Newcastle stunned everyone in the first leg of this Carabao Cup semi-final with a 2-0 victory at the Emirates Stadium. Can they finish the job on home turf? Here’s our Newcastle vs Arsenal preview and prediction.
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Newcastle vs Arsenal: Preview
Newcastle United are just one match away from securing their third League Cup final appearance and their second in three seasons. With only the home leg of the semi-final against Arsenal remaining, they aim to book their spot at Wembley.
The Magpies have twice fallen short in the competition’s final, losing 2-1 to Manchester City in 1976 and suffering defeat to Manchester United in the 2022-23 showdown. Now, holding a 2-0 advantage from the first leg in London, they hope to make it third time lucky at St James’ Park.
Their first-leg triumph at the Emirates was powered by Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon, who each found the net in the 10 minutes surrounding halftime, stunning Mikel Arteta’s side on their own turf. Isak, having also scored in Newcastle’s Premier League win over Arsenal in November, has been decisive in both meetings this season—netting the opener and match-winner in each. No Newcastle player has ever scored in three separate games against the Gunners in a single campaign.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have rediscovered their form after a frustrating January that saw them lose the first leg of this tie and exit the FA Cup on penalties to Manchester United. Since then, they have gone unbeaten in six matches, winning five, including a resounding 5-1 victory over defending Premier League champions Manchester City.
The Gunners face an uphill battle, needing to overturn a two-goal deficit on Wednesday. Historically, only one team has managed to progress after losing the first leg of a League Cup semi-final by two or more goals—Aston Villa in 1993-94, when they overcame a 3-1 deficit against second-tier Tranmere Rovers.
Newcastle’s first-leg win was part of a stunning nine-match winning streak across all competitions from mid-December to mid-January. However, they have since suffered two home defeats in their last three games, losing to Bournemouth and Fulham. They haven’t lost three consecutive matches at St James’ Park since February 2021—months before Eddie Howe took charge.
Arsenal have struggled at Newcastle’s fortress in recent visits, failing to score in their last two trips. Martin Ødegaard was the last Arsenal player to find the net at St James’ Park, back in May 2023. The Norwegian captain ended his 13-match goal drought with a strike against Manchester City at the weekend and now has two goals in his last three games.
Arteta will be without several key first-team players for this clash, with Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Ben White, and Takehiro Tomiyasu all sidelined. However, he can take confidence from the impressive performances of academy talents Ethan Nwaneri and Myles Lewis-Skelly, who have stepped up in recent months.
Newcastle, meanwhile, remain hopeful that Joelinton will be available, though Eddie Howe has admitted he is a major doubt after picking up an injury in the weekend defeat to Fulham. On a brighter note, Callum Wilson could make his first appearance since December, but Harvey Barnes and Jamaal Lascelles remain unavailable.
Newcastle vs Arsenal: Head-to-Head
Newcastle have won four of their last seven encounters with Arsenal across all competitions (D1 L2), matching their total victories from the previous 45 meetings. However, they have never defeated the Gunners three times in a single season.
Arsenal suffered a 2-0 defeat in the first leg last month despite registering 23 shots and an expected goals (xG) tally of 3.2. They also fell 1-0 at St James’ Park in their Premier League clash in November. In the 21st century, Arsenal have only failed to score in three separate games against the same opponent in a single season on three occasions—against Liverpool (2021-22), Chelsea (2013-14), and Manchester United (2004-05).
Newcastle vs Arsenal: Team News and Predicted Lineup
Newcastle – Team News
Newcastle remain without Harvey Barnes (muscle) and Jamaal Lascelles (ACL) due to injury, but Callum Wilson has a slim chance of making the matchday squad after more than eight weeks out with a hamstring issue.
Nick Pope has been on the bench for the last two matches after recovering from a knee injury that sidelined him for 11 games. Eddie Howe must now decide whether to restore him as the starting goalkeeper or stick with Martin Dubravka.
In defense, Howe may consider bringing Sven Botman back into the lineup, potentially replacing either Fabian Schär or Dan Burn. Former Arsenal midfielder Joe Willock is also pushing for a starting spot, competing with Joelinton and Sandro Tonali in midfield. Meanwhile, Bruno Guimarães is expected to return to the XI after missing the first leg due to suspension.
Newcastle – Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)
- Goalkeeper – Pope
- Defenders – Livramento, Botman, Schar, Hall
- Midfielders – Tonali, Guimaraes, Joelinton
- Forwards – Murphy, Isak, Gordon
Arsenal – Team News
Mikel Arteta is expected to stick with the same Arsenal lineup for tonight’s Carabao Cup semi-final second leg against Newcastle at St. James’ Park.
The Gunners travel to Tyneside full of confidence after a commanding 5-1 victory over Manchester City on Sunday. With no fresh injury concerns from that match, Arteta has the option to field an unchanged XI.
However, he faces some key selection decisions, particularly in attack. Ethan Nwaneri made an impact off the bench against City, scoring Arsenal’s fifth goal. The 17-year-old has now netted seven times this season, including three in the Carabao Cup.
“The only thing I want from him is to keep doing what he’s doing—playing with freedom, tenacity, and confidence,” Arteta said. “He has the ability to make things happen, and whether he does or not, it’s just a matter of time.”
Despite their strong recent form, Arsenal have a tough task ahead as they look to overturn a 2-0 first-leg deficit against Newcastle.
“The next stop is a final at Wembley, so we know how big this is,” Arteta said. “You can feel the importance of the game straight away. The win against City gave us a huge boost, and now we’re going to give this our all.”
Arsenal – Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)
- Goalkeeper – Raya
- Defenders – Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly
- Midfielders – Odegaard, Partey, Rice
- Forwards – Martinelli, Havertz, Trossard
Newcastle vs Arsenal: Prediction
Newcastle’s recent dip in form comes at the perfect time for an Arsenal side riding high after their emphatic win over Manchester City last weekend. While St. James’ Park is an intimidating venue for most teams, the Gunners have the quality to achieve a positive result on Wednesday.
However, securing the three-goal victory they need to progress remains a tough challenge. The Magpies will likely aim to disrupt Arsenal’s rhythm and, even if they lose on the night, could still advance on aggregate.
Match Prediction: Newcastle 3-2 Arsenal
When and Where to Watch Newcastle vs Arsenal? Broadcast and Streaming Details
The match will take place on Wednesday, February 5, at 8:00 PM UK time at St. James’ Park. For viewers in India, the game will kick off on Thursday, February 6, at 1:30 AM. The Newcastle United vs Arsenal Carabao Cup 2024-25 match will not be broadcast live on TV in India. However, fans can stream the match live via the FanCode app and website.
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FAQs
Where can I watch the Newcastle vs Arsenal Carabao Cup semi-final in India?
The match will not be televised in India, but fans can stream it live on the FanCode app and website.
What is the aggregate score going into the second leg?
Newcastle lead 2-0 from the first leg, having won at the Emirates Stadium with goals from Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon.
Which key players are missing for Arsenal and Newcastle?
Arsenal will be without Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Ben White, and Takehiro Tomiyasu, while Newcastle are missing Harvey Barnes and Jamaal Lascelles, with Joelinton and Callum Wilson doubtful.
What is Arsenal’s recent form ahead of this match?
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six games, winning five, including a dominant 5-1 victory over Manchester City.
Have Newcastle ever beaten Arsenal three times in a single season?
No, Newcastle have never defeated Arsenal three times in one campaign, but they have already won twice against them this season.
