Jules Kounde’s situation at Barcelona has quietly become one of the most interesting subplots of this transfer window. Once considered undisputed at right-back, the French World Cup star now finds himself genuinely fighting for his place — and the club is reportedly preparing for every scenario. Here’s how it could play out, ranked from most to least likely.

The Four Scenarios

Rank	Scenario	Likelihood
1	Kounde fights for his place against Eric García and Xavi Espart	Most Likely
2	Flick tells Kounde he won’t start, he accepts an offer elsewhere	Likely
3	Kounde decides to leave after assessing his situation	Possible
4	Barça sign a new right-back and ask Kounde to find a new club	Least Likely

1. He Fights for His Spot

The most probable path is also the least dramatic one: Kounde simply competes. Eric García has impressed in the right-back role over the past season, and 18-year-old academy product Xavi Espart has rapidly won Hansi Flick over during pre-season, even earning his senior debut in March. Barcelona has stated they aren’t actively shopping Kounde and would only consider offers if something significant arrives. With genuine competition rather than an outright benching, an in-house battle for minutes is the path of least resistance for everyone involved.

2. Flick Confirms He Won’t Start

If Flick makes it explicit that Kounde is now third-choice behind García and Espart, that’s a different conversation entirely. Kounde is reportedly not against leaving if a sufficiently convincing offer lands, and Arsenal — along with Bayern Munich, PSG, and Chelsea in earlier speculation — have all been credited with interest. A clear-cut demotion, delivered directly from the manager, would likely be the trigger that gets a deal moving.

3. Kounde Decides to Leave on His Own Terms

Related but distinct: Kounde could simply read the writing on the wall himself, without waiting for Flick to spell it out. His contract runs until 2031, and he’s previously stated a desire to stay at Camp Nou — but form, injury history through 2025/26, and mounting internal competition could push him toward requesting a move proactively rather than reactively.

4. Barça Sign a Replacement First

The least likely — but not impossible — scenario involves Barcelona moving first, signing a dedicated new right-back (with Joao Cancelo’s return on a permanent deal already in motion, albeit more as cover on the left) and then informing Kounde he’s surplus to requirements. Given the depth Barcelona already has at the position, actively recruiting another specialist purely to displace Kounde seems like the most resource-intensive route of the four, which is why it ranks last.

For more transfer sagas developing around Barcelona this window, check out TechnoSports’ coverage of the Rodri transfer bid saga and the latest La Liga transfer news.

Bottom Line

Barcelona’s depth at right-back — García, Espart, and a possible Cancelo return — means Kounde’s grip on the position is no longer guaranteed, but the club isn’t pushing him out the door either. Expect this to play out gradually through pre-season and the opening weeks of the campaign, with Flick’s team selections likely to say more than any official statement.