Just 24 days ago, Manchester City appeared destined to challenge Arsenal for the Premier League title. After a six-game winning streak, the gap had narrowed to two points, and Guardiola’s team looked poised for another characteristic championship run. However, the landscape appeared dramatically darker after a run of three draws and a Manchester derby defeat. Recent developments have shown potential signs of recovery, though, with Manchester City breaking their four-game Premier League winless streak on January 24 with a convincing 2-0 victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers at the Etihad Stadium.
Omar Marmoush and Antoine Semenyo scored early goals to secure the win, narrowing the gap to Arsenal down to four points. The victory came after Guardiola made the significant decision to rest Erling Haaland, who remained on the bench before being introduced as a substitute in the 74th minute. This bold tactical choice proved successful and has reignited hopes that City can still rescue their season despite the earlier Champions League defeat to Bodø/Glimt.
The Defensive Disaster
Manchester City’s injury crisis in defence has become the defining factor in their recent collapse. With Rúben Dias, John Stones, and Josko Gvardiol all sidelined with significant injuries, the club has been forced to rely on inexperienced alternatives. Max Alleyne, a 20-year-old who was only recently recalled from a loan at Watford, has become a regular starter. Alongside him is Abdukodir Khusanov, just 21 years old and still recovering from an ankle injury sustained in December that kept him out for two months.
This defensive partnership represents City’s second-most-used centre-back combination this season, and their performances have been unconvincing during the recent poor run. The sudden emergence of an extreme injury crisis at the back coincided directly with City’s form deterioration. While City have the financial resources to address this immediately, as evidenced by their signing of Marc Guéhi from Crystal Palace, the disruption to the team’s defensive structure has been palpable.
Rodri’s Continued Struggles
The impact of Rodri’s ACL rupture in September 2024 cannot be overstated. At the time of his injury, the Spanish midfielder was arguably City’s most important player, and his absence throughout the 2024-25 season contributed significantly to City’s first trophyless campaign since Guardiola’s arrival in 2016-17. The expectation was that Rodri would spend the summer regaining strength and fitness, returning to his best for the new season.
That expectation has proven wildly optimistic. Rodri has struggled with a series of hamstring and knee issues throughout 2025-26, failing to regain the consistency that once made him indispensable. The statistics tell a damning story: City’s record is significantly worse when Rodri plays than when he is absent. They have won just 45.5% of matches he has started in all competitions, compared to 74.1% when he has not featured. Pre-injury, City rarely lost when Rodri was on the pitch; now the opposite is true.
It would be unfair to blame Rodri entirely for City’s struggles, particularly given the seriousness of his injury and the tough fixtures he has been asked to play in while regaining fitness. However, there is no escaping the reality that he has not returned to his previous levels of performance.
| Metric | With Rodri | Without Rodri |
|---|---|---|
| Win Rate | 45.5% | 74.1% |
| Matches Started | 11 | 27 |
| Total Wins | 5 | 20 |
| Appearances | All competitions | All competitions |
Erling Haaland’s Unprecedented Goal Drought
Erling Haaland’s form has been equally concerning. The prolific striker has now gone eight consecutive appearances without a non-penalty goal in all competitions, his longest drought while playing for City or Dortmund. This extended barren run extends across all formats, including his failure to score even in City’s 10-1 FA Cup demolition of Exeter, where he played 45 minutes.
Before this recent slump, Haaland had been responsible for 42.5% of City’s non-penalty expected goals in Premier League matches, by far the highest proportion in the division. Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins was his closest challenger with just 31.2%, highlighting how heavily reliant City had become on their talismanic striker.
Over his last eight matches, Haaland has averaged just 0.31 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, a dramatic decline from his 0.94 per 90 average across his first 27 games of the season. Most alarmingly, he has managed only one shot from inside the six-yard box during this period, suggesting the problem extends beyond his finishing ability.
| Period | Non-Penalty xG per 90 | Shots from 6-yard box | Appearances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Christmas (27 games) | 0.94 | Frequent | 27 |
| Post-Christmas (8 games) | 0.31 | 1 | 8 |
| Overall Season | 0.67 | Mixed | 35 |
The Collapsing Attack
The problems with City’s attacking play extend beyond Haaland’s struggles. Phil Foden, after enjoying a productive purple patch in November and December, has failed to score or assist in his last nine appearances across all competitions. Jeremy Doku has managed just one goal or assist in his last 11 matches, excluding City’s FA Cup demolition of Exeter. Omar Marmoush had fallen completely out of favour before departing for the AFCON tournament. Tissouma Reijnders is receiving diminishing game time compared to earlier in the season, and Savinho has been of limited use.
The attacking players City have identified as their main goal threats paint a concerning picture. Beyond Haaland, Foden, and Reijnders, defenders Josko Gvardiol and Nico O’Reilly have become their biggest and most consistent goal-scoring outlets. This distribution of attacking responsibility cannot be sustainable at a club of City’s ambitions and quality.
Recent recruit Antoine Semenyo may provide a solution to City’s goalscoring problems, but he has only recently joined the club and cannot be expected to single-handedly rescue their season immediately.
| Player | Goals in Last 9-11 Games | Primary Position |
|---|---|---|
| Phil Foden | 0 | Forward/Midfielder |
| Jeremy Doku | 1 | Winger |
| Omar Marmoush | 0 | Forward |
| Erling Haaland | 0 (non-penalty) | Striker |
| Josko Gvardiol | Multiple | Defender |
Champions League Complications
The 3-1 defeat to Bodø/Glimt in the Champions League represented perhaps the most damaging result of City’s collapse. While City fielded their youngest-ever starting XI in European competition, the players themselves acknowledged the performance was unacceptable, leading to the decision to refund travelling supporters for their expenses. This loss had left City needing other results to go their way on the final matchday of the league phase to secure a top-eight finish and automatic qualification for the knockout stages.
The prospect of having to negotiate a two-legged play-off round comes at a critical time for the club. However, the victory over Wolves has provided Guardiola with valuable breathing room. City can now approach their next Champions League match against Galatasaray with renewed confidence, having demonstrated improved form in the Premier League.
Can City Still Save Their Season?
Several critical questions now hang over Manchester City’s campaign. Has Guardiola run out of steam approaching a decade at the club? Will Rodri ever fully recover from his ACL injury? Can Haaland rediscover his goalscoring touch? Will City’s return of their senior defenders resolve their defensive vulnerabilities?
The most encouraging development is that City have demonstrated they can still win decisively when required. The 2-0 victory over Wolves, with first-half goals from Marmoush and Semenyo, showed that alternative attacking options can deliver when Haaland is rested. Guardiola’s decision to manage Haaland’s minutes and fatigue suggests the manager is thinking strategically about the remainder of the season. With Semenyo’s integration proving successful (he has now scored three goals in four appearances since his £62.5million move from Bournemouth), City have a renewed attacking threat beyond their struggling star striker.
The most optimistic scenario is that City’s recent problems were a temporary convergence of injuries and poor form simultaneously, with all issues capable of resolution relatively quickly. The Wolves victory suggests this may indeed be the case. If key players return from injury and City can build momentum with consecutive wins, Arsenal will inevitably start looking nervously over their shoulders at the city juggernaut.
However, the season remains far from saved. City’s performances prior to the Wolves match had given potential rivals very little to fear. The coming weeks are absolutely crucial, particularly with the Champions League match against Galatasaray looming and further Premier League fixtures against Arsenal and other title contenders remaining. If City can continue winning and Haaland rediscovers his touch, they may yet mount a serious title challenge. Conversely, if they return to their recent pattern of draws and defeats, the season may already be beyond saving.
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