Atlético Madrid will rely on their impressive home form as they aim to overturn a narrow first-leg deficit against Real Madrid in their Champions League last-16 showdown on Wednesday. Get ready for the clash at the Metropolitano with our Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction and preview.
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Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid: Preview
Atlético Madrid will count on their formidable home record as they aim to overturn a narrow first-leg deficit against rivals Real Madrid in their Champions League last-16 showdown at the Metropolitano on Wednesday.
Los Blancos secured a 2-1 victory in the first leg at the Santiago Bernabéu last week, but the tie remains tantalizingly balanced heading into the return fixture.
If Diego Simeone’s men are to mount a comeback, they will need to capitalize on their strong home record. Atlético have lost just one of their last seven home encounters against Real Madrid across all competitions (W3, D3).
Furthermore, Atléti boast an exceptional record in Champions League knockout matches on home soil. They have remained unbeaten in their last 18 such fixtures (W11, D7) since their last home defeat in a European knockout tie—a 3-2 loss to Ajax in March 1997, whether at the Vicente Calderón or the Metropolitano.
Simeone’s side also has a history of overturning deficits in the competition. Of the six Champions League ties in which they have lost the first leg, they have successfully fought back to advance on three occasions—all of which came after losing the opening leg away from home (2014-15 last 16 vs. Bayer Leverkusen, 2015-16 quarter-final vs. Barcelona, and 2023-24 last 16 vs. Inter).
However, overturning a first-leg deficit against Real Madrid is no easy feat. Los Blancos have advanced in 21 of the 22 Champions League ties where they won the opening leg, with the sole exception coming against Ajax in the 2018-19 last 16. Under Carlo Ancelotti, they have maintained a perfect record, progressing on all nine such occasions.
This match will also be a milestone for Ancelotti, as he becomes the first coach to take charge of 75 Champions League games with Real Madrid, and only the seventh manager to reach this landmark with a single club.
Offensively, Madrid have been in lethal form in this season’s competition, averaging 2.55 goals per game (28 in 11 matches), their highest since 2016-17 (2.77). They have already recorded 78 shots on target—surpassing their total from last season (74).
Rodrygo, who opened the scoring in the first leg, netted his 25th Champions League goal for Real Madrid, becoming the fourth-youngest player to reach that tally for a single club (24 years, 54 days). He trails only Lionel Messi (22 years, 286 days for Barcelona), Kylian Mbappé (22 years, 352 days for PSG), and Raúl (23 years, 252 days for Real Madrid).
Despite his heroics, Rodrygo is among Madrid’s injury concerns after sustaining a hand injury against Rayo Vallecano. Vinícius Júnior (toe) and Jude Bellingham (thigh) are also doubts, though reports suggest all three could be available. Meanwhile, Antonio Rüdiger’s participation remains uncertain due to illness.
For Atlético, Julián Álvarez—who found the net in the first leg—has been in red-hot form, contributing to at least one goal in each of his last five Champions League appearances for the club (six goals, one assist). Only two Argentine players have ever managed a streak of six or more consecutive goal involvements in the competition: Claudio López (six in 1999 for Valencia) and Lionel Messi (eight in 2011-12 and six in 2014 for Barcelona).
Defensively, Atléti are likely to remain without veteran César Azpilicueta, while captain Koke is still a doubt for this crucial derby. However, they have no new injury concerns from the weekend. That said, their preparation for this clash was far from ideal, as they squandered a one-goal lead to suffer a 2-1 defeat against Getafe.
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid: Head-to-head
Atlético have been formidable at home against Real Madrid in recent years, losing just once in their last seven encounters across all competitions (W3, D3). In cup competitions, their dominance is even more pronounced, remaining unbeaten in their last five home meetings with their rivals, winning four and drawing one.
Historically, Madrid enjoyed a dominant run of eight consecutive away wins against Atlético between January 2008 and February 2014. However, since then, their fortunes in this derby have shifted, managing only three victories in 17 away games across all competitions (L7, D7).
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid: Team News and Predicted Lineup
Atlético Madrid – Team News
Atlético Madrid’s preparations for the second leg have been far from ideal, with Clement Lenglet withdrawn just before kickoff against Getafe due to a knock and midfield mainstay Rodrigo De Paul forced off at halftime with an apparent injury.
Despite these setbacks, both players have been included in the squad for the crucial clash, with De Paul even handling pre-match media duties—an encouraging sign that he could feature.
Robin Le Normand stepped in for Lenglet at Getafe after the Frenchman’s late withdrawal, while Pablo Barrios replaced De Paul at the break. Barrios had initially been rested, but his introduction saw Marcos Llorente shift into midfield, with Nahuel Molina slotting in at right-back. If De Paul isn’t fully fit and Simeone opts against starting Conor Gallagher, Llorente could once again partner Barrios in midfield, with Molina retaining his place in defense.
Veteran César Azpilicueta returned to the bench over the weekend following a spell on the sidelines, though captain Koke remains unavailable. Ángel Correa, who received a red card against Getafe after his yellow card for a foul on Djené Dakonam was upgraded by VAR, is eligible for this European fixture despite now serving a domestic suspension. However, his reaction to the dismissal could lead to an extended ban in LaLiga.
