Breaking Down PSG’s Weaknesses: How Arsenal Can Beat PSG in the Champions League Final

Arsenal are one win away from history.

Victory in Saturday’s Champions League final in Budapest would make them the 25th different winners of the competition — including its time as the European Cup — having never previously lifted the trophy. Having already wrapped up the Premier League title last week, they would become just the fourth English club to complete the European double.

The only obstacle is Paris Saint-Germain.

That means Arsenal must beat the reigning European champions to claim their crown — or survive 120 minutes and hope to win on penalties. Either way, it is a formidable ask.

PSG won last season’s final against Inter 5-0, having knocked out Liverpool, Aston Villa, and Arsenal along the way. This season, they have eliminated Monaco, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Bayern Munich in the knockout stages. They have won each of their last five ties against Premier League opponents and, in keeping Bayern Munich at arm’s length in the second leg of the semi-final, proved they can handle the very best. At the time of that victory, Bayern were ranked the best team in the world in the Opta Power Rankings.

That top spot now belongs to Arsenal, who moved into first place last week. The final is between the world’s two best teams. But understanding exactly where PSG can be hurt is the starting point for everything Arsenal need to do.

Assumption One: PSG Will Score

Before outlining how Arsenal can win, it is worth establishing an uncomfortable truth: stopping PSG’s forward line — Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia — is something very few opponents manage.

PSG need just one more goal in the Champions League to match Barcelona’s record of 45 goals scored in a single European Cup season, set in 1999-2000. Across all competitions, they have scored in each of their last 27 games, netting 62 times — a rate of 2.24 goals per game.

The quality of opposition in some of those fixtures is clearly variable. But in recent weeks alone, PSG put four past Liverpool over two legs, five and then three past Chelsea, and five past Bayern Munich. Inter’s entire gameplan in last season’s final was essentially to defend as long as possible and hope. It ended 5-0.

Arsenal would be wise not to adopt the same approach. The assumption heading into Budapest should probably be that PSG will score, and Arsenal’s tactical plan must account for that. A team that has won 11 games by exactly 1-0 this season — more than any other club in Europe’s top five leagues across all competitions — will naturally be drawn toward defensive solidity. But this occasion likely demands more than that.

Arsenal may well need to go on the attack.

The Pressing Blueprint: Learn From the Etihad

That Arsenal would attack in the final is not as dramatic a suggestion as it might seem. Their approach at the Etihad Stadium against Manchester City last month provides the template.

That day, Arsenal pressed from the first whistle — applying 474 pressures to their opponents, more than in any other Premier League game this season. They did not sit off at any stage. They were aggressive, front-footed, and relentless. And it was Kai Havertz’s high pressing that directly forced the only goal of the game.

PSG give reason to believe a similar approach could work. Despite their technical quality, they are surprisingly susceptible to errors under pressure.

These are not figures associated with a team as technically gifted as PSG. They get into trouble playing out from the back with surprising regularity. Only two teams in the Champions League this season have lost possession within 40 metres of their own goalline more frequently than PSG, who have done so 141 times at an average of 8.8 times per game.

That per-game rate of 8.8 high turnovers conceded places them 14th among the 36 teams in this season’s competition. The context makes it even more striking:

Teams PSG consider their peers — Bayern, Arsenal, Liverpool, City — all rank among the competition’s best five in this regard. PSG are nowhere near them. And only two teams in the Champions League this season have conceded more goals following a high turnover of possession than PSG’s four, with only six teams posting a worse per-game rate of 0.25 — one every four games. The list of those six clubs: PSV, Tottenham, Bodø/Glimt, Juventus, Chelsea, and Copenhagen. It is not a group PSG will want to be associated with.

Tottenham — one of those teams — actually scored after winning the ball high up the pitch against PSG during their 5-3 defeat in Paris in November. Arsenal’s high press, applied with the intensity they showed at the Etihad, has a genuine chance of replicating exactly that.

The Set-Piece Dimension

Arsenal’s set-piece expertise needs no introduction. They hold the Premier League record for goals scored from corners in a single season and have been among the most dangerous dead-ball teams in Europe all campaign.

PSG are not entirely secure from set-pieces. Only five Ligue 1 clubs conceded a higher proportion of their goals from set-piece situations this season than PSG’s 20.7%. And they have not yet encountered an opponent with anything close to Arsenal’s threat at dead balls.

Set-pieces arrive infrequently and are not guaranteed, but they represent a viable avenue to goal that Arsenal’s planning will almost certainly address in detail.

Attack Down PSG’s Right: The Hakimi Vulnerability

Perhaps the single most exploitable tactical weakness PSG possess is the space that opens up down their right flank whenever Achraf Hakimi pushes forward.

Hakimi is one of the best attacking right-backs in world football, and Luis Enrique encourages him to get forward at every opportunity. But that attacking licence creates a clear defensive liability. Of all 36 teams in this season’s Champions League, only PSV and Chelsea have seen their opponents create more chances down their right side than PSG’s 37.3%.

The evidence of what teams have done with that space is instructive:

• Tottenham’s Archie Gray scored after Arsenal’s opponents attacked down that flank and put a ball across the face of goal during Spurs’ trip to Paris in November.
• Chelsea’s Pedro Neto did the same in their knockout tie against PSG.
• Luis Díaz’s exceptional goal for Bayern at the Parc des Princes in the semi-final came after a darting run in behind the PSG defence that Hakimi made no effort to track, leaving the Colombian one-on-one with a helpless Marquinhos.

The pattern is clear: get in behind PSG down their right side, and the results can be devastating.

This makes Arsenal’s choice on the left wing one of the most tactically significant decisions Mikel Arteta will make ahead of Saturday. Leandro Trossard has occupied that position in most of Arsenal’s recent meaningful games. But there is a credible argument that Gabriel Martinelli’s direct running and raw pace could be better equipped to exploit the space in behind Hakimi — driving at the defender and stretching PSG’s defensive structure in the way Díaz did so effectively for Bayern.

The Cold Hard Truth

There is no avoiding it: Arsenal will be up against it on Saturday.

PSG are going for back-to-back Champions League crowns. Arsenal have lost their last four major European finals. The reigning champions have conceded just four goals in nine knockout matches across this season’s competition. They are experienced, settled, and motivated.

But PSG have flaws — real, exploitable ones. Their back four can be exposed by pace in behind on their right side. Their goalkeeper and defenders make errors under pressure. Their high turnover rate is genuinely concerning for a team of their quality. And no opponent this season has arrived with Arsenal’s specific combination of set-piece threat, high-press intensity, and defensive resilience.

Arsenal will need to be nearly perfect from front to back. But the route to winning is clear: press high, attack down the left, threaten at set-pieces, and defend for their lives when the ball goes the other way.

History awaits. It is within reach. Ninety minutes stand between Arsenal and their first Champions League title.

Read More: Why Vitinha Has Become the Heartbeat of Luis Enrique’s PSG

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