The Premier League title winner for the 2023-24 season, the clubs qualifying for the Champions League, and the teams contending to avoid relegation are explored in our comprehensive Premier League 2023-24 season preview.
The Premier League season preview for 2023/24 presents an intriguing scenario, particularly considering the upheaval witnessed last season, where the dominance of the Big Six was shattered, leading to a reshuffling of the status quo throughout the league standings.
The question arises whether the league will return to its usual pattern, with the heavyweight teams reclaiming the top positions this season. Alternatively, could this mark the dawn of a new era, where smaller clubs continue to challenge the established order?
Read More: Premier League revenue increased by 12 percent to a whopping €5.5 billion in the 2021-22 season
Which team is likely to emerge as the winner of the Premier League in the 2023-24 season?
Manchester City
In the midst of several rivals facing difficulties, Manchester City remained consistently exceptional. As the new season approaches, Erling Haaland is gearing up after his break, Jack Grealish is well-rested, and Pep Guardiola is poised to emerge from his tactical planning once again, armed with yet another strategic blueprint.
After their remarkable Treble victory, Manchester City is now on the hunt for another historic achievement: a fourth consecutive English top-flight title, a feat that has eluded even your great-grandfather over the course of 130 years. The question looms: which team is prepared to thwart this formidable side and prevent them from becoming the first to accomplish this remarkable feat?
During the 2022-23 Premier League season, Manchester City maintained possession for 64.9% of their matches. This figure is slightly lower than their average possession of 66.8% over Pep Guardiola’s initial six seasons in Manchester. Despite the discussions surrounding Guardiola’s strategic adjustments to accommodate Erling Haaland’s abilities, the team still remained Europe’s most patient and possession-focused side.
A significant query arises: Could the departures of Mahrez and Gundogan have a more substantial impact than anticipated?
Over the past five Premier League seasons, Gundogan and Mahrez contributed an average of 16.0 goals and 9.6 assists from 82.2 chances created. While not the most prolific goal-scorers or primary playmakers, they played essential roles in fulfilling specific team needs and adeptly managing the tactical responsibilities assigned by Guardiola.
Heading into the 2023-24 season, Manchester City possesses a wealth of attacking and creative talents, including Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne, Jack Grealish, Phil Foden, Julian Alvarez, and Bernardo Silva (for now?). However, the loss of these two key figures, who acted as crucial cohesive elements, is notable. It remains to be seen how Guardiola and his team will adapt to compensate for this loss and how long it will take for them to successfully integrate new solutions.
Arsenal
Seldom in the past have we witnessed such audacity. Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal came remarkably close in the previous season, with his young and aspiring team nearly dethroning their mentor from the dugout. Arsenal’s substantial £170 million investment in players like Declan Rice and Kai Havertz demonstrates their intent to challenge once more.
Arsenal experienced their most successful Premier League season in 19 years during their previous campaign. Their impressive 84-point tally was just five points below Manchester City’s 89, and they managed to challenge the eventual champions until the very end. Mikel Arteta is likely hoping that with the added experience of being in a title race, the 2023-24 season could unfold differently.
However, winning the FA Community Shield against City over the weekend might not have been a favorable omen. Historically, only one out of the last 12 winners of this pre-season competition has gone on to clinch the league title at the conclusion of that campaign.
Throughout the entirety of the 2022-23 season, Arsenal’s starting XI demonstrated an impressive 87% consistency from one game to another, marking the highest level of stability in the league. This factor played a significant role in Arsenal’s transformation from a team that hadn’t secured a top-four finish since 2016 to a team that led the Premier League for the majority of the season. Mikel Arteta’s ability and determination to rely on a core group of key players greatly contributed to this achievement.
However, with the anticipation of a potential decline in luck regarding injuries and the addition of Champions League matches, Arsenal will likely need to expand their squad significantly for the upcoming season.
A central question emerges: How effective is Arsenal’s defense?
Prior to the World Cup, Arsenal’s defensive performance was comparable to that of Manchester City. Despite fielding essentially four attackers simultaneously (comprising the front three and Martin Odegaard), Arsenal conceded just 0.85 expected goals per 90 minutes. This defensive prowess was second only to City (0.81 xG per 90) in the league. Following the World Cup, this figure increased to 1.27 expected goals per 90 minutes.