Atlético lost their composure late on in that Getafe defeat, collapsing despite Alexander Sørloth’s penalty, as Mauro Arambarri netted a dramatic late double to snatch the win.
Atletico Madrid – Predicted Lineup (4-4-2)
- Goalkeper – Oblak
- Defenders – Llorente, Gimenez, Le Normand, Galan
- Midfielders – Simeone, Barrios, Lino, Simione
- Forwards – Griezmann, Alvarez
Real Madrid – Team News
Thibaut Courtois and Antonio Rüdiger returned to training ahead of Real Madrid’s crucial Champions League clash against Atlético Madrid later today.
The first-choice goalkeeper and key defender were both spotted in Monday’s session after missing Sunday’s 2-1 home victory over Rayo Vallecano, which lifted Madrid to second place in LaLiga—overtaking Atlético, who suffered a dramatic late collapse at Getafe following Ángel Correa’s red card. Atlético missed the chance to go top, as leaders Barcelona’s game against Osasuna was postponed due to the passing of first-team doctor Carles Minarro Garcia.
Rüdiger had been sidelined with flu, while Courtois was dealing with what Carlo Ancelotti described as a “small problem.” However, the Madrid boss remained optimistic that both would be fit for the second leg at the Metropolitano. He also confirmed that Jude Bellingham’s late absence against Vallecano was not due to injury, meaning he is set to return to the lineup after missing the first leg at the Santiago Bernabéu through suspension.
There is a minor concern over Kylian Mbappé, who underwent an individual training session on Tuesday. If he isn’t fully fit, Brahim Díaz—who netted the stylish winner in the first leg—could drop to the bench, though Eduardo Camavinga is also an option to be left out as Ancelotti looks to strike the right tactical balance. Deploying both Brahim and Bellingham together would create an attack-heavy setup in what is expected to be a closely contested, high-stakes encounter.
Otherwise, Madrid’s lineup is likely to remain largely unchanged from the first leg, with Raúl Asencio expected to partner Rüdiger in central defense, and Federico Valverde continuing at right-back after impressing on his return from injury. Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, Dani Ceballos, and Jesús Vallejo remain unavailable.
At the weekend, Ancelotti rotated his squad, naming Valverde, Camavinga, Brahim, and Ferland Mendy on the bench while Lucas Vázquez, David Alaba, Fran García, and Luka Modrić started, with Andriy Lunin filling in for Courtois between the posts.
Real Madrid – Predicted Lineup (4-4-2)
- Goalkeper – Courtois
- Defenders – Valverde, Rudiger, Asencio, Mendy
- Midfielders – Tchouameni, Camavinga, Bellingham,Rodrygo
- Forwards – Vinicius Jr., Mbappe
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid: Prediction
Given the historical context and current form, this clash between Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid is poised to be a tense and closely contested affair.
Atlético have a formidable home record in Champions League knockout matches, having gone unbeaten in their last 18 such games (W11, D7) since 1997. Their resilience in overturning first-leg deficits in Europe, as seen against Inter Milan last season, will also give them confidence. Furthermore, Diego Simeone’s men have lost just once in their last seven home encounters against Real Madrid across all competitions (W3, D3).
However, Real Madrid’s ability to navigate these high-pressure ties is unrivaled. They have progressed in 21 of 22 Champions League knockout ties after winning the first leg, their only failure coming against Ajax in 2019. Carlo Ancelotti’s side has been prolific this season, averaging 2.55 goals per game in the competition, and their clinical attack—led by Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham, and Vinícius Júnior (if fit)—will be a major threat.
While Atlético will push hard to turn things around, Madrid’s superior experience and efficiency in knockout ties should see them edge through. Expect a fiercely competitive game with chances at both ends, but Los Blancos’ pedigree in such situations may prove decisive.
Prediction: Atlético Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid (Real Madrid advance 3-2 on aggregate).
When and Where to Watch Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Match? Broadcast and Streaming Details
The UEFA Champions League 2024-25 Round of 16 second leg between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid will take place at the Metropolitano Stadium in Madrid, Spain. The match is set for March 13 at 1:30 am IST. It will be broadcast live on the Sony Network and can be streamed online via Sony LIV.
FAQs
Can Atlético Madrid overturn their first-leg deficit against Real Madrid?
Atlético Madrid have a strong home record and have overturned first-leg deficits in the Champions League before, most recently against Inter Milan in 2023-24.
What is Real Madrid’s record when winning the first leg in the Champions League?
Real Madrid have progressed in 21 of 22 Champions League knockout ties after winning the first leg, with their only failure coming against Ajax in 2018-19.
Which key players are doubtful for the match?
Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappe is a doubt, while Atlético Madrid may miss César Azpilicueta and Koke.
How have both teams performed in recent Madrid derbies at Atlético’s home?
Atlético have lost just once in their last seven home games against Real Madrid in all competitions (W3, D3), while in cup competitions, they are unbeaten in five home ties (W4, D1).
Who are the top goal threats in the match?
ulián Álvarez has been involved in a goal in each of his last five Champions League games for Atlético, while Rodrygo has 25 Champions League goals for Real Madrid at just 24 years old.
