The crypto winter is already in its ninth week, and bitcoin is still shivering. From technical to turnover, market indicators for the largest cryptocurrency, which has lost a third of its value in just two months, are flashing red or amber. So, what’s next? Bitcoin’s short history isn’t much of a model for crypto winters, which we define as a month or more of sustained bearishness.
About the Crypto Crashes
Since 2017, there have been five, and three since 2021. Last year’s two crashes lasted 14 and 10 weeks, respectively, and saw bitcoin drop 45 to 47 percent of its value. If past trends are any indication, bitcoin’s recent dip – a 36 percent loss in eight weeks – has a long way to go.
Moreover, the macro backdrop is hardly encouraging for an asset class that is now widely regarded as volatile, unstable, and prone to inflation. Cryptocurrencies aren’t on anyone’s shopping list as concerns about increasing global rates and geopolitics push US markets closer to confirming a bear market. Even in the frozen wastelands, there are hints that the crypto king is planning a comeback.
Following the collapse of TerraUSD in early May, Bitcoin is drawing strength from the rest of the crypto market, with its relative stature providing some reassurance to investors fleeing ultra-risky altcoins like stablecoins.
Whilst the price of bitcoin has fallen, its supremacy, or the ratio of its market value to the rest of the cryptocurrency markets, has risen to a seven-month high of over 44 percent. According to CFTC data, bitcoin futures had their greatest net long position since the contract was created in 2018, showing that traders are boosting their strategy for a rise in the cryptocurrency’s price.
Condition of Bitcoin in the Market
Bitcoin has dropped half of its value since peaking at $69,000 on November 10th. It’s flirting with $30,000 this week, after hitting a 17-month low of $25,401 on May 12. Although it remains the most valuable digital asset by market capitalization, the total worth of all cryptocurrencies is at $1.3 trillion, less than half of the $3 trillion peaks reached in November.
Coinglass’s bitcoin Fear & Greed index of market sentiment is hovering around 13, with 0 indicating extreme fear and 100 indicating extreme greed. Ether, the second most valuable cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has been hovering around $2,000, down about 60% from its record of $4,868 on November 10.
The critical levels, according to Bilal Hafeez, CEO of research firm Macro Hive, are $2,300 and $2,500, and failure to hold above either mark in the short future would be a bearish indication.
As per the news and analysis site, The Block, the total spot market volume for all crypto at major exchanges decreased to $18.4 billion on Monday, less than half of the $48.2 billion witnessed on May 14, which was the highest volume for 2022. According to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, bitcoin’s current price of $33,600 puts 40% of investors in the red.
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