The signing of Kai Havertz, a center-forward with indications of being transitioned into a midfielder, suggests that Arsenal is reinforcing their aggressive playing style that propelled them to second place. This strategic choice appears to prioritize building upon the identity that brought them success, rather than solely addressing the defensive challenges that emerged in the latter half of the previous season.
Liverpool
The other giants of English football are resurging. Jurgen Klopp has orchestrated a transformation at Liverpool.
In the final 10 games of the previous season, Liverpool underwent a tactical shift, utilizing fullback Trent Alexander-Arnold in a deep-lying midfielder role during possession. This change coincided with the team boasting the best pregame expected-goal differential in the league (plus-1.37). While injuries played a significant role in Liverpool’s challenges throughout the season, the team struggled to consistently perform up to the level of talent available.
Two contrasting perspectives emerge: On one hand, there’s the bearish viewpoint suggesting that despite the abundance of talent, Liverpool’s collective prowess doesn’t translate into a cohesive and functional soccer team. On the other hand, the bullish perspective posits that Klopp may have finally optimized the arrangement of talent toward the end of the previous season, and with strengthened midfield options and improved injury fortune, Liverpool could potentially regain its status as one of the world’s premier teams.
A pivotal question arises: Is a defensive midfielder truly indispensable?
While Liverpool’s stance on this matter might differ, global trends indicate that the defensive midfielder role holds significant importance on the field. In recent times, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Chelsea, and Paris Saint-Germain collectively invested close to €400 million in acquiring defensive midfielders, despite their limited or absent Champions League experience. Manchester City, led by the exceptional Rodri, who is considered the best in the world in this position, have benefitted from his presence as a consistent anchor in the team. Rodri was the sole player from the best team in the world to feature in over 80% of the minutes across all competitions last season.
Liverpool experienced the departure of Fabinho and Jordan Henderson, and the potential replacements include 19-year-old Romeo Lavia, who is viewed more as a long-term prospect, and Moises Caicedo, who reportedly rejected an offer of 110M from Liverpool to favor a move to Chelsea.
Liverpool’s primary issue in the previous season was conceding a substantial number of high-quality chances. While the arrivals of Mac Allister and Szoboszlai, the integration of Curtis Jones, and the return of a top-tier presser like Diogo Jota suggest a solution focused on revitalizing the pressing style to prevent opponents from approaching their goal, rather than primarily fortifying the defensive third.
Over the past six seasons, Jürgen Klopp’s team stands as the sole Premier League titleholder apart from Manchester City. However, their performance in the 2022-23 season fell short of expectations. Liverpool concluded the season in fifth position, failing to secure a spot in the UEFA Champions League. The upcoming 2023-24 season marks the first time since 2016-17 that they will be absent from the UCL.
In the previous season, Liverpool garnered 67 points, marking their lowest tally in the Premier League since the 2015-16 season. This figure was notably 22 points behind Manchester City’s championship-winning total of 89 points.
Manchester United
Erik ten Hag has instilled unity within Manchester United’s squad. Under the guidance of Erik ten Hag, Manchester United showed improvement in the previous season, achieving a commendable third-place finish in the Premier League and securing victory in the League Cup, marking their first trophy in six years. The United project led by Ten Hag is evidently an ongoing endeavor, signifying that there is still progress to be made and work to be done.
In the 2022-23 season, Manchester United encountered a situation where they had more high turnovers committed (33.2 per match, ninth most in the league) than they generated (31.4, eighth most). This led to a deficit of minus-1.8 in high turnovers, contrasting with the positive plus-13.1 margin that the other top six teams in England’s league averaged.
Manager Erik Ten Hag is likely relying on the inclusion of a possession-friendly goalkeeper like Onana and an additional year of tactical coaching to transform Manchester United into the high-intensity, high-possession team he envisions.
A significant question arises: Does Manchester United possess the missing piece in its forward line?
The team grappled with an inadequate goalkeeper situation and a void at center-forward. Anthony Martial and loanee Wout Weghorst combined for a mere six goals in 1,486 minutes, prompting Marcus Rashford to assume the center-forward role instead of his preferred left-wing position for a considerable part of the season. Remarkably, despite these challenges, Manchester United managed to secure a third-place finish, underscoring the potential within the club.
