The 2023 Ballon d’Or is set to be presented on Monday, and Lionel Messi is widely anticipated to secure this prestigious individual award for an unprecedented eighth time.
Lionel Messi had a notable gap in his extensive collection of trophies. Some individuals, including passionate Cristiano Ronaldo supporters, contended that until the Barcelona legend claimed this final accolade, his claim to the title of the Greatest of All Time (GOAT) could be questioned.
In response, Messi exhibited his trademark excellence, achieving what he hadn’t in his four previous FIFA World Cup appearances – he emerged victorious. What’s more, he accomplished this feat in remarkable fashion, leading an Argentina team that, while possessing talent, was not the tournament’s strongest squad, all the way to triumph in Qatar.
In December, at Lusail Stadium, Messi finally raised the trophy that had eluded him for so long. His performances in Qatar mirrored those of the late, legendary Diego Maradona in 1986, when Maradona propelled an Argentina team into the annals of history in Mexico.
One year after being excluded from the shortlist for the 2022 Ballon d’Or, Messi is now the frontrunner to claim this year’s award, which will consider his performances in the 2022-23 season. If he wins, it would be his eighth Ballon d’Or, further extending his record.
Erling Haaland, the sensation from Manchester City, had an outstanding debut season in England, breaking the Premier League’s single-season goalscoring record with an incredible 52 goals, while helping Pep Guardiola’s team secure the Premier League, FA Cup, and UEFA Champions League treble.
Rodri played a crucial role in Manchester City’s success, including scoring the decisive goal in the Champions League final.
Kylian Mbappé continued to shine, contributing directly to 50 goals in all competitions for PSG.
Jude Bellingham excelled at Borussia Dortmund, earning a move to Real Madrid, where he quickly became a superstar.
However, despite these impressive performances, none of them should surpass Messi in the race for the Ballon d’Or this year. In the following explanation, we outline the reasons why Messi is the favorite to once again be named the world’s best player.
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Lionel Messi’s Fairytale Campaign at the 2022 World Cup
In a truly crowning moment, Messi demonstrated his brilliance at the 2022 World Cup by scoring seven goals and providing three assists in Argentina’s seven matches in Qatar. These 10 goal involvements accounted for two-thirds of Argentina’s total goals (15). He joined an elite group of players who have achieved at least 10 goal involvements in a single World Cup since assists were first tracked.
The other luminaries in this star-studded list include Eusebio (10, 1966), Pele (10, 1970), Maradona (10, 1986), Mbappé (10, 2022), and Gerd Muller (13, 1970). Just Fontaine (13 goals, 1958) and Sándor Kocsis (11 goals, 1954) also reached 10+ goal involvements prior to the tracking of assists, relying solely on their goal-scoring prowess.
What set Messi apart was his historic achievement as the first player in the history of the FIFA World Cup to score in the group stage, round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals, and the final. This remarkable feat was accomplished despite his previous World Cup knockout stage struggles, during which he played 756 minutes of knockout football and attempted 23 shots without finding the net.
Additionally, Messi is among a select group of five players, including Jairzinho, Just Fontaine, Salvatore Schillaci, and Davor Suker, who scored in six matches during a single edition of the World Cup.
At the age of 35, Messi led the 2022 World Cup in several statistical categories, including shots (32), shots on target (18), chances created from open play (17), fouls won (22), and overall expected goals (xG) at 6.63. It’s worth noting that he converted four penalties. His open play xG was 2.69, ranking third behind France’s Mbappé (3.62) and Olivier Giroud (3.49).
Messi also excelled in creating opportunities, as he was involved in more open-play sequences leading to a shot than any other player in the competition, with 53 sequences, four more than the second-placed Mbappé. He was on par with Antoine Griezmann for creating significant goal-scoring chances. Notably, among all players, Mbappé was the sole individual with more touches in the opposition area than Messi, registering 68 compared to Messi’s 45.
Lionel Messi achieved several historic milestones during the 2022 World Cup, solidifying his legacy on the world’s biggest stage.
First, he became the player with the most appearances in World Cup history, reaching an impressive 26 appearances, surpassing the previous record held by Germany’s Lothar Matthäus at 25.
In the 23rd minute of the final, Messi also overtook Paolo Maldini’s record for the most minutes played in World Cup tournament finals, accumulating an astonishing 2,216 minutes on the field.
Furthermore, his two goals in the final match brought his total World Cup goal tally to 13, placing him third on the all-time list. He now stands just behind Brazil’s Ronaldo with 15 goals and Germany’s Miroslav Klose with 16. Messi’s achievement in scoring at four different World Cups aligns him with a select group of players, including Klose, Pele, and Uwe Seeler, who have accomplished this rare feat. Notably, only Cristiano Ronaldo has managed to score in more World Cup finals, achieving the milestone in five different tournaments.
In addition to winning the main prize, Messi also received the Golden Ball for his performances. While Mbappé, arguably his main rival for this year’s Ballon d’Or, secured the tournament’s top scorer title and the Golden Boot, thanks to a hat-trick in the final, the day still belonged to Messi. Many consider his performance to be the best individual display at a World Cup.
In terms of all-time statistics, Messi now holds the World Cup records for chances created (75), chances created from open play (55), dribbles attempted (206), dribbles completed (125), shots (104), and shots on target (46). These records highlight his remarkable impact on the history of the tournament.
Indeed, it was an incredible tournament for the former Paris Saint-Germain player, and his performances alone make a strong case for him to receive the award.
However, it’s important to note that his excellence wasn’t limited to the World Cup last season…
Was Messi Underappreciated at PSG?
Leading up to the last year’s World Cup, Messi had been delivering outstanding performances for PSG.
