DRAM prices are expected to fall considerably between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of following year, according to industry insiders. According to experts, the cost adjustment will be between 13 and 18 percent.
Trendforce predicted three months ago that the worldwide cost of DRAM will fall due to higher inflation affecting the consumer sector. However, the organisation claimed that we should expect a 13-18% cost reduction and an additional three to eight percent cost reduction after that. It is unclear whether this holds true, but with DDR5 becoming the standard, consumer DRAM will continue to be in great demand.
Not only should we anticipate a decrease in DRAM memory costs, but also in memory shipments.
Due to macroeconomic factors and supply chain constraints, we have seen a broadening of customer inventory adjustments. As a result, our expectations for CY22 industry bit demand growth for DRAM and NAND have declined since our June 30, 2022 earnings call, and we expect a challenging market environment in Q4 FY2022 and Q1 FY2023. Q4 FY2022 revenue may come at or below the low end of the revenue guidance range provided in our June 30 earnings call.
In Q1 FY2023, bit shipments are expected to decline sequentially, and we expect significant sequential declines in revenue and margins. […] To address the near-term environment, today we are announcing new FY2023 wafer fab equipment (WFE) Capex reductions adding to the WFE Capex reductions discussed in our June 30 earnings call. We now expect FY 2023 total Capex to be down meaningfully versus FY2022. — from the Micron filing with the SEC.
Server memory has been hit the hardest, falling by about 18%, despite the fact that server DRAM has been in higher demand over the previous year, surpassing DRAM memory used in mobile technologies such as tablets, notebooks, and smartphones. The expected year for DRAM growth is 2026, when analysts predict that demand for server memory will reach 24 percent.
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