The signing of Onana should address one of the gaps, and the potential addition of Rasmus Hojlund, a 20-year-old Danish forward who netted 10 goals in all competitions for Atalanta last season, could contribute to filling the void up front. The question remains: Is Hojlund the solution Manchester United needs for its forward line? His impact on the team’s offensive dynamics and his ability to enhance their attacking prowess will determine whether he can effectively fill this crucial role.
Which Teams will Secure a Place in the Top Four of the Premier League Standings?
Considering the details outlined earlier, it’s unsurprising that these four clubs – Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United exert their dominance, particularly when we look at the primary contenders for the Premier League title and are expected to secure Champions League Qualifications.
Which Teams are at Risk of Relegation from the Premier League in the 2023-24 Season?
In their inaugural top-flight season since 1991-92, there are predictions that Luton might encounter such a challenging campaign that they could potentially rival Derby County’s record-lowest points tally of 11 from the 2007-08 Premier League season.
Luton Town
Luton Town’s total squad market value, according to Transfermarkt, stands at €61.2 million. This figure places them at a level not seen in the Premier League since Burnley in the 2014-15 season, where they finished 19th. Since then, the average market value of Premier League squads has more than doubled. Luton’s return to the top division after a 31-year absence, along with their historic Kenilworth Road grounds, is a welcomed addition; however, the challenge of avoiding relegation in a second season is notably daunting.
A significant question emerges: How can Luton Town manage to score 31 goals?
Recent history indicates that only one team over the last decade has scored fewer than 31 goals in a season and managed to stay in the Premier League. Huddersfield scored 28 goals in the 2017-18 season and narrowly avoided relegation, only to struggle and eventually be relegated the following season. As such, achieving the 31-goal mark seems to be a reasonable benchmark for survival.
Luton earned their promotion primarily by relying on a solid defense and timely goals. Their average of 1.24 goals per game would have ranked them 13th in the Premier League. Despite their success in defense, most of their summer additions have been focused on bolstering their defensive options.
The challenge they face is whether they can generate enough goals to secure survival. Striking a balance between a resilient defense and effective goal-scoring will be essential for Luton’s chances of remaining in the Premier League for a second season. The ability to create and convert scoring opportunities will likely play a decisive role in determining their fate as they look to compete against higher-level opposition.
Luton Town, on the other hand, joins the ranks as the 51st team to grace the Premier League stage. Their home matches will take place at the Kenilworth Road stadium, the smallest ever venue in the division with a capacity of 10,300. Can they transform it into a fervent cauldron, reminiscent of their play-off semi-final second-leg performance?
Luton can draw comfort from the fact that the Premier League is characterized by its unpredictability, where any team can triumph over another. Brentford managed to defeat Treble-winning City twice last season, West Ham secured a trophy despite finishing below all seven London clubs, and Chelsea’s significant £600 million investment yielded a mere 40 points.
Sheffield United
A noteworthy statistic indicates that, as a general guideline, the newly promoted team most likely to retain their Premier League status is typically the one with the strongest defensive record in the Championship. In the case of Sheffield United, they allowed 44.3 expected goals in the previous season, which was higher than both Burnley and Luton Town.
A significant question arises: How will they fill the void left by N’Diaye?
In the preceding season, the Senegal international forward played a pivotal role for the club, leading in both goals (14) and assists (11). While these numbers might slightly overstate his performance, he still topped the team in expected goals (xG) and ranked second in expected assists. Sheffield United has yet to secure a replacement through the transfer market, and although there are younger potential options within the squad who could absorb some of the lost playing time, maintaining the same level of efficiency in terms of performance is a challenging task.
Considering that Sheffield United wasn’t particularly strong defensively last season, the absence of significant attacking production adds an additional layer of complexity. Replacing such a substantial contribution in the attack could pose difficulties for the team’s overall balance, and addressing this gap effectively will likely play a crucial role in their performance as they navigate their return to the Premier League.
Sheffield United faces the challenge of elevating their no-frills consistency to a higher level. Sheffield United secured promotion from the Championship last season, are anticipated to face relegation.
