Five Decisive Battles That Could Shape the Title in Man City vs Arsenal

It all comes down to this.

Well, no, that’s not quite true. The Premier League title race won’t be over whatever happens when Manchester City host Arsenal on Sunday. But the result will have a big, big say on who wins it.

Pep Guardiola has called it a “final.” Arsenal, currently six points clear, know a win would all but wrap up the league. A draw might be enough, too. Defeat, meanwhile, would put City in the driving seat.

There’s no getting away from it. Sunday is huge.

So, where will the match be won and lost? Here are five key subplots that could decide this titanic clash.

1. Big-Game Mentality and Home Dominance

There are big games, and then there are big games. While City still have an interest in the FA Cup and Arsenal in the Champions League, there is no question that this is the biggest game remaining for both teams this season.

So, how have City and Arsenal fared on big occasions in the Premier League this season?

Using the traditional ‘big six’ as a barometer (Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Manchester United, and Tottenham), both sides have identical records against their rivals this campaign.

However, Arsenal would be far happier with a draw, and they can take comfort from their recent Premier League record against City. The Gunners had lost 12 in a row against the Citizens before winning 1-0 at the Emirates in October 2023, and they are now unbeaten in their last five against City in the league (W2 D3).

City looked set to end that winless run in the reverse fixture in October, where Erling Haaland’s ninth-minute strike held up until second-half stoppage time. But Gabriel Martinelli’s dramatic late equaliser meant the points were shared.

It means City have won just one of their last seven games against Arsenal in all competitions (D4 L2), though that victory did come just last month in the League Cup final. Two goals from Nico O’Reilly handed City a 2-0 win at Wembley in a fairly one-sided contest.

Despite Arsenal’s recent dominance in head-to-head league meetings, City possess formidable home strength. City’s first home game of the season saw a 2-0 loss to Tottenham, but they have not lost at the Etihad in the Premier League since, winning 11 and drawing three of their last 14. They have scored at least twice in 12 of those 14 home games.

City have played one home game fewer (15) than every other team in the Premier League, but they have the joint-most goals scored (36) and joint-fewest conceded (11) at home alongside Arsenal. They are now the only team to have lost fewer than two home games this season after Arsenal’s defeat to Bournemouth last weekend. Should they be victorious on Sunday, they will also have won the most home points this season (39 – Arsenal currently sit on 38 from their 16 home games).

In their last home game, City thrashed Liverpool 4-0 in the FA Cup, so they will likely come into this one with a skip in their step, especially considering Guardiola’s record against Arsenal. Throughout his managerial career, the former Barcelona and Bayern Munich boss has both faced (34) and beaten (21) the Gunners on more occasions than he has any other opponent.

2. Haaland vs Gabriel: The Personal Battle

It’s rare these days to find rival players who really don’t get along. Fans who remember the earlier years of the Premier League will recall some pretty tasty battles, the type of which we just don’t see these days.

That’s what makes the duels between City centre-forward Haaland and Arsenal centre-back Gabriel Magalhães so compelling. While we can’t be certain that they actively dislike each other, it’s clear that both are at least in part driven by the chance to get one over the other.

The rivalry dates back to Haaland telling Mikel Arteta to “stay humble” following the 2-2 draw at the Etihad in September 2024, just moments after the Norwegian had bounced the ball off Gabriel’s head as he celebrated City’s late equaliser.

Six months later, Gabriel celebrated Arsenal’s opener in a 5-1 win over City directly in Haaland’s face. Haaland responded later in the game by pointing at the Premier League badge on his shirt sleeve to remind his rival that City were – at the time – the reigning champions.

Gabriel’s motivation for winning the Premier League isn’t the opportunity to flaunt it in Haaland’s face, but it would surely be an added benefit. And Haaland surely wouldn’t “stay humble” with Gabriel if City win on Sunday.

3. Can Arsenal Keep Cherki and Doku Quiet?

Rayan Cherki and Jérémy Doku were integral to Man City’s 3-0 win at Chelsea last week, in what was the first Premier League game they had both started since early December.

When it comes to Guardiola’s team selections, you can never be entirely sure what he’ll do, but given their form, it would be a surprise to see Cherki or Doku dropped to the bench here.

