Sunday’s Derby della Madonnina perhaps gives Milan their last opportunity to threaten Inter’s Serie A title charge. Ahead of the game at San Siro, we look at five Milan vs Inter subplots.
While it might not be the best time to be an Italian football fan—Inter and Juventus both exited the Champions League last week, with only Atalanta progressing—there is something about watching Milan against Inter in the iconic surroundings of San Siro that will always intrigue.
Table of Contents
The Title Race Context
When the final whistle was blown in the reverse fixture in November, Milan won 1-0 and went second in Serie A, a point ahead of the Nerazzurri and only two points behind then-leaders Roma. Those celebrations seem like rather a long time ago now.
Ahead of Sunday’s Derby della Madonnina, Inter lead Milan by 10 points at the top of Serie A. Therefore, realistically, Massimiliano Allegri’s men must beat them again just to preserve some semblance of a race for the Scudetto.
Serie A Title Race Transformation
| Timeframe | Situation |
|---|---|
| November (reverse fixture) | Top 4 separated by 1 point |
| November (reverse fixture) | Juventus in 7th, 5 points off first |
| Current (27 matches) | Inter lead Milan by 10 points |
| Current | Inter 16 points ahead of Roma (4th) |
Only three months ago, we wrote about how tight the title race in Italy’s top flight was. There was only one point separating the top four at the time, while Juventus in seventh place were only five points off first. After winning 14 of their 15 games since the last Milan derby in late November (D1), Inter have opened up a 10-point lead, and are 16 points ahead of Roma in fourth.
Inter have 67 points. It’s just the third time they’ve had as many after 27 matches in a single Serie A season after 2006-07 (73) and 2023-24 (72).
A victory for Cristian Chivu’s side on Sunday will give them a 13-point advantage with just 10 games remaining, surely ending any discussion about where the Scudetto is heading in 2025-26.
Inter won the title in 97.4 percent of the Opta supercomputer’s most recent simulations, while Milan were only able to overtake them in 2.1 percent. That will obviously change should the Rossoneri complete a league double over their city rivals, but where could this game be won and lost?
We’ve looked at five key subplots that should go a long way to deciding how much life is left in the Serie A title race after Sunday night.
1. Milan Must Avoid Another Draw
Draws are a killer in a title race, which Milan know all too well. Allegri’s men have only been beaten twice in the league this season, while Inter have lost four times. However, Milan have also drawn nine games, compared to their rivals doing so just once. That is where the huge points gap has appeared from.
Milan vs Inter Season Comparison
| Stat | Milan | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 9 | 1 |
| Points Dropped in Draws | 18 | 2 |
Milan’s inability to nudge tight games in their favour has seen them drop 18 points in nine draws. They managed to avoid making it 10 stalemates last time out against Cremonese after Strahinja Pavlovic broke the deadlock in the 89th minute, with Rafael Leão adding a second in stoppage time.
The only way for Milan to rescue their title ambitions is to win this game, which they did back in November thanks to a Christian Pulisic goal and a Mike Maignan penalty save. They have won four of the last six Milan derbies and are unbeaten in six games against Inter for the first time since November 2002 to April 2005.
2. Maignan to the Rossoneri’s Rescue Again?
Inter have scored comfortably the most goals in Serie A this season (64), at least 18 more than any other team, and 21 more than Milan (43). Lautaro Martínez has scored 14 of those goals and is the only player in Serie A to have reached double figures this season. However, the Argentina international is likely to miss this game with a calf injury.
Milan goalkeeper Mike Maignan is likely to be busy. Only Roma (19) have conceded fewer goals than Milan (20) in Serie A this season, and the latter largely have Maignan to thank. The French stopper has conceded 20 goals from 29.2 expected goals on target (xGOT) conceded, meaning he has overperformed by 9.2 xGOT, the most in the league. In fact, only Angers’ Hervé Koffi (9.4) has prevented more goals in Europe’s top five leagues.
The last derby in November brought out the best in Maignan. He made six saves in the game, one of which was from a Hakan Çalhanoglu penalty. Inter had 20 shots in total, the most they’ve had without scoring in a Serie A Milan derby on record (since 2004-05).
3. Can Milan Stop Dimarco?
Martínez may be absent, but as long as Inter have Federico Dimarco, chances to score will be there. The Italian wing-back has 20 Serie A goal involvements this season, including 14 assists, twice as many as any other player.
The only other defender to record as many goal involvements in a single Serie A season since it expanded to 20 teams (in 2004) was former Milan player Massimo Oddo while he was at Lazio in 2005-06 (7 goals, 13 assists).
Dimarco has created 74 chances this season, at least 19 more than anyone else. Of those, 28 have been big chances—more than double any other player (no-one else has more than 12). In fact, it’s six more than anyone else from Europe’s top five leagues.
Half of his 20 goal involvements have come in his last six games, with Dimarco racking up eight assists in five outings against Pisa (2), Cremonese (1), Sassuolo (3), Juventus (1) and Lecce (1), before scoring in the 2-0 win over Genoa. Milan will have to figure out how to limit his influence, as they did in November when Dimarco created just one chance.
4. Modric vs Barella
The midfield battle will be important on Sunday, with Luka Modric and Nicolò Barella as the headline acts. Modric, at 40, is still playing at the highest level. Only eight players have created more chances than him in Serie A this term (45).
Some expected the Croatian to be used sparingly following his move from Real Madrid last summer, but he has made more Serie A appearances than any other Milan outfielder this season (26) and all but one were starts. Modric has chipped in with two goals and three assists.
Barella has five assists and a goal in 24 Serie A games and has created 45 chances from open play. Only Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz (47) and teammate Dimarco (46) can better that. Both had quiet games in the reverse fixture, each winning possession seven times but only creating one chance between them (Barella).
5. Captain America to Star Again?
Christian Pulisic scored the winner in the reverse fixture when the United States international was in excellent form. He does often rise to the big occasion, but he will need to rediscover that form, having had very little impact since the turn of the year.
Pulisic’s last goal for Milan in Serie A was against Hellas Verona on 28 December. He hasn’t recorded a goal or an assist in any of his nine league appearances since. However, he does have a good record against Inter, having found the net in three of his last six Milan derbies.
Allegri has another attacking weapon with Rafael Leão now Milan’s top scorer in the league this season after he slotted his ninth of the campaign in the win at Cremonese. Pulisic and Leão have played as a front pairing in the last two games for Milan, and if they can drag Inter’s defence around as much as Bodø/Glimt were able to in the Champions League, they could be in business.
Read More: Seven Reds in 28 Games and Counting: How Chelsea’s Discipline Is Costing Them
FAQs
What is the current points gap between Milan and Inter?
Inter lead Milan by 10 points at the top of Serie A after 27 matches. A victory for Inter on Sunday would extend that gap to 13 points with just 10 games remaining, effectively ending the title race.
Why has Milan fallen behind despite fewer losses than Inter?
Milan have lost just twice this season compared to Inter’s four defeats, but the Rossoneri have drawn nine games while Inter have drawn only once. This has resulted in Milan dropping 18 points in draws, creating the 10-point gap.
Will Lautaro Martínez play in the derby?
The Argentina international, who has scored 14 goals this season (the only Serie A player in double figures), is likely to miss the game with a calf injury, potentially weakening Inter’s attack.