Bournemouth
Bournemouth faced challenges with the worst expected goal (xG) differential in the league during the previous season, standing at minus-25.3. While some of this can be attributed to the volatile nature of their performances, including both a heavy loss to Liverpool and a victory against the same team, there’s limited indication that these patterns will persist into the future. While the overall data could suggest that they weren’t the worst team in the league, they did indeed rank as the worst team that managed to avoid relegation.
A critical question arises: Can significant changes be achieved in a single summer?
Given the aforementioned circumstances, the club’s new ownership group’s decision to part ways with manager Gary O’Neil makes sense. They recognized the element of luck in their performances last season and aimed for a fresh start by appointing Andoni Iraola, an emerging coach renowned for leading Rayo Vallecano to overachievement in La Liga with an innovative and attractive tactical approach. Additionally, Bournemouth has been actively investing in promising young players from various parts of Europe.
In contrast to past relegation battles that often involved relying on defensive-oriented British coaches and experienced Premier League veterans, Bournemouth has taken a different approach. Their focus on tactical innovation and the infusion of youthful talent is evident. While these changes are promising, the potential for sudden improvement might still face challenges in preserving their top-flight status. Despite the positive strides, Bournemouth’s ability to successfully adapt and elevate their performance level will play a significant role in determining their fate in the upcoming season.
Bournemouth, in their initial Premier League season following their return, managed to avoid relegation. Under the guidance of Gary O’Neil, they secured a 15th-place finish, five points clear of the relegation zone. However, this summer saw a change in leadership, with Andoni Iraola taking over after O’Neil’s departure.
Iraola, with a successful stint at Rayo Vallecano, achieved noteworthy accomplishments, including promotion to La Liga in 2020-21, followed by successive top-12 finishes in the Spanish top flight, surpassing expectations. Given our predictions, he will need to replicate such remarkable achievements once again.
Burnley
Burnley displayed a remarkable shift in playing style during the previous season in the English Championship, achieving a notable 64% possession rate, which was the highest in the league. This departure from their approach during their six-year tenure in the Premier League under Sean Dyche, where they never exceeded a possession rate of 43%, is under the guidance of a familiar figure: Vincent Kompany, the former Manchester City captain, who has been making strides in his early days as a manager.
A significant question emerges: Can Burnley’s attack-by-committee strategy prove effective in the Premier League, especially with reduced possession?
Burnley embraced a collective approach to their attack last season, with nine different players contributing between nine and 22 combined goals and assists. With the return of six of these players and the addition of at least four new attackers, Burnley’s attack exhibited a progressive and engaging style, a departure from their traditional by-any-means-necessary identity that characterized the successful Dyche era. However, it’s unlikely that they will replicate their 64% possession rate in the top division.
The challenge lies in whether Burnley’s depth-oriented and modern approach can continue to flourish when competing against significantly tougher opponents. Can they effectively implement heavy pressing and possession-based tactics without necessarily having a talent advantage? As they transition back to the Premier League, Burnley’s ability to adapt their style while maintaining a competitive edge will be a central factor in their performance. The delicate balance between their attacking philosophy and the demands of top-flight competition will significantly influence their success in the upcoming season.
Burnley is predicted to steer clear of relegation. Vincent Kompany’s team is set to embark on a challenging beginning, as they have a formidable opening fixture against his former club and the reigning champions, Manchester City, in their return to the Premier League.
Each of the three newly promoted teams showcases their own distinct battling spirit and brilliance. Burnley claimed the title in an impressive manner, displaying attractive football that has the potential to surprise many.
The Regulars of the Premier League
Chelsea
Chelsea endured a tumultuous 2022-23 season, but with the appointment of Mauricio Pochettino as their manager, there is a renewed sense of optimism. While Pochettino spent four full seasons at Tottenham Hotspur without clinching a single trophy (insert some lighthearted jest about Spurs’ lack of trophies here), the question now arises: Could he bring about a different outcome at Stamford Bridge? We think so and they can finish in Top 4.
Chelsea struggled last season, averaging just one goal per match. This marked their lowest average in the history of the Premier League and tied for their lowest average since the English first division in the 1923-24 season. Astonishingly, this dip in performance followed a hefty expenditure of over €600 million in transfer fees.
