Analyzing Julen Lopetegui’s Potential Move to West Ham: Can His Tactical Prowess Match the Fans’ Desire for Excitement?

It is anticipated that Julen Lopetegui will succeed David Moyes at West Ham, yet numerous fans doubt his ability to deliver the attacking style of football they desire. Lopetegui, who departed from Wolves last August, has been patiently awaiting a new opportunity, though he seems to lack widespread support among fans at any potential destination.

Following a significant outcry from AC Milan supporters, who vehemently opposed the idea of the 57-year-old taking over from Stefano Pioli and even launched a petition garnering over 10,000 signatures in less than two days, negotiations between the club and Lopetegui fell through.

This turn of events led West Ham to enter the picture. On May 6th, it was officially announced that David Moyes would be stepping down as manager at the end of the season. Rumors about Moyes’s departure had been circulating for months, and in the days leading up to the confirmation, speculation about Lopetegui being his potential successor was widespread.

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Debating Lopetegui: Assessing West Ham’s Coaching Choice Amidst Fan Discord and Moyes’ Legacy

Once again, Julen Lopetegui doesn’t seem to be a widely embraced choice. Another petition, albeit less influential, has been launched by West Ham fans, who have adopted the “Nopetegui” slogan coined by AC Milan supporters.

Criticism has been directed at West Ham for their handling of David Moyes, which may account for some of the opposition to Lopetegui. Additionally, there’s likely interest in the possibility of hiring Rúben Amorim, the highly regarded young coach of Sporting CP, especially after recent talks with the club.

Despite the skepticism surrounding Lopetegui’s suitability, it appears he’s set to take the reins. However, West Ham supporters should find reasons to be hopeful about his potential contributions to the club.

It’s important to recognize Moyes’ accomplishments at West Ham. Since taking charge in December 2019, he transformed the club from relegation candidates to achieving two top-seven finishes, reaching the semi-finals of the Europa League and winning the Europa Conference League. Moyes is also on track to depart with the highest Premier League win percentage (37.9%) of any permanent Hammers manager.

Frustration with the style of football and a perceived lack of excitement have been ongoing issues, as acknowledged by Moyes himself in February. He stated, “Maybe [the fans] have had managers who excite them more, but the one who is sitting here wins more. Maybe they want something different, but they’d honestly have to say it’s been as good a time as they’ve had at the club regarding winning a trophy, their league positions.”

Moyes has never been renowned for his entertaining style of play, and that’s acceptable. However, in an era where even Championship-promoted clubs are capable of dominating possession and playing attractive football, it’s understandable why supporters might crave something new. Certain segments of the fanbase have expressed their discontentment vocally, with ‘Moyes Out’ banners appearing and chants of ‘boring, boring West Ham’ echoing through the stands. As illustrated in the graphic below, their concerns can’t be dismissed as trivial.

Unpacking Julen Lopetegui’s Managerial Style: Insights from Wolves to Sevilla

Lopetegui may not be entirely unfamiliar to Premier League followers, having spent a stint at Wolves last season. However, his methods might not be widely known to West Ham supporters due to his brief tenure in the Midlands, which was cut short by disagreements with the board.

Upon joining Wolves in November 2022, Lopetegui inherited a team at the bottom of the Premier League. Despite this, he successfully guided them to safety, finishing one place above West Ham in 13th position. While this achievement speaks to his coaching prowess and ability to provide clear direction, it’s important to recognize the limitations of drawing conclusions from such an extreme circumstance and limited timeframe.

For deeper insights into Lopetegui’s managerial style and preferred player profiles, we can look to his time at Sevilla, where he spent over three years—the longest tenure of his career. During his tenure, Lopetegui emphasized a nuanced approach over rigid adherence to a single tactical idea, indicating a willingness to adapt. Despite this, his Sevilla side exhibited strong possession-based football, consistently recording over 58% possession in each of his full three seasons in charge— a feat matched only by Barcelona and Real Madrid during the same period. This shift marked a departure from Sevilla’s traditional wing play and counter-attacking style, which had been their hallmark since the turn of the century.

Furthermore, Sevilla consistently ranked among the top three teams in La Liga for the number of open-play passing sequences involving at least 10 passes, demonstrating their ability to control the game and create scoring opportunities.

A crucial component of Sevilla’s increased emphasis on possession was the central trio comprising Jules Koundé, Diego Carlos, and Fernando. Together, they possessed an ideal blend of physicality, technical ability, and precise distribution, forming a reliable foundation from which attacks could be launched. Koundé often pushed forward towards the right flank, covering the spaces left by right-back Jesús Navas and frequently joining the attack. Fernando provided cover for Koundé while also dropping back to help form a back three when in possession.