Before the mid-season tournament, no player in the top five European leagues posed a greater threat than Messi, averaging 1.2 expected goal involvements per 90 minutes in non-penalty situations. In essence, he consistently found himself in scoring positions and generated high-value opportunities for his teammates.
In terms of assists, Messi led across the top five European leagues in all competitions, providing 14 assists, with 10 of those coming in Ligue 1. This accomplishment was particularly noteworthy as he had already matched his entire assist tally from the 2021-22 season, despite playing 1,290 fewer minutes. Furthermore, he had already exceeded his goal tally from the previous campaign, scoring 12 goals compared to the previous season’s 11. This performance left a strong impression that Messi was gearing up for one final pursuit of World Cup glory.
In the 18 matches Messi played for PSG leading up to the World Cup, his statistics were nothing short of remarkable. He averaged 83 touches per match, with 6.38 of those occurring in the opposition’s box. He boasted 1.44 goal involvements, 2.81 chances created, 0.98 big chances created, 4.25 shots, and 3.22 successful dribbles per 90 minutes. These numbers were truly exceptional, even though they saw a slight dip after the World Cup in his subsequent 22 matches for PSG in all competitions.
While Messi’s time at PSG saw the French side clinch Ligue 1 titles in both of his campaigns at the Parc des Princes, it fell short of the Champions League success that the club’s owners, QSI, had eagerly sought. His PSG journey also concluded on a somewhat sour note when he faced criticism for an unauthorized visit to Saudi Arabia, leading to protests from some sections of the PSG fan base demanding his departure.
It’s disappointing to see the world’s greatest player face such discontent, even though it was clear that the partnership with Kylian Mbappé and Neymar hadn’t fully clicked to inspire PSG to the coveted European success.
Contrary to the narrative of him failing at PSG, the statistics from last season tell a different story. In Europe’s top five leagues, only four players (Erling Haaland – 61, Mbappe – 50, Mohamed Salah – 46, and Vinicius Junior – 42) were involved in more goals than Messi last season (41). He scored 21 goals, none of which came from penalty kicks, and provided 20 assists, a figure surpassed only by Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne with 28 assists.
An interesting point to note is that while De Bruyne exceeded his expected assists (xA) of 19.24 by 8.76, Messi’s 20 assists were backed by an expected assists (xA) value of 18.7. This suggests that Messi’s assist total was not reliant on his teammates outperforming expectations when finishing, in contrast to De Bruyne, who benefited from the clinical finishing of Haaland on some of his more challenging chances.
Messi’s influence and performance in the 2022-23 Ligue 1 season were indeed remarkable. He created 88 chances from open play, ranking fourth in Europe’s top five leagues, behind Kevin De Bruyne (99), Vinicius (103), and Bruno Fernandes of Manchester United (146). When it came to big chances created, Messi was third with 34, trailing De Bruyne by 10 and Fernandes by 14. Real Madrid’s Vinicius (196) was the only player who surpassed Messi’s total completed dribbles, registering 126.
Furthermore, Messi’s performance in the 2022-23 Ligue 1 season positioned him among the best forwards in terms of possession and attacking over the past 15 seasons in Europe’s top five leagues. He ranked in the 100th percentile for both chances created and touches, emphasizing his enduring excellence. This outstanding performance indicates that any notion of Messi being past his prime is far from the truth.
From Paris to Miami: Messi’s MLS Odyssey and Ballon d’Or Aspirations
Following the complications arising from his trip to Saudi Arabia, the chances of Messi staying at PSG always appeared slim. Al Hilal, who eventually opted for Messi’s close friend Neymar, offered the Argentine an enticing contract to join them in Riyadh. With a return to Barcelona, his former club, out of the question due to their financial constraints, Messi’s heart was set on a different destination: South Florida.
Inter Miami had been linked with Messi for a considerable time, and in early June, just before he turned 36, the forward confirmed his move to MLS, crossing the Atlantic.
In a transfer that was arguably the biggest incoming move for Major League Soccer (MLS) since David Beckham’s arrival at LA Galaxy in 2003, Messi’s arrival sparked a frenzy of excitement and enthusiasm.
Fans in Miami had to be patient until mid-July for Messi’s debut, which took place as a substitute in the Leagues Cup against Liga MX side Cruz Azul.
It was a Hollywood-like debut: Messi delivered a remarkable stoppage-time free-kick to secure a 2-1 victory for Gerardo Martino’s team. Notably, it was the second time in his career that he had scored a direct free-kick winner in added time, with the first instance occurring in February for PSG against Lille.
Messi continued to make waves in his MLS journey, scoring two goals against Atlanta United. This achievement marked his 100th different club against which he had found the net in his illustrious career. Remarkably, both of these goals were scored with his right foot, a feat he hadn’t accomplished in a match since February 2015.
It’s important to note that the Ballon d’Or only takes into account performances up to the end of July. Therefore, Messi’s subsequent achievement of leading a Miami team that had gone winless in 11 MLS matches prior to their Leagues Cup victory won’t be considered, nor will his contributions in the US Open Cup final. Nonetheless, his impact on the club has been remarkable.
Injury did limit Messi’s playing time, and it ultimately dashed Miami’s hopes of sneaking into the MLS Cup playoffs or winning the US Open Cup in the final stages of the regular season. Despite this, he concluded the campaign with 11 goals and five assists in all competitions, achieved in just 14 appearances.
While Messi enjoys his final chapter in the United States, his extraordinary achievements from the previous season, which include his stellar performances in Qatar and the impressive numbers he produced during his time at PSG, should make a compelling case for him to secure his well-deserved eighth Ballon d’Or.
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