A significant question arises: How much can truly change in the span of a single offseason? Chelsea is emerging from its most lackluster season in 28 years, revealing a much lower performance level than anyone could have predicted. However, the club managed to offload several burdensome contracts during the summer and welcomed manager Mauricio Pochettino to initiate a change in atmosphere.
They also revamped their offensive strategy, centering it around the dynamic duo of Nkunku (who tallied an impressive 58 goals and 23 assists across all competitions over the last two seasons) and Jackson (who notched 13 goals and four assists in all competitions during last year’s breakthrough season). Unfortunately, the debut of Nkunku will have to be postponed until at least December due to a knee injury sustained in Chelsea’s final preseason friendly.
Brighton
In September of the previous year, Roberto De Zerbi took over from Graham Potter and made an immediate impact on Brighton. Their impressive performance in the 2022-23 season resulted in a sixth-place finish, earning them a spot in the UEFA Europa League for the current season. The question now emerges: Can their squad manage the demands of midweek European football alongside the rigorous Premier League schedule? The coming period will reveal the answer.
Following Roberto De Zerbi’s appointment by Brighton in mid-September of the previous year, they emerged as the league leaders in both shots attempted per 90 minutes (16.6) and opposition passes allowed per defensive action (9.89).
Remarkably, Brighton is estimated to have the second-lowest payroll in the Premier League. Overwhelming opponents with shots and an aggressive pressing style is typically attributed to the wealthiest clubs globally or those backed by energy-drink conglomerates. Nevertheless, for at least a season, De Zerbi’s Brighton has demonstrated that achieving success with a comparatively limited budget is possible by executing an enhanced version of what their wealthier competitors aim to do.
A pivotal question arises: How do they consistently manage to accomplish this feat? If De Zerbi is the driving force behind their accomplishments, it seems only a matter of time before a wealthier club lures him away. Alternatively, if Brighton’s exceptional ability to identify talent is the key, it prompts the question of whether such expertise can truly be consistently replicated. Over the previous two seasons, they saw the departure of players like Dan Burn, Yves Bissouma, Ben White, Marc Cucurella, and Leandro Trossard to Champions League clubs, yet their performance has continued to improve.
While Mac Allister has transferred to Liverpool, the challenge remains to retain Moises Caicedo for a bit longer. However, they have retained their core attacking talents and can also look forward to increased contributions from the promising young pair, Evan Ferguson and Julio Enciso, this season. Brighton continues to be considered among the favorites for success in the Europa League for at least another season, and securing a top-four finish is not an unattainable goal either.
Tottenham
Ange Postecoglou, who achieved Scottish Premiership titles during his tenure at Celtic, is set to guide Tottenham into the upcoming season. Our statistical analysis suggests that winning a league title for a third consecutive season might be unlikely, aiming for a top-four finish would be a promising beginning for his tenure at the club.
Over the past eight Premier League seasons, Harry Kane has played a pivotal role in scoring or assisting on 43% (231 of 541) of Tottenham’s goals. As Kane’s potential departure from North London looms, either through a significant transfer to Bayern in the near future or via a free transfer next summer, it is becoming increasingly likely that the Tottenham attack will undergo a complete overhaul.
A significant question emerges: How long will it take for Ange Postecoglou to instill a possession-based style of play?
Ange Postecoglou is renowned for crafting a dominant Celtic team centered around modern pressing and possession, achieving an impressive 72% possession rate in the Scottish Premiership last season. Now taking charge of a Tottenham side that has not surpassed 52% possession since the 2018-19 season, Postecoglou faces the challenge of instigating a possession-oriented approach.
The addition of Maddison, who has displayed notable on-ball capabilities with 28 goals and 21 assists in all competitions over the past two years, contributes to this objective. However, the question remains: Who else will Tottenham bring in to enhance their build-up play and facilitate a smoother possession-based game plan? Additionally, the pace at which they move to replace Kane, should he depart in the upcoming weeks, will significantly impact the team’s ability to adapt and transition effectively under Postecoglou’s guidance.
Newcastle
Newcastle experienced stability. The financially robust Magpies displayed an unwavering and captivating performance, exemplifying the best among the challengers who have shaken the established order.