Former Lyon man Cherki is having a brilliant first season in English football. He has 10 assists from just 1,384 Premier League minutes, averaging an assist every 138.4 minutes. Of players to record at least 10 assists in a Premier League campaign, only two have ever averaged lower: Cesc Fàbregas in 2016-17 (110.6 mins) and Kevin De Bruyne in 2023-24 (122.7 mins).

Cherki is averaging 0.47 expected assists per 90, comfortably the most in the Premier League of players to have played at least 300 minutes this season.

To emphasise City’s threat, Doku is averaging 0.33 xA per 90. Of players to have played at least 1,000 minutes in the Premier League this season, it is the third most, with only Bruno Fernandes (0.34) separating Cherki and Doku.

Doku only has two goals and four assists in the league this season, but his strike against Chelsea showed a man in form and with confidence. He has also attempted (124) and completed (65) the most dribbles of any player in the Premier League this campaign.

Arsenal’s defence has been largely fantastic this season. They have conceded the fewest goals (24), allowed the fewest shots (250) and conceded the lowest xG (23.2) in the Premier League. Keeping Cherki and Doku quiet could be among their biggest challenges to date, though.

4. Have Arsenal Run Out of Steam?

Arsenal are stumbling towards the finish line. Everyone knows it, and the fans are terrified that history is repeating itself.

After a 2-1 loss to Bournemouth last weekend and the midweek goalless draw with Sporting CP, they have won only one of their last five matches, losing three. They have crashed out of two cup competitions and allowed City back into the title race when it looked over.

Niggles are rife throughout the squad, and fatigue is setting in. They aren’t hiding it well, either; they look like a team that have played too much football this season and are struggling to contend with the emotional strain of yet another difficult title race.

City, on the other hand, have all the momentum. In their last three games, they have beaten Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea by an aggregate score of 9-0. They appear to be hitting form at just the right time.

While nobody at the club would openly admit it, Arsenal are surely as worried as their fans about what is unfolding before their very eyes. Arteta will surely be worried, too. April is the only month in which he has failed to win at least half of his matches as Arsenal manager.

That is partly because tough games fall in April, but this is also the time of year when their title challenges have typically fallen apart. The hope was this time that the gap at the top was already big enough that they could hold out, but have they slowed down so much that City could catch up?

5. Where Will Arsenal’s Goals Come From?

Paramount in Arsenal’s recent struggles has been a lack of goals. In their last five games, they have scored only three times, and one of them was a penalty against Bournemouth and another was against second-tier Southampton. The only one of any real note was Kai Havertz’s well-taken winner against Sporting in Lisbon last week.

And it’s not like they are missing lots of chances, either. Concerningly, the goals have dried up because chances have, too. Arsenal’s average non-penalty expected goals over their last five games is 1.2 xG. Looking back over their whole season, it has only been lower over any five-match period once before, in the five-game run through August and September that included league games against Liverpool and City (average of 1.1 xG per game).

Key – perhaps fatally so – to those problems has been Arsenal threatening far less from set-pieces than earlier in the season. They haven’t scored from a corner or free-kick situation in any of their last 10 games, and before scoring twice from corners in the 2-1 win over Chelsea – the game before that run – they went six more games without a corner or free-kick goal.

An apparent reliance on dead balls was a stick to beat them with for rivals earlier in the season, but Arsenal – rightly – didn’t care at all because they kept on winning.

Now, though, they aren’t able to lean on set-pieces like they once did, and that is just another barrier to them winning matches. It might be that they need to overcome this issue to get a result on Sunday.

FAQs

What is at stake in Man City vs Arsenal?
Arsenal are six points clear but City have a game in hand. A win for Arsenal would put them in a commanding position, while a City victory would swing the momentum in their favour.

How has Arsenal performed against big teams this season?
Arsenal have lost just two of their nine Premier League games against the ‘big six’, winning four and drawing three.

What is the history between Haaland and Gabriel Magalhães?
The pair have clashed verbally and physically in previous meetings, with Haaland scoring five goals in seven Premier League games against Arsenal, though Gabriel’s side are unbeaten in the last five league encounters.

Why are Arsenal struggling for goals recently?
Arsenal have scored just three times in their last five games and have gone 10 matches without a goal from a set-piece, seeing their chance creation drop significantly.

What is Pep Guardiola’s record against Arsenal?
Guardiola has faced Arsenal 34 times in his career, beating them on 21 occasions – more than he has defeated any other opponent.

Read More: Fatigue, Minutes, and Missed Rotation – Why Arsenal Are Slowing Down at the Worst Time