Analyzing Arda Guler: Real Madrid’s Latest Signing of 2023

Real Madrid secured the acquisition of 18-year-old Arda Güler, outmaneuvering their rivals Barcelona in the process. Could this exceptional young talent potentially emerge as Turkey’s most prominent star in several decades?

Read More: Who is 18-year-old Arda Güler – Turkey’s most in-demand youngster?: Career, bio and transfer news

Arda Güler: Turkey’s Rising Football Prodigy Making Waves at Real Madrid

Turkish football has eagerly awaited its next superstar for quite some time. While some point to Hakan Çalhanoğlu as the most recent candidate, many in Turkey believe that the excitement surrounding a young Turkish footballer hasn’t been this palpable since Arda Turan’s breakthrough at Galatasaray in the 2004-05 season.

Real Madrid’s capture of Arda Güler from Fenerbahçe this summer, right under the watchful eyes of Barcelona, raises the prospect of the 18-year-old potentially becoming the first Turkish player to grace the Spanish club’s league football since Nuri Sahin in May 2012.

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So, what sets Güler apart, and why has the powerhouse of La Liga gone to great lengths to secure his signature?

Emerging from the esteemed Gençlerbirliği academy, renowned for its talent production, Güler made the transition to Fenerbahçe in 2019 when he was just 14 years old.

It didn’t take long for Fenerbahçe fans to recognize the promise in their young prodigy. Within a mere two minutes of stepping onto the field as a late substitute, Güler marked his Turkish Süper Lig debut in August 2021 at the age of 16 with an assist – a clever body feint to elude a defender, followed by an exquisite pass that set up a goal for Miha Zajc in the late stages of the victory over Antalyaspor.

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Although his playing time remained limited during that season following the encouraging start, Fenerbahçe wisely shielded their budding talent from undue pressure. They granted him opportunities mainly in the latter portions of games to gain experience in top-tier football. Overall, during the 2021-22 season, Güler amassed a total of 286 minutes across 12 matches, yet his impact was palpable, netting three goals and providing three assists that offered a glimpse of his future potential.

The 2022-23 season witnessed the arrival of seasoned manager Jorge Jesus to the Fenerbahçe helm. However, Güler’s path to regular playtime required patience. Following the departure of Mesut Özil, he was anticipated to step into the role of the creative linchpin within the Fenerbahçe lineup – an expectation that heightened when he inherited the revered number 10 jersey.

Although he notched two goals as a substitute in his first league appearance of the season, a resounding 6-0 victory against Kasimpaşa, Güler’s trajectory towards consistent playtime under Jesus appeared uncertain. In fact, he managed a mere 41 minutes of league action spread across six of his team’s opening 19 Süper Lig fixtures.

Fortunately, Güler found avenues for development in the UEFA Europa League, where he was granted playing time. During one of these encounters – a November encounter with Dynamo Kyiv – he etched his name into history as the fourth-youngest player ever in the competition to both score and assist, achieving this feat at a tender age of 17 years and 251 days.

It wasn’t until the return fixture against Kasimpaşa – the same team he had impressed against earlier in the 2022-23 season – on January 29 that Güler earned his first start in the league campaign. He rose to the occasion in the 5-1 triumph, creating a match-leading five opportunities for his teammates.

The fervor among fans to see Güler consistently feature in the starting lineup grew rapidly. While he found himself on the substitutes’ bench for the subsequent two league fixtures, he missed only two of Fenerbahçe’s final 17 Süper Lig matches of the season.

Given the opportunity to showcase his evident skills, Güler found himself frequently positioned on the right flank in Jesus’ favored 4-1-3-2 formation, despite his natural inclination as a traditional number 10. Surprisingly, a substantial 71 percent of his total playing time was allocated to the role of a right-sided midfielder or winger. In fact, his time spent in a central midfield position even surpassed that in the attacking midfield role.

Evidently, as a predominantly left-footed player, the budding Turkish talent frequently drifted towards the center, wreaking havoc on opponents from central positions. Among players who participated in a minimum of 800 minutes of league action in Turkey during the previous season, Güler ranked third highest among all midfielders and forwards for ball carries per 90 minutes (20), a statistic that underlined his dynamic presence. Additionally, he secured a place in the top 10 for ball carry distance per 90 minutes (206m) within the same player category.

Arda Güler’s Creative Brilliance

Throughout the season, the young prodigy crafted a remarkable tally of 40 goal-scoring opportunities, equating to one chance created approximately every 23 minutes. This achievement stands as the most exceptional average ever recorded by a player in a Süper Lig season since the 2014-15 campaign, eclipsing the prior record held by Mathieu Valbuena’s performance in the 2017-18 season (24 minutes per chance created).

Güler also ascended to the summit of the league in terms of expected assists per 90 minutes, both across all scenarios (0.42) and exclusively from open play (0.29). A comparative analysis of these metrics against players who logged at least 800 minutes across the top five European leagues in the 2022-23 season reveals that only an elite cohort managed to surpass Güler’s per-90 averages. This distinguished group includes luminaries such as Kevin De Bruyne (0.52), Lionel Messi (0.51), Edon Zhegrova (0.45), Rémy Cabella (0.43), Rayan Cherki (0.43), Neymar (0.43), and Jordi Alba (0.43). An impressive association, indeed.

Notably, Güler reserved his most extraordinary creative showcase of the season for the grand finale, orchestrating a captivating performance as the standout player in Fenerbahçe’s 2-0 victory over İstanbul Başakşehir in the cup final on June 11. On this occasion, he masterfully engineered eight goal-scoring opportunities, including a pivotal assist for one of Michy Batshuayi’s pair of goals, a pivotal contribution that propelled his team to a momentous seventh title in the competition.

Just slightly over a week later, Güler’s reputation soared even higher courtesy of a remarkable strike that marked his debut goal for the Turkish national team during their 2-0 victory over Wales in the European Championship qualification match. Positioned on the right wing, he skillfully maneuvered onto his formidable left foot and elegantly curved the ball beyond the reach of Danny Ward from beyond the penalty area. This achievement etched his name in history as the youngest player ever to score for Turkey, achieving this milestone at a mere 18 years and 114 days old.

However, there remains a legitimate concern that a potential transfer to Real Madrid could prove to be a precipitous move at this juncture of Güler’s career. It might be perceived as prematurely timed, potentially foregoing another season of development at Fenerbahçe, where he could further refine his skills. Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid squad is already brimming with talent in attacking roles, making it improbable that Güler would garner substantial first-team opportunities during the 2023-24 season. A potential scenario could involve him being loaned out to expedite his growth. Notably, in the previous La Liga season, only two players under the age of 21 made appearances for Real Madrid: Álvaro Rodríguez (with 75 minutes) and Eduardo Camavinga (accumulating 2,001 minutes).

Average Starting XI Age and Minutes Given to U21 Players in La Liga 2022-23:

Conversely, statistical analysis suggests that Barcelona would not have been an unfavorable destination for Güler’s development. Notably, among all clubs in the top five European leagues last season, only Lyon (with 11,153) provided more playing minutes to players under the age of 21 than Barcelona did (with 8,555). Under Xavi’s stewardship, a notable level of trust was vested in the younger talents, with Gavi (amassing 2,541 minutes) and Alejandro Balde (accumulating 2,476 minutes) emerging as two of the top 10 players for minutes played by under-21 individuals across Europe’s prominent leagues in the 2022-23 season.

However, considering the data at hand, it is plausible that Güler’s exceptional abilities might be irresistible for Ancelotti.