In addition to Manchester City, Newcastle also shared the league’s top spot for the fewest goals conceded, having only allowed 33 goals. This figure is notably lower than what one might expect, considering the volume and quality of shots they permitted (39.6). Nonetheless, their expected goals conceded (xG) was still the second-best in the league. It’s important to recall that this team faced the real possibility of relegation midway through the prior season.
Their defensive achievements were established on the foundation of the league’s most dependable back five: goalkeeper Nick Pope, fullbacks Kieran Trippier and Dan Burn, and centerbacks Sven Botman and Fabian Schaar, who featured in 31 out of 38 Premier League matches.
A significant query arises: Are the players genuinely as exceptional as their performance suggests?
Newcastle’s fourth-place finish possibly understates the level of impressiveness this team exhibited in the previous season. Due to Arsenal’s late-season decline, Eddie Howe’s squad ultimately boasted the second-highest xG differential in the league. Achieving such a feat in the Premier League inherently designates a team as one of the finest worldwide. However, within this roster, how many of these players would secure a spot in the starting lineup of another elite Champions League club?
Beyond Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali, and probably Trippier, along with a potential mention of Botman, there aren’t many others who would readily fit the bill. Perhaps Alexander Isak could be considered, but his limited playing time prevented him from contributing significantly to Newcastle’s remarkable performance. Furthermore, their summer signings appear to have enhanced the team’s overall depth more than elevating the upper limit of talent.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa also exhibited astute strategies, securing European qualification through exceptional campaigns. This team are likely to believe it can build upon it’s success and make even greater strides.
The rise of Aston Villa under Unai Emery has been notable, as they accumulated 49 points in league play to secure the fifth-best position in the Premier League, coming tantalizingly close to a top-four finish by just two points. While there was an element of fortune in their performance – they averaged 2.0 points per game in matches tied or decided by one goal, the highest in the league – Villa also outperformed their expected goals (xG) averages both in attack and defense. Their improvement was evident, particularly after overcoming an early-February period of struggle, during which they only suffered two losses over the final three months of the season.
A central question emerges: Can increased financial investment drive Aston Villa even higher up the league hierarchy?
Brighton achieved a remarkable sixth-place finish in the previous season through impressive talent identification and well-timed player sales. In contrast, Aston Villa has parted ways with a star player’s rights (Jack Grealish) over the past eight years and appears to be pursuing a more traditional path to success: continuous acquisitions to strengthen their squad. The addition of Torres, who is a favorite of Emery, and the inclusion of Diaby, boasting an impressive record of 31 goals and 24 assists across all competitions over the past two seasons, contribute to an attack that is rich in options but perhaps lacks creative spark.
The central query revolves around whether Aston Villa’s upward trajectory can be sustained. Their approach, characterized by consistent additions to the squad, differs from Brighton’s strategy. The challenge for Villa lies in effectively utilizing their new signings, capitalizing on their collective potential, and maintaining the momentum they have gained. Whether they can continue their ascent in the Premier League standings remains a key point of intrigue.
West Ham
The resurgence is not limited to London, and it extends beyond West Ham, who clinched the Europa Conference League.
West Ham faced a situation in the previous season where their goal differential lagged behind their expected goal (xG) differential by a significant margin (minus-3.65), a discrepancy larger than any non-relegated team in the Premier League. This contrast highlights how poor finishing luck impacted their final league position, resulting in a 14th-place finish rather than a higher standing. Despite this, David Moyes established a foundational level of quality that mitigated the risk of relegation, even in an unfortunate season.
A major question emerges: Can West Ham maintain their stability without Declan Rice?
Setting aside specific performance details, over the last four seasons, Declan Rice consistently played an extraordinary 93% of the available minutes for West Ham, a remarkable amount of playing time for a non-goalkeeper or non-defender. The substantial fee received from Arsenal for Rice’s transfer provides West Ham with the resources to revitalize an aging squad and, with prudent spending, potentially enhance multiple positions on the team. However, as of the present, the club has yet to secure any new signings during this summer transfer window.
The pivotal aspect to consider is how West Ham will perform in Rice’s absence. With Rice on the field, the team’s level has been established; the real unknown lies in how they will fare without his consistent presence. The ability to adapt and perform without Rice could determine West Ham’s trajectory in the upcoming season and beyond.