However, this trio, along with goalkeeper Yassine Bounou, played a pivotal role in what defined Lopetegui’s Sevilla: their defensive solidity.

From the beginning of the 2019-20 season until the end of the 2021-22 season, Sevilla kept an impressive 73 clean sheets in 160 games across all competitions. This translated to shutting out their opponents in 45.6% of their matches during that period, a statistic second only to Manchester City (46.1%) among teams from the top five European leagues.

In domestic competitions, only Sevilla and Real Madrid managed to accumulate at least 17 clean sheets in each of the three seasons under consideration. Additionally, Sevilla was the only La Liga club to consistently keep their expected goals against (xGA) below 37.5 every season. This equated to an average of 0.96 xGA per game during Lopetegui’s three full seasons in charge, a figure bettered only by Atlético Madrid (0.92). These statistics serve as clear evidence of Sevilla’s ability to consistently limit their opponents’ clear-cut scoring opportunities.

While many clubs today prioritize a high pressing strategy when out of possession, Lopetegui’s Sevilla adopted a different approach. They tended to sit deeper defensively, resulting in rankings of 10th, 13th, and 18th for high turnovers (instances of regaining possession within 40 meters of the opponents’ goal) in the respective full seasons under Lopetegui. However, their lack of emphasis on pressing in the attacking third didn’t indicate a lack of defensive effort; rather, they displayed a tireless work ethic, albeit closer to their own goal.

Throughout the outlined three seasons, Sevilla allowed their opponents an average of just 10.3 passes before engaging in a defensive action (PPDA), a figure surpassed by only four other clubs during that period.

This defensive solidity had a notable impact on their goal-scoring output. While it’s worth noting that La Liga historically has a lower goal-scoring average compared to other top leagues, with a seasonal average of 2.62 goals per game over the past decade, Sevilla’s offensive production was still affected. During Lopetegui’s three full seasons in charge, their highest non-penalty goals per game figure was 1.34 in the 2021-22 season. In comparison, West Ham under Moyes in the 2023-24 (1.44), 2021-22 (1.47), and 2020-21 (1.61) Premier League seasons have averaged more goals per game.

Evaluating Lopetegui’s Potential Impact: Balancing Effectiveness with Entertainment

Indeed, Sevilla’s approach under Lopetegui prioritized control and defensive solidity over prolific goal-scoring. Their attacking strategy often involved creating space for full-backs to advance down the flanks while central midfielders and inverted wingers maintained control in the middle.

A key aspect of their offensive tactics was crossing, with Sevilla consistently recording 576 or more open-play crosses in each season under Lopetegui. Crossing was particularly emphasized to cater to the type of striker preferred by Lopetegui—tall and proficient in the air. Players like Luuk de Jong, Youssef En-Nesyri, and Rafa Mir, all signed by Monchi for Lopetegui, exemplified these characteristics. While not all signings were equally successful, their arrivals highlighted the coach’s preference for aerially dominant forwards.

Despite variations in personnel, Sevilla consistently reached double figures for headed goals in the league each season under Lopetegui, a testament to their commitment to this aspect of their attacking game.

While Lopetegui’s Sevilla may not have been regarded as thrilling to watch, they were undeniably effective and disciplined, excelling in ball retention, defensive organization, and match-winning performances.

Should Lopetegui implement a similar style at West Ham, it’s unlikely to satisfy supporters’ desire for exhilarating football. However, there’s a compelling argument that he could significantly enhance the team’s overall quality and effectiveness on the pitch.

Replicating the exact setup from Lopetegui’s time at Sevilla may not be feasible, as he himself acknowledged the importance of adapting tactics to suit the squad. While it’s challenging to pinpoint the precise characteristics of Lopetegui’s West Ham, it’s likely they will prioritize possession control and look to be progressive in their approach.

Whether they will be considered entertaining is subjective, but they will likely aim to dominate possession and play proactive football.

It’s worth noting that Lopetegui achieved significant success at Sevilla despite substantial squad changes. In his first season, the squad underwent significant upheaval with numerous arrivals and departures, yet he managed to mold them into a cohesive unit that won the Europa League and secured a fourth-place finish in La Liga.

His tenure saw Sevilla achieve historic feats, including consecutive top-four finishes and qualification for the Champions League for three seasons running, unprecedented in the club’s history since the Spanish Civil War.

While success doesn’t always guarantee excitement, West Ham fans can trust in Lopetegui’s ability as a progressive coach with a track record of quickly implementing his ideas and improving teams. Sacrificing the pursuit of thrilling football for a coach of his caliber could prove to be a wise decision.