Eddie Howe, along with Jason Tindall, guided Newcastle to a deserving spot in the top four of the Premier League in the previous season. The team, constructed upon a strong base, successfully achieved their goal. However, higher expectations now loom ahead. As European football returns to Tyneside, the future holds intrigue. In our Newcastle United 2023-24 preview, we delve into five queries for Howe and Tindall.
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Can Newcastle United Effectively Manage the Demands of Both the Premier League and the Champions League?
Being a Newcastle United supporter must be incredibly thrilling at the moment. After securing a top-four placement in the Premier League, a feat not accomplished since 2002-03, the prospect of participating in the UEFA Champions League has become a reality.
Two decades ago, Newcastle endured disappointment when they were eliminated by Partizan Belgrade at the third qualifying round stage, a heartbreak they won’t have to face this time. This season, they will directly enter the group stage, and the return of Champions League football to St James’ Park promises an electrifying atmosphere.
Nevertheless, the inclusion of European competitions translates to more matches and less preparation time. Eddie Howe executed an impressive transformation, propelling Newcastle from battling relegation in one season to outperforming teams like Liverpool, Tottenham, and Chelsea in the next. A significant advantage they enjoyed was the absence of European commitments, allowing them to prioritize their league performance while other teams dealt with various distractions throughout the season.
Howe might view their League Cup journey as advantageous groundwork, as evidenced by their appearance in the final against Manchester United last season. They demonstrated their capability to perform both midweek and during weekends. However, gearing up for matches at prominent venues like the Allianz Arena or Santiago Bernabéu could prove more intricate than preparing for encounters at Prenton Park against Tranmere Rovers or hosting Leicester City.
A lesson they must heed is avoiding a recurrence of their sluggish start from the previous season. Despite the campaign’s strong finish, it’s easy to overlook their initial struggles. Following an opening-day victory over Nottingham Forest, Newcastle underwent a six-game winless stretch in the Premier League (drawing five and losing one). While they managed to recover admirably, their focus will likely be on amassing maximum points before their Champions League journey commences.
Last season, Howe utilized a total of 30 players across all competitions. This figure, when compared to teams engaged in Champions League action, trailed only slightly, with a mere three-player difference from both Chelsea and Liverpool. Newcastle matched Tottenham’s usage and were five players fewer than Manchester City. It’s noteworthy that Manchester City triumphed in the Champions League and advanced significantly in the FA Cup. This data suggests encouraging aspects in terms of squad depth.
In a recent conversation with Sky Sports, Howe emphasized, “There are numerous uncertainties ahead of us, but our present focus is on the Premier League. We have a hectic schedule of fixtures before the commencement of the Champions League. Instead of fixating on distant horizons, let’s concentrate on our immediate objectives. The Premier League itself poses significant challenges, without deviating from our path.”
His observation is indeed accurate.
Have They Sufficiently Demonstrated Their Financial Strength?
When Newcastle underwent a takeover by a consortium led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund in 2021, there were speculations that football icons like Kylian Mbappé, Erling Haaland, and Lionel Messi might soon don the iconic black and white jersey. While this scenario hasn’t quite materialized, significant financial resources have indeed been injected.
One could argue that this capital infusion has been employed judiciously, evident in acquisitions such as Kieran Trippier, Sven Botman, Nick Pope, Bruno Guimarães, and Alexander Isak, all of whom have played a pivotal role in propelling the team to higher echelons in record time.
Having secured a spot in the Champions League, many anticipated that the owners’ substantial wealth would be further harnessed to propel the team into the next phase of its development. However, at the time of writing, Newcastle has welcomed just two new players. Admittedly, the estimated combined transfer fees are close to £100 million, yet most probably expected more than just Sandro Tonali and Harvey Barnes to join the ranks.
