In the wake of the tragic Pahalgam terror attack, which claimed the lives of 26 civilians in Jammu and Kashmir, emotions are running high across India. The public’s demand for swift and decisive action against Pakistan-based terror groups is palpable, with calls for retribution echoing on social media and in political circles.
Yet, as the drums of war grow louder, seasoned diplomats and strategic experts are urging caution, reminding the nation that the true cost of conflict between two nuclear-armed neighbors is far greater than most imagine. The specter of an India-Pakistan war is not just a matter of military might or national pride—it is a question of survival, resilience, and the willingness to bear unimaginable risks.
Former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, Ajay Bisaria, and strategic affairs expert Sushant Sareen have both stepped forward to offer sobering perspectives on the realities of escalation. Their insights, shared in the aftermath of the Pahalgam attack, highlight the need for strategic patience, national unity, and a clear-eyed understanding of what war would truly entail.
As India grapples with grief and anger, these voices of experience remind us that the decision to go to war must be guided by strategy, not sentiment, and that the consequences of such a choice would reverberate far beyond the battlefield. In this blog, we delve into the expert analysis on the cost of an India-Pakistan war, the risks of escalation, and the critical importance of national preparedness.
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India-Pakistan War Updates
The aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack has reignited tensions between India and Pakistan, with public sentiment pushing for a strong response. However, Ajay Bisaria, who served as India’s top diplomat in Pakistan from 2017 to 2020, cautions against letting emotions dictate national security decisions.
“For any operation to succeed, you need three elements: speed, surprise, and secrecy,” Bisaria explained in a recent podcast. He emphasized that the timing of any military action should be determined by strategic necessity, not public pressure. “We have to fight this battle on our own. When you escalate, you have to be prepared for the worst-case scenario, which is an uncontrolled escalation where you could even be fighting a full-scale war. And have the capacity, intent, political will, and national will to be able to do that,” he added.
The stakes of such a conflict are immense. Sushant Sareen, a leading strategic affairs analyst, warns that a war between India and Pakistan would come with “massive costs and risks.” He paints a stark picture: “If missiles are going to be raining on each other’s cities, then if Islamabad and Lahore are vulnerable, so is Delhi.” Sareen’s words serve as a reminder that in a modern conflict, no city is immune, and the devastation could be widespread and indiscriminate.
Beyond the immediate military risks, Sareen also raises questions about India’s international alliances, particularly with Russia. He points out that Russia has not unequivocally supported India in past confrontations with Pakistan, and questions whether Moscow would stand by New Delhi in a potential conflict with China. “Russians haven’t really come out in our favour. This is something that we should ask our foreign policy establishments,” Sareen notes, highlighting the complexities of global diplomacy in times of crisis.
The information war is another front in this conflict. Sareen supports the Indian government’s decision to ban Pakistani YouTube channels and creators, arguing that it is unacceptable for adversaries to use Indian platforms to spread propaganda and profit from it. “You cannot try and utilise my market and carry out poisonous propaganda against me and make a profit out of it. I’m not going to allow it,” he asserts, underscoring the need for vigilance in the digital age.
Ultimately, the experts agree that while the desire for justice is understandable, the path to war must be navigated with caution, preparation, and a clear understanding of the consequences. The cost of escalation is not just measured in military terms, but in the lives, livelihoods, and stability of millions on both sides of the border.
Key Expert Insights on India-Pakistan War Risks
| Expert | Key Point | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Ajay Bisaria | Timing of action must be strategic, not emotional | Avoid impulsive escalation |
| Sushant Sareen | War brings massive costs; all major cities are vulnerable | Prepare public for risks, not just rhetoric |
| Sushant Sareen | Russia’s support in a wider conflict is uncertain | Rethink foreign policy dependencies |
| Sushant Sareen | Ban on Pakistani YouTube channels justified in extraordinary times | Control information warfare and propaganda |
Potential Consequences of India-Pakistan War
| Consequence | Description |
|---|---|
| Civilian Casualties | High risk of loss of life in major cities due to missile strikes |
| Economic Disruption | Severe impact on trade, markets, and infrastructure |
| Diplomatic Fallout | Strained relations with global powers, uncertain alliances |
| Information Warfare | Increased propaganda, cyber attacks, and media manipulation |
| National Preparedness | Need for unity, resilience, and readiness for worst-case scenarios |
FAQs
A1: The risks include large-scale civilian casualties, economic disruption, destruction of infrastructure, and the possibility of uncontrolled escalation involving missile strikes on major cities.
A2: Experts warn that decisions driven by emotion rather than strategy can lead to hasty escalation, unpreparedness, and unintended consequences that may be catastrophic for both nations.
