Last season, under Erik ten Hag’s expert guidance, Manchester United finally found their long-lost team identity and unleashed the true potential of their star players. With an impressive trophy triumph after six years and a triumphant return to the UEFA Champions League, it seemed like the perfect fairy tale. But hold your breath, for the Premier League is an unyielding battlefield, where every moment counts.
As we eagerly anticipate the upcoming 2023-24 season, we can’t help but wonder about the thrilling ride ahead for Manchester United. What challenges lie ahead? Can they sustain the momentum of Ten Hag’s dazzling debut campaign? Let’s embark on a quest to unravel five burning questions that will shape the destiny of the Red Devils.
Can We Expect Further Glimpses of Ten Hag’s ‘Philosophy’ on Display for Manchester United?
After Ten Hag’s appointment as Manchester United’s coach, fans and journalists were particularly interested in the team’s style of play, given his successful track record with Ajax. His distinctive and effective approach on the field was undoubtedly one of the reasons he was chosen for the position.
Some may have naively expected an immediate implementation of his system, even without major squad changes. However, Ralf Rangnick’s candid admission last year revealed the reality: Ten Hag inherited a squad shaped by several managers with diverse ideas, including his own.
Despite the challenges, Ten Hag was transparent about his desired style of play. During the 2022 pre-season, he expressed his emphasis on pressing relentlessly and playing proactive football. Flexibility was also key, understanding that sometimes the team might need to drop back if high pressing was not feasible.
In his inaugural press conference as Manchester United’s boss in May 2022, Ten Hag acknowledged that players play a crucial role in shaping the team’s style. He aimed to create the ideal lineup that maximizes the players’ potential and ensures they feel comfortable in their roles, ultimately striving for collective success.
While Ten Hag sought to replicate the attacking, possession-oriented football he implemented at Ajax, he was realistic about the adjustments required for the more competitive and diverse Premier League.
Directly comparing the two teams was a challenging task, considering Ajax’s dominance in a less competitive league. However, a closer look at their playing style in possession revealed some striking similarities, indicating that Ten Hag’s influence was indeed making its mark at Manchester United.
Last season, Manchester United’s new signings, such as Christian Eriksen, Casemiro, and Lisandro Martínez, played a pivotal role in enhancing the team’s ability to build from the back and progress through the lines effectively. However, it’s essential to acknowledge that the Premier League’s standard is significantly higher than the Eredivisie, and many clubs possess the capability to play a similar style.
While United’s output might appear similar to Ajax on graphics, we must consider the league context; Ajax stood as outliers in the Eredivisie, whereas United is still striving to reach that level in the English top flight. Though progress has been made, there is a long road ahead for improvement.
In specific aspects like sequences involving 10 or more passes, United fell behind five other Premier League clubs, indicating the need to further refine their approach. Their performance in pressing, measured by passes per defensive action (PPDA), ranked eighth lowest in the division, while Ajax displayed a more intense pressing game with a PPDA of 9.0 during the 2021-22 season.
Last season, Manchester United experienced a notable increase in high turnovers compared to the previous season. In the 2021-2022 season, they recorded 265 high turnovers, ranking them 13th in the league. However, under Ten Hag’s influence, the team significantly improved in this aspect, registering 328 high turnovers in the 2022-2023 season, which placed them 6th in the Premier League. This surge in high turnovers is a strong indicator of Ten Hag’s impact and his ability to make a positive impression on the team’s playing style.
To What Extent Could Onana Make An Impact?
One of Ten Hag’s primary acquisitions is André Onana, whose arrival has the potential to be a game-changer for Manchester United. As they strive to become a more legitimate possession-based team, the Cameroonian goalkeeper could be their most crucial signing of the summer, surpassing all others.
Last season, there was significant debate and media attention surrounding United’s goalkeeper situation, especially during the final weeks of David de Gea’s 12-year tenure at Old Trafford. It was evident that changes were needed, not just concerning playing short from the back, but also in terms of the overall awareness and vision of the goalkeeper when in possession.
Ten Hag addressed the importance of a goalkeeper’s decision-making and distribution after a particular incident involving Christian Eriksen, emphasizing the need for playing long and inviting pressure when necessary. Onana’s style of play aligns perfectly with this philosophy. He is not only technically gifted but also possesses exceptional awareness on the ball.
Last season, he showcased an impressive 93.8% pass accuracy in his own half, a statistic bettered by only 12 goalkeepers across Europe’s top five leagues (minimum 1,000 minutes played). Remarkably, Onana attempted more passes per 90 minutes (28.8) than three of those 12 goalkeepers. In comparison, De Gea completed 88% of passes in his own half from 19.3 per 90 minutes.