Nevertheless, both signings hold intrigue. Even though the expenditures haven’t been extravagant, acquiring a standout player from AC Milan can be seen as a significant strategic move, and Barnes has the potential to introduce a fresh dimension to their offensive gameplay. The 25-year-old emerged as the top scorer for Leicester in the previous season, netting 13 goals from 8.9 expected goals (xG), despite the club grappling with relegation.
Southampton’s right-back, Tino Livramento, has been officially confirmed as a new addition. He successfully underwent medical examinations yesterday and was even in attendance at St. James’ Park during their pre-season match against Villarreal on Sunday (August 6). Reports have indicated a potential transfer fee of up to £40 million. Despite Kieran Trippier’s pivotal role last season, it’s likely that Livramento will initially serve as a backup option.
While the transfer window remains open, and as long as they adhere to Financial Fair Play regulations, it wouldn’t be surprising to witness Newcastle making one or two more significant acquisitions before September. The team’s roster still appears robust, but if they fail to secure another top-four finish, one might speculate whether they will regret not capitalizing further on the opportunities presented by Champions League football within the transfer market.
Which Midfield Combination Will Prove to be the Most Effective?
The inclusion of Tonali adds a notably captivating aspect, especially considering that it will require Howe to alter the composition of his midfield, a step he largely refrained from taking during the 2022-23 season.
In the previous Premier League campaign, four individuals, primarily operating in central midfield, accumulated a minimum of 28 starting appearances and a total of 30 outings overall. Among those apart from Joe Willock, Joelinton, Sean Longstaff, and Guimarães, the sole player to feature in a central midfield starting role under Howe was Elliot Anderson, who did so on just three occasions.
Tonali is expected to secure a regular starting position, while Guimarães’ role remains unchallenged. This implies that Willock, Joelinton, and Longstaff will likely rotate for the remaining spot, and Anderson appears poised for a potentially breakout season.
Forecasting which version of Tonali will emerge at Newcastle is a complex task. In the previous season, he played a pivotal role in AC Milan’s Serie A title triumph, contributing five goals from midfield. However, his goal tally dipped to two last season, while his assists surged to seven compared to the two from the season prior. Furthermore, he demonstrated an uptick in chance creation, amassing 62 opportunities, an increase from the previous count of 44.
Guimarães embodies a versatile midfield presence, which implies that Tonali has the potential to mold himself into various roles. His challenge lies in performing at a high standard to justify displacing one of Howe’s consistent choices. Given his experience in the Champions League, including a semi-final appearance last season, Tonali might feature more prominently in European fixtures once the group stage commences.
Willock boasted the highest passing accuracy among Newcastle midfielders in the Premier League, standing at 85.1%. Additionally, he shared the highest number of goal involvements (nine – comprising three goals and six assists) with Guimarães. Notably, Willock also created twice as many significant goal-scoring opportunities (12) as any other player.
Joelinton emerged as the leading scorer among his midfield counterparts, netting six goals. He also excelled in interceptions, registering 48. Meanwhile, Longstaff may not have topped the primary metrics, but he still managed to provide four assists, only one fewer than Guimarães. His pivotal role in Newcastle’s League Cup semi-final victory over Southampton, highlighted by his crucial brace in the decisive second-leg match at St James’ Park, should not be overlooked.
Anderson showcased his prowess off the bench last season, proving to be an impactful 20-year-old from Whitley Bay. He averaged slightly over two chances created per 90 minutes, surpassing others such as Willock (1.4). Furthermore, he maintained a rate of 2.5 tackles per 90 minutes, second only to Guimarães (2.6). Anderson’s commendable performance during the pre-season tour of the United States further cements his eagerness to seize more opportunities in the upcoming season.
Will They Manage to Maintain a Strong Defensive Foundation?
Newcastle exhibited an impressive resistance to conceding goals in the previous season. Their defensive prowess was second only to champions Manchester City, with both teams allowing a mere 33 goals. In fact, the closest defensive records in the league were shared by Arsenal and Manchester United, each conceding 43 goals.
