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What Does Arsenal or Manchester City Need To Do To Win The League? Premier League Title Race Scenarios

Manchester City’s victory against Tottenham on Wednesday positions them to clinch the Premier League title by defeating West Ham on Sunday.

Nevertheless, Arsenal stands a chance to seize the championship should Manchester City falter.

Heading into the last day of the season, Manchester City holds the fate of the Premier League title, yet Arsenal remains a formidable contender to thwart their aspirations.

  1. Has the Premier League title ever been determined by goal difference?

    Who could forget Agueroooooo?! How could it slip your mind?! Manchester City clinched the 2011/12 Premier League title ahead of Manchester United on goal difference. Sergio Aguero’s 94th-minute goal against QPR sealed the victory, resulting in both teams finishing level on 89 points.

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Soccer Football – Premier League – Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City – Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, Britain – May 14, 2024 Manchester City’s Erling Braut Haaland scores their second goal from the penalty spot Action Images via Reuters/Peter Cziborra

Read More: EXPLAINED: How Oliver Glasner Has Transformed Crystal Palace And Why The Owners Must Support His Ambition

Pep Guardiola’s team surged two points ahead at the summit of the table following a 2-0 victory over Tottenham on Tuesday, positioning the reigning champions just one game away from clinching an unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League title.

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On the final day of the season, City will welcome West Ham to their home ground, knowing that victory will once again secure the coveted trophy. However, Arsenal remains in contention to overtake City on the final day, as Mikel Arteta’s squad prepares to face Everton at their own venue.

Considering the stakes, what are the necessary steps for each team to claim the Premier League trophy next weekend? Moreover, is it conceivable that the title might ultimately be determined by goal difference?

Here’s the standings of the English Premier League:

Pos.TeamPWDLGDPTSForm
1Manchester City3727736088WWWWWW
2Arsenal3727556186LWWWWW
3Liverpool37231044379LWLDWD

What Does Manchester City Need To Do To Win The Title?

For Manchester City to secure the title, they only need to defeat West Ham at the Etihad on Sunday. This victory would mark them as the first team in English football history to achieve four consecutive top-flight titles.

However, if Arsenal does not manage to defeat Everton at home in their final match, City will clinch the title regardless of their result against David Moyes’ team.

PTFRCX4GIFOHJJED2P5MY775HE What Does Arsenal or Manchester City Need To Do To Win The League? Premier League Title Race Scenarios
Soccer Football – Premier League – Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City – Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, Britain – May 14, 2024 Manchester City’s Erling Braut Haaland celebrates scoring their second goal Action Images via Reuters/Peter Cziborra

Moreover, there exists the intriguing possibility of the title being decided by goal difference if both teams conclude the campaign level on points!

What Does Arsenal Need To Do To Win The Title?

For Arsenal to claim the title, they must secure a victory against Everton on the final day of the season and simultaneously rely on Manchester City failing to defeat West Ham.

5EPHC2Q7SJPMNL5R6XBGDTQDCE What Does Arsenal or Manchester City Need To Do To Win The League? Premier League Title Race Scenarios
Soccer Football – Premier League – Manchester United v Arsenal – Old Trafford, Manchester, Britain – May 12, 2024 Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka in action with Manchester United’s Kobbie Mainoo REUTERS/Carl Recine

Should Mikel Arteta’s team falter with anything less than a win, the title will inevitably slip into the hands of his former employers.

Title Decider: How Goal Difference Could Tip the Scale

The dramatic title race this season could culminate with both Arsenal and City tied on points.

In such a scenario, Arsenal must secure a victory against Everton, while City would need to settle for a draw against West Ham.

Crucially, Arsenal currently holds a goal difference advantage of one over City. Therefore, should the teams end the season level on points, Arsenal would emerge victorious due to their superior goal difference.

Supercomputer Analysis: City’s Odds Surge After Tottenham Win, but Arsenal Still in the Running

According to Opta, what’s the verdict from the supercomputer?

Following their victory at Tottenham, Manchester City’s odds of clinching the title soared by 25 percent to 84 percent, while Arsenal’s chances plummeted by the same margin to 16 percent.

Despite this, there’s still a 25 percent probability that Guardiola’s team could stumble against West Ham on the last day.

5BC2LN3NTZPIBO4ZZGB3IAFCW4 What Does Arsenal or Manchester City Need To Do To Win The League? Premier League Title Race Scenarios
Soccer Football – Premier League – Manchester United v Arsenal – Old Trafford, Manchester, Britain – May 12, 2024 Manchester United’s Alejandro Garnacho shoots at goal as Arsenal’s Ben White attempts to block REUTERS/Carl Recine

In the event of such a setback, Arsenal could secure their first Premier League title in two decades by defeating Everton. Encouragingly, there’s a 62 percent likelihood of that outcome materializing.

Is a Premier League title playoff decider a possibility?

In brief – no.

If Manchester City and Arsenal finish with the same number of points at the end of 38 games, the team with the better goal difference will be declared champions.

In the event of a tie in goal difference, the decision would then be based on goals scored and the outcomes of their matches against each other.

Throughout the Premier League era the team holding the reins on the final day has consistently emerged victorious and claimed the title. Image Credits Skysports What Does Arsenal or Manchester City Need To Do To Win The League? Premier League Title Race Scenarios
Throughout the Premier League era, the team holding the reins on the final day has consistently emerged victorious and claimed the title. Image Credits – Skysports

However, for the teams to end level on goal difference, Manchester City would need to draw with West Ham on the final day. Considering that a draw would not improve City’s goal difference, which is currently lower than Arsenal’s, and they wouldn’t have a chance to better it, a playoff scenario is out of the question.

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