With Onana’s expertise in distribution and his ability to play on the edge, he brings a new dimension to United’s goalkeeper position. While some fans may need time to adjust to his style, his skills could prove to be instrumental in the team’s journey to becoming a more fluid and effective possession-oriented side under Ten Hag’s guidance.
Onana’s impact extends beyond his passing accuracy, as he also played a crucial role in 1.7 open-play shot-ending sequences per 90 minutes in Serie A last season. This impressive stat was outperformed by only two goalkeepers across the top five European leagues (with a minimum of 650 minutes played).
Additionally, he showcased his ability to create chances, contributing to four combined chances created and secondary chances created, which includes the pass leading to the pass that sets up a shot. Among Serie A goalkeepers, only Lazio’s Ivan Provedel (who played significantly more minutes) surpassed Onana in this aspect.
Furthermore, Onana’s adaptability is a vital asset for Manchester United. Not only is he accustomed to handling a significant amount of possession, but he also possesses the versatility to play more direct when necessary. His passing range and reliability make him a valuable addition to the team’s playing style, particularly in their efforts to play out from the back.
It’s essential to acknowledge that there might be an adjustment period for Onana in the Premier League, given its higher intensity and speed compared to Serie A. He will also need time to familiarize himself with some of his new teammates, although having previously played with Lisandro Martínez at Ajax may provide some level of familiarity. Nevertheless, once he settles in, Onana’s presence is expected to significantly improve United’s ability to build from the back. In a league where pressing is a prominent trend, his contributions are likely to yield considerable gains, providing a more robust and effective approach to United’s possession-based game plan.
Will Ten Hag be Able to Extract Even Greater Potential from Sancho and Antony?
United boasts a pair of wingers, Antony and Jadon Sancho, who collectively command a hefty price tag exceeding £150 million. While their contributions thus far may not entirely justify this substantial investment, it would be premature to label them as lost causes.
Antony, having completed a single season in English football, has exhibited evident skills and an admirable work ethic. While his debut season might not have been a blazing success, his untapped potential remains a valuable asset. There is ample room for growth, and the upcoming season holds the prospect of him elevating his performance to new heights.
On the other hand, Sancho is embarking on his third season with United, yet the assessment of his impact remains inconclusive. His performance at Borussia Dortmund, in terms of both quality and statistics, has not been replicated at Old Trafford. However, the latter part of the 2022-23 season displayed glimmers of promise.
Sancho, a product of Manchester City’s academy, underwent a period of absence from United last season, during which he focused on improving his mental and physical well-being. His hiatus, spanning from 22 October to 1 February, allowed him the space and patience he needed, with Ten Hag offering his support.
Upon his return, particularly considering the worrisome nature of his absence, Sancho demonstrated a generally positive resurgence in form during the latter stages of the season. Notably, he concluded the campaign with the second-highest number of chances created (44) and expected assists (4.1) among all United players in the Premier League.
Moreover, his goal tally of six goals was surpassed solely by Marcus Rashford (17) and Bruno Fernandes (8). These promising signs suggest that with time and continued support, Sancho could yet evolve into a significant asset for Manchester United.
In fact, his 0.26 expected goals assisted (xG assisted) per 90 minutes for the season placed him among an elite group, bettered by only four players in the entire Premier League (with a minimum of 25 chances created). Additionally, Sancho’s combined average of 4.1 chances created or secondary chances created per game stood second only to Fernandes (4.2) in the top flight, with a minimum of 1,000 minutes played.
This statistic highlights his ability not only to locate his teammates in advantageous positions but also his active involvement in United’s overall build-up play. Despite some fans finding his playstyle in the final third occasionally frustrating due to its measured pace, these numbers provide compelling evidence that he is making a positive impact.
Comparatively, Antony exhibited a slightly lower level of creativity and involvement in build-up play, contributing 17 fewer chances created than Sancho despite spending 117 more minutes on the field. Nevertheless, his combined average of 2.5 chances created or secondary chances created per 90 minutes remained commendable, ranking him 15th among players who played at least 1,000 minutes last season.
This variance in creative output can be partially attributed to decision-making. Antony has shown a propensity to take shots frequently, with an average of 3.6 attempts per 90 minutes during the 2022-23 season. Remarkably, Rashford (also 3.6) was the only other United player who featured for at least 600 minutes and maintained an average of over 3.0 shots per game. Antony’s inclination to shoot underscores his attacking mindset and ambition on the field.
This translated into an expected goals (xG) value of 6.8 (excluding penalties), which ranked him third in the United squad, behind only Rashford and Fernandes. However, he managed to convert only four of these opportunities into goals. While it’s unlikely that his shooting tendencies will undergo a drastic change, the key lies in refining his positioning and decision-making to make the most of these chances.
