Brazil are predicted to win the 2022 World Cup on penalties against Belgium according to BetVictor’s World Cup supercomputer. The final is expected to end in a 2-2 stalemate, with Brazil taking the win on penalties 5-4.
- Brazil have the highest probability of winning the tournament with 14%, followed by Belgium (13%), Argentina (10%), and England (8%)
- The predictive model expects five games to go to extra time, two of which will go to a penalty shootout
- The USA are predicted to play the Netherlands in the Round of 16, with the Netherlands winning the game in extra time
- England are predicted to beat France in a Quarter-final penalty shootout but lose 2-0 to Belgium in the Semi-final
- Brazil and Argentina are predicted to face in the Semi-final with the game requiring extra time and finishing 3-2
2022 World Cup Simulation
At the heart of the supercomputer is a match simulator that uses Poisson distribution to generate score lines, the mean value given to the Poisson distributor is based on an algorithm that assesses the skill level of teams in addition to past goals scored data from previous World Cups. Games are then simulated thousands of times to calculate match outcomes and tournament probabilities.
To predict how many games went to extra time or penalties we evaluated tournament data from the past five World Cups. 35% of Knockout games went to extra time, and 57.33% of those games went to Penalties – these probabilities were coded into the model for the KO stage.
To determine the specific games that went to extra time or penalties, unique probabilities were calculated during the simulation itself using a formula to generate an assigned probability to fixtures based on the relative skill gap between teams. For example, if the teams facing were a similar skill level the fixture had a higher probability of going to extra time and penalties than other KO games in the same tournament simulation.
The World Cup predictor will be updated throughout the tournament to provide all the latest probabilities. You can view it here.
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