Kioxia Managing Director Shunsuke Nakato confirmed on January 22, 2026 that the company’s entire 2026 NAND production capacity is already sold out, with shortages expected through 2027. Speaking at Seoul’s Nine Tree Premier Locus Hotel, Nakato declared “the days of cheap 1TB SSDs for around $45 are over” as AI demand reshapes consumer storage markets, with 1TB TLC NAND chip prices doubling from $4.80 to $10.70 in six months.
NAND Flash Crisis Overview
| Metric | Impact |
|---|---|
| 2026 Capacity | Completely sold out (all manufacturers) |
| Price Increase | 1TB TLC chip: $4.80 → $10.70 (123% jump) |
| Timeline | Shortages through 2027, new fabs late 2027+ |
| SSD Price Trend | Consumer SSDs rising 40%+ per quarter |
| AI Demand Growth | Enterprise SSDs +20% annually vs single-digit wafer supply |
| Last Bargain Era | Late 2023/early 2024 (1TB SSDs under $50) |
AI Data Centers Consume Entire NAND Supply
AI infrastructure buildout has created unprecedented NAND demand, with inference clusters requiring tens of petabytes of high-performance flash. Phison CEO Khein-Seng Pua confirmed “every NAND manufacturer told us 2026 sold out. All the capacity sold out”, with enterprise customers securing multiyear contracts that squeeze consumer SSD availability.
For PC builders, the window for affordable SSDs closed months ago, with prices continuing upward through 2026 and potentially into 2027. Production costs for memory components increased over 30% year-on-year, forcing manufacturers to prioritize lucrative enterprise markets over retail consumers.
“Gentleman’s Agreement” Protects Existing Contracts
Kioxia deploys a “gentleman’s agreement” approach based on trust and long-term relationships rather than auctioning NAND to highest bidders. This distribution strategy maintains existing client commitments but means new buyers face severe allocation constraints as hyperscalers and cloud providers consume the pipeline.
TrendForce forecasts client SSD contract prices rising over 40% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026—the steepest increase among NAND products—as suppliers shift capacity toward higher-margin data center SSDs while high-capacity QLC supply remains limited.
BiCS8 Production Won’t Ease Shortage Until Late 2027
Kioxia’s Kitakami fab should soon start full-scale production of 8th-generation BiCS (BiCS8) flash, while the Yokkaichi factory uses AI and IoT to collect 50TB manufacturing data daily maximizing yield. However, new production lines won’t be ready until late 2027 at earliest, leaving consumers stuck with high prices for years.
Nakato expressed skepticism about QLC technology’s lifespan and performance, arguing eighth-generation NAND flash remains preferable as it overcomes those issues structurally. Some industry observers suggest no relief through 2028 and beyond as AI demand shows no signs of slowing.
The message is clear: if you need storage upgrades, act immediately before prices climb further throughout 2026.
