than someone like Pochettino, who places considerable trust in the capabilities of young talents. Nevertheless, it is plausible to consider the potential downside of an excessive reliance on youth.

Last season, Southampton, despite allocating the most minutes (7,687) to players under the age of 21 in the league, experienced relegation in 20th position with a mere 25 points. Notably, three of the youngest teams in terms of average starting XI age in the Premier League were Southampton (25 years and 41 days), Leeds (25 years and 285 days), and Leicester City (25 years and 155 days). All three clubs faced relegation.

Average Starting XI Age and Minutes Given to U21 Players in the English Premier League 2022-23:

Nonetheless, deploying youthful players can also yield exceedingly positive outcomes. One of the constituents among the quartet of youngest teams in the English top flight last season demonstrated remarkable success. With an average starting XI age of 25 years and 51 days, Arsenal ranked as the second-youngest team in the Premier League during the 2022-23 season. Had it not been for a 22-year-old William Saliba’s injury, they might have even contended for the title.

It remains intriguing to observe whether Chelsea will incorporate a touch more experience into their lineup prior to the season’s commencement or if Pochettino will embark on the campaign with a predominance of young players constituting his squad. Opting for the latter approach could entail a certain degree of risk, yet the potential rewards could prove remarkable if the strategy proves successful.

Is Levi Colwill Ready to Make An Immediate Transition to a Higher Level?

Roberto De Zerbi, Brighton’s manager with whom Colwill spent a loan season last year, has been quite vocal about his admiration for the young center-back. Despite being just 20 years old, Colwill emerged as a significant contributor to De Zerbi’s highly impressive Brighton squad towards the end of the previous season. In fact, his impact was so notable that the Italian coach expressed a desire to bring Colwill back to the south coast. Before Colwill extended his Chelsea contract, there were even discussions about De Zerbi suggesting that Colwill could be included as part of a deal to facilitate Moisés Caicedo’s transfer to Chelsea.

However, given Chelsea’s limited depth in the center-back position and considering Wesley Fofana’s recurrence of a severe knee injury as well as Silva’s approaching 39th birthday next month, parting ways with a player of Colwill’s potential, who has already garnered Premier League experience for half a season, would have been a costly loss. The prevailing query revolves around his readiness to secure a starting spot at Chelsea.

Colwill has the potential to offer substantial value for the years ahead, especially considering his left-footed proficiency as a left-sided center-back who excels in ball possession. This attribute was notably on display when he played a pivotal role for England Under-21s, contributing to their victory in the Under-21 UEFA European Championship this summer.

Even after being rested for England’s final group stage match, Colwill ranked fourth among all tournament players in successful passes (201), maintaining an impressive pass success rate of 90.9%.

He exhibits a notably proactive style of play, evident in his prominence during the U21 Euros where he led the tournament in forward passes (161). This statistic significantly outstripped any other player by a margin of at least 38. Moreover, Colwill’s prowess extended to progressive carries – advancing the ball a minimum of five meters upfield – where only two England players, Taylor Harwood-Bellis (60) and Noni Madueke (50), surpassed him. Colwill managed 43 progressive carries in this category.

During his return to the Premier League with Brighton, Colwill maintained an average of 13.9 progressive carries per 90 minutes, standing as the highest figure within his team for the 2022-23 season. Among all players who accumulated a minimum of 500 minutes in the top flight, Colwill ranked among the top for progressive carries per 90, trailing only Aymeric Laporte, Rúben Dias, Allan Saint-Maximin, and Joël Matip.

The evident quality in his playing style and his continued exposure to top-tier football position him favorably to evolve into a top-tier center-back, especially given another season of Premier League experience. Yet, the ultimate decision lies with Pochettino in terms of entrusting him with consistent playtime throughout the upcoming season. Opting for such a strategy would represent another calculated risk that could potentially yield substantial rewards for Chelsea’s new manager.