Although Nick Pope’s exceptional goalkeeping undoubtedly played a role, the team’s overall defensive solidity was pivotal. In terms of expected goals against (xG), only Manchester City (33.1) boasted a lower figure than Newcastle’s 40.1 in the Premier League.
This evident solidity was particularly pronounced in their defensive lineup, which displayed even greater consistency than their midfield. Dan Burn, Fabian Schär, Botman, and Trippier all commenced at least 35 league matches, with the latter playing the full 38.
During the 2022-23 Premier League season, Newcastle encountered defeat in merely three out of the 31 matches in which Burn, Schär, Botman, and Trippier shared the starting lineup (winning 17 and drawing 11).
The sole addition to the defensive ranks is Livramento. The former Chelsea player has been acquired to alleviate the workload on Trippier, who will reach 33 years of age in September. The ability to consistently field the same defensive quartet last season undoubtedly contributed to their stability, yet the question looms: Can Howe replicate this continuity amid the heightened match schedule?
This robustness also stems from the collective diligence of the remaining team members. As previously highlighted, their midfield strength plays a pivotal role in upholding this defensive prowess. However, they must also acknowledge the fact that increased attention is now directed towards them, as their status has evolved from flying under the radar – a description arguably fitting last season – to being a more conspicuous target after their evident improvement.
Newcastle impressively registered eight clean sheets in nine matches across all competitions immediately following the conclusion of the World Cup. Yet, starting from January 24 onwards, they managed only two clean sheets in their final 20 fixtures. Howe’s aspiration is to rediscover the formula that laid the initial groundwork for their top-four achievement.
Should It Be Isak, Wilson, or a Combination of Both?
Last season, Newcastle’s prowess extended beyond just defensive efficiency; their strikers showcased their ruthlessness as well.
With a reported fee of £60 million (€70 million), Alexander Isak’s arrival from Real Sociedad was marked by a rapid impact, netting two goals in his initial three matches, which included a debut strike against Liverpool at Anfield. An unfortunate thigh injury sidelined him until January, yet upon his complete recovery, he embarked on a remarkable spree, notching seven goals in seven matches spanning from mid-March to late April. His goal production waned after his positional shift to the left, as Howe sought to reintegrate Callum Wilson into the lineup. Nevertheless, Isak, the Swedish international, continued to deliver notable performances.
For Howe, the forthcoming decision poses a challenge, particularly in light of Wilson’s impressive form during the previous season. The ex-Bournemouth player achieved an outstanding tally of 18 Premier League goals, the highest for a Newcastle player since the 2003-04 season, when Alan Shearer struck 22 times.
As indicated above, Wilson exhibited a penchant for securing his goals from central positions, with nearly all of his strikes originating from within the width of the goalposts.
He accomplished his impressive tally of 18 goals in just 31 appearances, of which a mere 21 were starts. Across the league, only Erling Haaland (0.75) held a higher non-penalty expected goals (xG) value per 90 minutes than Wilson (0.72).
While goal-scoring wasn’t always a constant for Howe’s team, it’s worth noting that three teams finishing below Newcastle managed to outscore their total of 68 goals. However, Newcastle frequently found the back of the net multiple times, recording four or more goals in eight league matches last season – a feat accomplished as many times as in their preceding 10 top-flight campaigns combined.
An aspect Howe must take into account is his effective replacement of Allan Saint-Maximin with Barnes. The former, who departed for Saudi Pro League outfit Al Ahli, contributed five assists from 31 created chances (including eight significant opportunities) in the previous season. In contrast, Barnes managed only one assist from 19 chances created (including five major opportunities). Notably, Barnes outperformed Saint-Maximin in the goal-scoring department, holding a 13-1 advantage.
Howe also possesses the flexibility of deploying Isak on the left and Wilson in a central role, a configuration he experimented with toward the conclusion of the prior season. Whether it involves one, the other, or both players, Newcastle enthusiasts can undoubtedly anticipate celebrating a greater number of goals from Isak and Wilson in the upcoming 2023-24 season.
