Ming-Chi Kuo’s December 2024 market report highlights a sharp decline in iPhone sales in China, with shipments falling by 10-12% compared to December 2023. Kuo attributes the poor performance to a lack of significant innovation in the newest family of iPhones, the iPhone 16 series. Such small changes over the previous generation were not enough to spark interest in Chinese consumers.
This is meaningful, especially given that the Chinese mobile phone market has broadly been relatively healthy, with overall shipments largely flat through last month. This elevated status suggests that whatever is off-beat with Apple’s performance has nothing to do with the broad market, but rather issues with its product lines.
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iPhone Shipments in China Saw a Sharp Decline in December 2024, Reports Kuo
For 2025, Kuo was downbeat on Apple’s hopes of winning back market share in China. He expects the sales challenges to continue through the first half of 2025, with the expected launch of the iPhone SE4 failing to offset declines for the time being. The SE lineup has not historically made much of an impact in China, so it’s unlikely to have much effect in reversing the sales trend.
Kuo raised concerns over the iPhone 17 series, too. Others suggest the upcoming range might even be entirely eSIM with no physical SIM card slot at all. However a fine move overall, it could cause issues in China, where some of its carriers still don’t support eSIM, and not every user there might be eager to jump to eSIM just yet. This in turn would cripple the reception of the iPhone 17 in one of its key markets.
Kuo’s 2025 worldwide sales forecast is 225 million iPhones, up from about 220 million for 2024 globally. It nevertheless falls short of the 240 million originally expected, which suggests Apple’s sales growth will come in below what was previously predicted. Declining sales in China, possible problems with the iPhone 17, and a lack of significant innovation could all hold back Apple’s growth in 2025.
FAQs
Why did iPhone sales decline in China in December 2024?
The decline is attributed to a lack of innovation in the iPhone 16 series.
Will the iPhone SE4 boost Apple’s sales in China?
Unlikely, as the SE lineup typically has limited impact in the Chinese market.