Brentford
In the previous season, three teams in Europe’s Big Five leagues stood out with a non-penalty expected goals per shot figure of at least 0.13: Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain, and Brentford. Notably, according to estimates from the website FBRef, Barcelona’s wage bill was over seven times larger than that of Brentford, while PSG featured three individual players who earned more individually than Brentford’s entire team combined.
A significant question arises: Will the absence of Ivan Toney pose a significant challenge for Brentford?
Despite being potentially the most successful club in Europe in terms of efficiency, Brentford is now confronted with a substantial hurdle: the absence of their key player, Ivan Toney, who has been suspended by the English Football Association for violating over 100 of the FA’s gambling rules.
In the previous season, only Harry Kane and Erling Haaland had a higher share of their team’s non-penalty goals and expected goals (xG) than Toney did for Brentford. While the team remains proficient in set pieces, they have yet to replace Toney through the transfer market. As seen with Leicester City in the past season, teams outside the top seven in the league are vulnerable to experiencing a challenging run that could lead to the threat of relegation.
The weight of replacing Toney’s contributions looms large, and Brentford’s ability to mitigate this loss will play a critical role in their performance this season. The prospect of maintaining their efficiency and securing their position in the league is a notable concern given the potential impact of Toney’s absence.
Fulham
Fulham exceeded their expected goals (xG) totals in league play by a notable 8.0 goals, ranking fourth in the league in terms of overachievement. This feat is particularly impressive given that their overachievement surpassed that of teams with notable players like Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, or Bukayo Saka. While Aleksandar Mitrovic served as a strong attacking presence, his performance did not account for the overachievement, as he netted 14 goals from an xG of 14.9.
This situation prompts two possibilities: Either Fulham had a knack for creating particularly advantageous scoring opportunities, or they are at risk of a substantial regression to the mean in the upcoming 2023-24 season.
A central question arises: Where will the goals come from?
With Mitrovic’s potential departure and the uncertainty surrounding Willian’s status (who contributed five goals and five assists from 51 chances), Fulham faces a challenge in identifying reliable sources of goals. The club brought in Jimenez as a potential interim solution, but his recent track record includes scoring nine goals from shots with an xG of 12.2 over the past two years. Fulham managed to counterbalance their defensive shortcomings last season with timely goals.
However, given their defense’s struggles (13th in shots allowed per possession, 18th in xG allowed per shot), the potential inability to convert chances could significantly impact their prospects in the upcoming season. The balance between converting opportunities and maintaining a solid defense will likely play a crucial role in Fulham’s performance trajectory.
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace finished their season impressively under the guidance of Roy Hodgson.
Since Roy Hodgson’s appointment on March 21, Crystal Palace displayed an impressive defensive performance by conceding only 84 shots for the remainder of the season. This statistic made them stand out as the team allowing the fewest shots, with Manchester City coming in second with 92 shots allowed, and no other team falling below the 100-shot mark.
A significant question emerges: Can Crystal Palace boost their goal-scoring output?
While preventing shots is commendable, the ability to generate scoring opportunities is equally crucial. Among players who played at least half of their team’s minutes last season, Crystal Palace lacked any representatives in the top 50 for non-penalty expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes. The most prolific shot-taker, Eberechi Eze, managed an xG rate of 0.22 per 90 minutes, placing him 52nd on the list and roughly on par with 33-year-old Diego Costa.
Although Eze contributes significantly in various aspects such as chance creation, ball carrying, and off-ball movement, it seems unsustainable for Crystal Palace to solely rely on him as their primary goal-scorer. Despite this, the club has yet to make any noteworthy signings during the summer transfer window that would likely address this concern. The absence of substantial offensive reinforcements raises questions about Crystal Palace’s capacity to increase their goal-scoring efficiency. The prospect of continuing to rely on Eze for a leading goal-scoring role might prove challenging over the long term.
Wolves
Furthermore, there are those anticipating a more forceful impact in the 2023/24 season. Wolves, guided by high-intensity coach from the Basque Country, will have the advantage of complete pre-season preparations and unexpected strategies for the established powerhouses.
The managerial change at Wolverhampton Wanderers, with Julen Lopetegui replaced by Gary O’Neil, comes after a period under Lopetegui where the team produced the worst expected goal (xG) differential (minus-20.34) in the Premier League. This transition raises a significant question: What is the club’s overarching strategy?