Interestingly, the average expected goals (xG) value of his shots was relatively low at 0.09. This figure placed him below other players in the United team, including Anthony Martial (0.23), Sancho (0.20), Rashford (0.15), Wout Weghorst (0.14), Alejandro Garnacho (0.13), and several others.
Returning to the initial question, Ten Hag indeed has the potential to extract more from both Sancho and Antony. However, this process will not be devoid of selection challenges. With arrival of Rasmus Højlund, three out of the four advanced roles in the team seem to be already filled – Højlund, Rashford, and Fernandes occupying those positions. This leaves the right-wing position as the one that requires further competition.
The responsibility now falls upon Sancho and Antony to demonstrate their value through consistent and impactful performances as early as possible. Their ability to seize opportunities and showcase their potential will play a pivotal role in determining their standing within the team’s lineup under Ten Hag’s management.
Could Mount Replace Eriksen in the Lineup?
Undoubtedly, Eriksen’s addition to Manchester United last summer was a significant positive. He swiftly introduced a level of ball-playing sophistication and control to the midfield, addressing a notable void that had existed. This adjustment also helped alleviate some of the creative pressure on Fernandes.
Once Casemiro had found his rhythm and secured a place in the starting lineup, the trio of Casemiro, Eriksen, and Fernandes provided Manchester United with a midfield dynamic that arguably had been lacking for a considerable period. While the contributions of the other two were more prominently recognized, Eriksen played an integral role in this transformation.
The three players commenced together in 25 matches across various competitions last season, resulting in a remarkable 76% win rate for United and only two losses. In the 37 games where at least one of them was absent from the starting XI, the win rate dropped to 59.5%, accompanied by 10 defeats.
Eriksen’s absence due to injury, spanning over two months from late January to early April, led to a noticeable shift upon his return. There was a perception that he often struggled to maintain his energy levels. Prior to his injury, Eriksen averaged nearly 79 minutes per game across 19 league matches. However, post-injury, his average dwindled to approximately 56.5 minutes over a span of 10 games.
While this decline is not to be criticized, as it’s natural to require time to regain full form following an extended injury layoff, concerns arise that Eriksen’s influence might have diminished. His average touches per game decreased from 62.1 pre-injury to 51.9 post-injury. Looking ahead to the upcoming season, the apprehension is whether this trend is indicative of a broader development or merely a temporary setback.
Perhaps if Manchester United’s backup options had been more akin to Eriksen’s style instead of the dissimilar pair of Fred and Scott McTominay, the situation would have been less problematic. With this context, it’s evident why Ten Hag was resolute in securing Mason Mount’s arrival.
Despite some United fans not initially expressing overwhelming enthusiasm for the England international’s transfer, it’s important to note that Mount’s disappointing individual performance in the 2022-23 season at Chelsea may have been influenced by the upheaval at Stamford Bridge during that time. Given the circumstances, there might well be a caveat attached to that particular season.
Indeed, the adoration for Mount among coaches is well-founded, and his exceptional performance during the 2020-21 and 2021-22 Premier League seasons validates this sentiment. He cemented his position as one of the league’s standout players during this period.
In terms of creative contributions, Mount’s prowess stood out prominently. He secured a commendable fifth place in chances created, amassing an impressive total of 145. Furthermore, his expected assists tally of 13.8 ranked him fourth, showcasing his adeptness at setting up goal-scoring opportunities for his teammates. Notably, his influence extended beyond attacking play, as indicated by his 21st ranking for possession regains in the final third with 40 instances. This feat held even greater significance considering he achieved this while operating within a Chelsea side that implemented the second-most intense press in the division, with a PPDA (passes per defensive action) of 10.2.
Mount’s multifaceted contributions extended to his role in the team’s general build-up play. He asserted his presence by ranking seventh in total shot-ending sequence involvements with an impressive count of 375. Moreover, when assessed on a per-90-minute basis (minimum 4,000 minutes played), he held the fifth spot with a rate of 6.5 involvements in the Premier League.
These statistics underline Mount’s versatility and proficiency across various aspects of the game. His ability to impact both attacking and defensive phases of play, along with his significant involvement in shot-ending sequences, highlights his pivotal role within the team’s structure. As such, the appreciation for Mount’s abilities and the anticipation of his potential impact at Manchester United under Erik ten Hag’s guidance are certainly well-founded.
While Eriksen boasts undeniable talent, his skill set may not encompass the same breadth of attributes – and that’s perfectly acceptable. There’s a compelling case to be made that acquiring a player like Mount could optimize Eriksen’s exceptional abilities by reducing the physical demands placed on him.
In the trio of Casemiro, Fernandes, and Eriksen, it’s reasonable to assume that Eriksen could potentially witness a reduction in his playing time due to Mount’s arrival. However, it’s important to bear in mind that under Ten Hag’s management, the team navigated through an extensive 62-game season, participating across various competitions. The upcoming 2023-24 season will similarly see them compete in multiple tournaments initially, thereby creating ample opportunities for various players to contribute.
