Arsenal Still in Control? Five Reasons They Remain Title Favourites Despite Recent Setback

As far as weekends go, this was a nightmarish one for Arsenal.

A flat, disjointed 2-1 home defeat to Bournemouth on Saturday was bad enough. The following day, title rivals Manchester City won convincingly at Chelsea to compound the damage. What had looked, on paper, like a matchday where Arsenal could extend their lead at the top — a winnable home fixture before a potential stumbling block for City — instead turned into one of rising panic.

Arsenal’s lead at the Premier League summit has narrowed from nine points to six, and City still have a game in hand. Before that game in hand is played, the two sides meet at the Etihad Stadium next weekend in a match that could define the entire title race.

The narrative almost writes itself from here. City win that game, play their game in hand, and the title is surely theirs, given how strong they typically are during the business end of the season. In some quarters, that scenario is being discussed as a near-inevitability, as though Arsenal have already let things slip.

That assumption does not exist without fair reason. Arsenal have lost three of their last four matches, eliminated from both domestic cup competitions in the process. The manner of those defeats — particularly against City in the EFL Cup final and against Bournemouth most recently — raises legitimate questions about whether Mikel Arteta’s side can handle the weight of expectation.

But the title race is not over. Far from it. Here are five compelling reasons why Arsenal supporters should remain optimistic.

1. It Is Extremely Difficult to Win Seven Games in a Row

“If Manchester City win all their remaining games, they win the league.”

That phrase has been uttered countless times in the past 24 hours. It is also not technically accurate — if Arsenal lose at City but win their remaining five games, the two sides finish level on points, and goal difference decides the title. But even setting that aside, the assumption embedded in the phrase deserves more scrutiny than it has received.

Winning seven consecutive Premier League games is genuinely difficult. Even for a Pep Guardiola side.

Across the last two seasons, City’s longest winning run in the league stands at six matches, chalked up between November and December last year. Outside of that stretch, their longest winning streak stands at four, achieved only twice. This is not quite the relentless, metronomic City of previous campaigns. They remain formidable — capable of heights perhaps even Arsenal cannot match on a given night. But they are not infallible. Assuming they will produce a flawless run-in is premature and unsupported by their own recent record.

2. Arsenal’s Record in Big Games Remains Strong

Much will hinge on the Etihad meeting next weekend, but Arsenal should approach it as an opportunity rather than a threat. A win there would all but seal the title.

The recent head-to-head record between these two sides in the Premier League is worth revisiting. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last five league meetings against City (W2 D3), having lost 12 in a row prior to that run. The EFL Cup final defeat was alarming, but City played well and Arsenal were a long way from their best — it was not a thrashing that exposed a fundamental gap in quality.

More broadly, Arsenal’s record in high-profile fixtures under Arteta is among the best in the division.

Current Top Six — Mini-League Since 2022-23

Across the last three and a half seasons, in fixtures between sides currently in the Premier League’s top six, Arsenal have lost fewer matches than any of their rivals — just 8 of 39 — and accumulated more points than anyone else in that mini-league. If there is a pattern to Arsenal’s recent slip-ups, it is that they have tended to stumble in fixtures they were expected to win, rather than against direct rivals. That distinction matters enormously heading into the Etihad.

3. The Run-in Still Favours Arsenal on Paper

A home game against Bournemouth looked favourable on paper, and it was not. That is a necessary caveat to apply to any fixture analysis — this is sport, and nothing is guaranteed. As we have already noted, Arsenal have a pattern of dropping points in matches they were expected to control.

That said, a broader look at each side’s remaining schedule does still lean in Arsenal’s favour. Using the Opta Power Rankings to assess opponent strength, their remaining fixtures carry an average opponent rating of 90.4, compared to 92.0 for City.

Fixture Difficulty — Remaining Run-in (Opta Power Rankings, April)

Relative to the rest of the Premier League, Arsenal have the fourth-easiest remaining schedule. Three of their remaining fixtures are at home, where they have been significantly more reliable than away from the Emirates this season. Avoiding defeat at the Etihad next weekend may be enough to retain effective control, particularly if City are forced to navigate a tougher path to the finish line.

4. The Underlying Numbers Remain Strong

A lot has been made of Arsenal’s lack of creativity from open play, and those criticisms are valid. Against Bournemouth on Saturday, they generated just 0.19 expected goals from open play — their lowest total in a Premier League home match since recording 0.17 against Crystal Palace in October 2025. That is a deeply concerning number for a side with title ambitions.

However, their overall expected goals total against Bournemouth was 2.32, with 2.13 of that coming from set-pieces. Their penalty inflates the figure to some degree, but the ability to consistently create high-quality chances from dead-ball situations remains a genuine and repeatable strength. Set-piece goals count as much as any other.

Arsenal Expected Goals Against — 2026

Even during this recent dip, Arsenal have not been conceding high-quality chances at an alarming rate. Bournemouth’s 1.19 xG was the sixth-most Arsenal have conceded in a league game all season — which speaks to how solid the defensive structure has remained. In 2026 alone, they are the only Premier League side conceding fewer than one expected goal per game.

At the other end, they continue to create enough to win football matches. They have won the expected goals battle in 11 of their 13 league games this calendar year. That level of underlying performance does not collapse overnight. The results will follow.

5. The Opta Supercomputer Still Backs Them

“Because our model says so” is not, on its own, the most reassuring thing to say to an Arsenal supporter going through this week. But the Opta supercomputer provides useful, rational context that cuts through the emotion of the past 48 hours.

According to the model’s 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, Arsenal still win the title in 87.0% of them. They remain the bookmakers’ favourites. The data is not panicking, even if the commentary around the title race is.

Opta Supercomputer — Title Race Probability

Strip away the emotion of the past weekend, and there is still a far greater probability than not that Arsenal end the season as champions. No model is infallible, and football has a habit of producing results that confound any simulation. But when 8,700 of 10,000 projected scenarios end with the title at the Emirates, it is worth keeping that figure in mind before treating collapse as inevitable.

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