Wolves, with its strong ties to Portuguese superagent Jorge Mendes, has long prompted speculation about its intentions. Is the club primarily focused on maximizing its on-field performance, or does it serve as a platform for certain players associated with specific agents?
In their initial years back in the Premier League, the question about their intentions appeared somewhat secondary as the team demonstrated impressive form, positioning itself as a potential contender for a top-four finish. The midfield partnership of Joao Moutinho and Ruben Neves stood out, and the attacking trio of Raul Jimenez, Diogo Jota, and Adama Traore proved to be dynamic, entertaining, and challenging for opponents to handle in open space.
However, the current landscape has seen changes. Moutinho is now 36 years old, Neves has moved to the Saudi league, Jimenez now plays for Fulham, Jota departed for Liverpool, and Adama Traore has faced challenges in fully realizing his potential. The club has struggled to effectively replace the key players who defined their successful period from 2018 to 2020.
As Wolves face the upcoming season, the absence of players who were instrumental to their previous success poses a significant challenge. The uncertainty surrounding the team’s strategy and its ability to rebuild and compete at a high level raises questions about their prospects for the upcoming campaign. It remains to be seen how Wolves navigate this phase and whether they can regain their competitive edge in the Premier League.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest has also demonstrated significant financial ambition, aiming to solidify their presence at this level.
During the previous season, Nottingham Forest made a substantial signing of 26 new players, marking their return to the Premier League after an absence since the 1998-99 season. Despite this influx of new talent, their performance seemed reminiscent of a team still acquainting themselves with one another, eventually securing 11 points from their final six matches to avoid immediate relegation.
A pivotal question arises: Will team chemistry finally come into play?
While Forest may continue to invest in their squad this season, they appear to be banking on the extensive signings from the previous year to yield more significant results. The contributions of Elanga and a fit Taiwo Awoniyi are anticipated to invigorate an attack that ranked 15th in scoring. Notably, Forest displayed notable improvement when Awoniyi played over 70 minutes, achieving an average of 2.0 points and 1.8 goals per game, compared to 0.7 points and 0.8 goals when he was absent. However, these impactful performances were observed only in a limited number of matches (nine times).
Additionally, after cycling through various center-backs and fullbacks, Forest aims to establish a clear defensive hierarchy under the leadership of Steve Cooper. Addressing this aspect could prove essential in bolstering a defense that ranked 17th in goals allowed.
As Forest seeks to build upon last season’s player acquisitions, their prospects hinge on the synchronization of their team dynamics and the ability to strike a balance between attack and defense. How effectively they can harness the potential of their new signings and establish a cohesive unit will likely play a vital role in determining their success in the upcoming season.
Everton
Everton’s league point total has experienced regression in four of the past six seasons, with a decline of 23 points over the last two seasons. Despite a storied history and a longstanding presence in the top flight, the Toffees have found themselves in a precarious position, finishing just a few points above the relegation zone in recent campaigns.
A significant question arises: How can a team navigate its way out of a downturn?
Everton’s situation is reminiscent of that of Hamburg in German football—a once-potent force in the 1980s that has encountered challenges in recent years, attempting to avoid relegation with each passing season. The approach adopted by Everton appears to be centered around the hiring of Sean Dyche and relying on his ability to conjure some managerial magic. This strategy yielded results to some extent last season. While Everton’s performance under Dyche’s leadership wasn’t particularly outstanding (ranking 14th in points per game, goal differential, and expected goal differential), it proved sufficient to maintain their Premier League status.
However, financial constraints and ownership issues have hindered substantial investment in new players, and even previous significant spending endeavors haven’t yielded substantial improvements. The key question remains: Can Dyche’s guidance provide the team with the necessary stability and time to find their footing once again? As Everton looks to navigate these challenges, Dyche’s role in steering the team away from relegation and toward a more favorable trajectory will be pivotal.
Not to be overlooked, Everton could present an entirely different challenge after a transfer window under the leadership of Sean Dyche. The competition appears to be as fierce as ever before.
The future remains unwritten, and the level of unpredictability has never been more pronounced. Who can predict where we’ll find ourselves in another year’s time?