While it’s not definitive that Eriksen won’t contemplate his options if Sofyan Amrabat’s signing materializes, it’s noteworthy that Manchester United has encountered challenges in building upon promising seasons over the past decade. Presently, there appears to be a concerted effort to propel the team forward, necessitating a robust and well-rounded squad depth to sustain the momentum.
What Significance Will the Acquisition of Rasmus Højlund Hold?
The overall sense of optimism surrounding Man Utd’s 2022-23 season was rooted in the stark recognition of their deficiencies and vulnerabilities, which held the promise of being relatively straightforward to rectify. Some of these shortcomings, as highlighted in this article, encompassed the goalkeeper predicament and the imperative to bolster midfield depth.
However, arguably even more conspicuous was the pressing requirement for a fresh injection of talent in the striker position. This aspect of the team has, in fact, raised suspicions for a number of years. The last bona fide No.9 with potential they acquired was Romelu Lukaku back in 2017. Although the outcome of that move wasn’t as expected, Lukaku, at the time, presented a striker who had proven himself in the Premier League and possessed the advantage of youth.
Subsequently, United’s options in this area have been confined to either short-term loan solutions or players whose careers were winding down. The likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Edinson Cavani, Odion Ighalo, and Wout Weghorst have all made fleeting appearances without leaving a substantial impact. This has led many fans to vocally advocate for the recruitment of either a world-class center-forward in their prime or a highly promising prospect brimming with potential.
Despite aspirations for a Harry Kane acquisition failing to materialize, the emergence of Rasmus Højlund as the primary target has ignited fresh hope. The 20-year-old Danish international underwent medical last week and his signing has been finalized and made official for a deal worth to be valued at up to £72 million this week. Undoubtedly, this impending deal holds the potential to exhilarate supporters and inject renewed vigor into the team’s striking department.
Manchester United’s tally of 58 goals in the previous season conspicuously marked the lowest among the top-six finishing clubs. Curiously, creativity did not seem to be the stumbling block, as they ranked second in expected goals (xG) from open play, with only Manchester City (59) surpassing them with 56.6 xG. The crux of the issue lay in their ability to convert opportunities, with United managing a mere 48 goals from those chances, in stark contrast to City’s 69.
This concern has extended into the pre-season matches as well. “Absolutely,” confirmed Ten Hag following their defeat to Real Madrid on July 27th, when asked about the necessity for more attacking reinforcements. He elaborated, “Two things: the pressing can be better from the start and scoring goals. I think we need more players capable of thriving in one-on-one situations. We had opportunities – Rashford, McTominay, and [Alejandro] Garnacho. These are moments where you need to score. While we created some highly promising chances, our efficiency in converting them needs improvement.”
Essentially, United require a player who can consistently capitalize on the chances that are crafted. The verdict on whether Højlund is the solution remains pending. It’s noteworthy that he has only completed a single full season in a top-tier league and his goal-scoring record isn’t particularly prolific. However, his attributes align well with United’s needs and the demands of the Premier League. Possessing athleticism, a commendable finishing ability, and strong technical skills, Højlund’s profile appears well-suited for Manchester United’s setup and the unique challenges of the Premier League.
It’s important to acknowledge that Hojlund is likely to undergo a period of adjustment and growth – it’s unrealistic to anticipate an inaugural season akin to Erling Haaland’s meteoric rise. Consequently, Rashford could still find himself occasionally positioned through the center, which might appear to counteract the purpose of securing Hojlund. However, this underscores the necessity for depth and versatile choices. Notably, Anthony Martial’s reliability in terms of fitness does not position him as a dependable first-choice striker.
In the grander scheme, the presence of an established and consistent center-forward should alleviate some of the goal-scoring burden on Rashford. Despite his commendable performance last season, skepticism remains about his ability to sustain such levels over an extended duration.
Ten Hag has issued a challenge for Rashford to consistently net 40 goals per season, yet the feasibility of achieving this benchmark warrants examination. Naturally, if Rashford can attain these heights while Hojlund contributes with upwards of 20 goals per season from the central position, Manchester United’s prospects would be highly promising.
Therefore, the potential for Hojlund’s arrival to exert a significant impact is evident, contingent upon him fulfilling the potential that Manchester United evidently believes he possesses. However, in terms of the immediate future, the prospect of the club moving forward from Martial is revitalizing for numerous supporters. The incoming striker will possess the entirety of his career ahead, in contrast to Martial, whose prime years are in the past. This shift marks a promising stride for Manchester United and instills a sense of anticipation among its fanbase.
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