As the weeks go by and the victories pile up, it has become increasingly difficult to deny that Aston Villa are genuinely in the Premier League title race. With their latest triumph—a 2-1 victory over Manchester United at Villa Park on December 21—Villa have now extended their winning streak to an extraordinary 10 games across all competitions, with seven consecutive Premier League victories.
Morgan Rogers’ brilliant brace against Manchester United epitomized Villa’s championship credentials, as the 23-year-old England star cut in from the left to bend home two stunning strikes—one just before halftime and another in the 57th minute—to secure all three points despite Matheus Cunha’s equalizer.
Aston Villa now sit in third place in the Premier League table with 36 points (11-3-3 record, +9 goal difference), just three points behind leaders Arsenal. This represents their highest position at Christmas in over 30 years, and Villa will spend the festive period firmly entrenched in the title race.
The Opta supercomputer now gives them a 6.4 percent chance of winning the title—not a huge probability, but their exceptional form shows they absolutely deserve to be in the conversation alongside Arsenal and Manchester City. This marks only the second time in 30 years that Villa have beaten Manchester United at Villa Park, underlining the historic nature of their campaign.
Table of Contents
From Crisis to Contenders: Villa’s Remarkable Transformation
The transformation has been nothing short of remarkable. In late September, Aston Villa had made their worst start to a league campaign in 28 years, collecting just two points and scoring zero goals after their first four games. The pessimism was palpable, and few would have predicted what followed.
But Villa have more than turned things around since. Apart from a loss at Anfield on November 1, they’ve won every league match since late September’s comeback against Fulham. This represents the first time Villa have recorded 10 wins from an 11-game run in the Premier League, while the last time they managed such a feat in their top-flight history was way back in 1920.
Their remarkable form has catapulted them up the table from the relegation zone to genuine title challengers in the space of just three months.
The West Ham Victory: A Defining Moment
With the greatest respect to their most recent opponents, beating West Ham United away isn’t exactly the biggest achievement in isolation. However, the manner of the 3-2 victory and the wider context of Villa’s recent form make it profoundly significant.
Villa recovered admirably in the face of adversity, twice coming from behind after conceding cheaply. Firstly in the opening minute after Ezri Konsa had been easily dispossessed inside his own box, and then again when Jarrod Bowen turned a Freddie Potts shot into the net from behind most of the Villa defense.
There was no panic. No lumping the ball forward. No sweeping changes at half-time. Villa have good reason to believe in what they’re doing, and they stuck to their guns.
“Two times, we went behind,” Emery said afterward. “How we came back, in that moment, those goals, I think, is fantastic, because we were getting balance, even losing, and keeping our gameplan, like we planned before the match. And in the dressing room, we were speaking about it. Keep calm, focus again in the second half, the gameplan.”
For just the second time in their Premier League history, Villa won a game having fallen behind twice, with the only other occasion coming back in September 2013 at home against Manchester City. This resilience demonstrates the mark of a team who fully believes in their methods and philosophy.
The Manchester United Victory: Rogers’ Masterclass
Villa’s winning streak reached 10 games with their 2-1 triumph over Manchester United on December 21, and it was Morgan Rogers who stole the show with a performance that will live long in the memory of Villa supporters.
Rogers demonstrated the kind of individual brilliance that separates good teams from title contenders. In the 45th minute, just on the stroke of halftime, the England international received a lofted pass from John McGinn, kept the ball in play, and burst past Leny Yoro toward the corner of the penalty area. Opening up his body, he curled a stunning effort into the top right corner, giving Senne Lammens absolutely no chance.
Matheus Cunha equalized almost immediately when Matty Cash was caught in possession deep inside his own half by Patrick Dorgu, who poked the ball through to Cunha inside the area. The Brazilian striker finished clinically to level at halftime.
But Rogers wasn’t finished. In the 57th minute, Youri Tielemans’ cross rebounded out to Rogers just inside the Manchester United penalty area. His first touch created space before he unleashed a shot that curled past Lammens and into the top right corner—almost identical to his wonderful first-half effort.
Rogers is only the second Aston Villa player to score twice in a Premier League game against Manchester United, and the first Villa player to score two or more goals in back-to-back top-flight appearances since Dion Dublin in November 1998. His four goals in two games (two against West Ham, two against United) mark him as one of the most in-form attackers in the Premier League.
Emiliano Martinez returned in goal after missing two games with a back injury and made crucial saves to preserve the victory, while United were without seven first-team players including the suspended Casemiro and AFCON-bound Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo.
The victory was Villa’s seventh consecutive Premier League win, keeping them third at Christmas and maintaining their position just three points behind Arsenal in the title race.
Statistical Evidence: The Numbers Behind the Success
Villa’s current form represents a historic achievement, but how sustainable is it? The statistical evidence provides fascinating insights into their title credentials.
Winning Streak Analysis
Villa’s run is actually the 220th instance of a team winning at least 30 points from a possible 33 in Premier League history. However, many teams who have achieved similar runs have fallen short of the title—sometimes a long way short.
Recent examples include:
- Arsenal in 2023-24: Similar run, finished second
- Liverpool in 2021-22: Similar run, finished runners-up
- Leicester in 2019-20: Won 10 from 11 early on, finished fifth
These cautionary tales suggest that hot streaks don’t always translate to championship glory.
Expected Goals Evolution
The most intriguing aspect of Villa’s transformation relates to their Expected Goals (xG) data. Earlier this season, Villa were defying statistical probability in remarkable fashion.
Early Season Paradox (First 13 Games):
- 4th in the table despite having 2nd-lowest xG in league (ahead only of Burnley)
- Average xG value per shot: 0.08 (lowest in Premier League)
- Position in Expected Points table: 19th
- Lost xG battle in 8 of first 10 games
- xG per game: 1.2
Villa were winning matches despite being dominated in xG terms, relying heavily on extraordinary long-range shooting ability rather than creating high-quality chances close to goal.
Recent Transformation (Last 3 Games):
- xG per game: 1.7 (up from 1.2)
- Average xG value per shot: 0.15 (almost doubled from 0.08)
- Won xG battle in 4 of last 6 games
- Position in xPts table: 16th (up from 19th)
- Six-game rolling average shows xG for now exceeds xG against
| Villa’s Statistical Evolution | First 13 Games | Last 3 Games |
|---|---|---|
| xG Per Game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Average xG Value Per Shot | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| xG Battles Won | 2 of 10 | 4 of 6 |
| Position in xPts Table | 19th | 16th |
The Long-Range Shooting Phenomenon
Aston Villa have scored more goals from outside the box than any other team in the Premier League this season—a remarkable 10 strikes from distance. They are on course to break the seasonal record of 23 set by Chelsea in 2006-07, currently scoring at a rate of 0.63 long-range goals per game—the highest in Premier League history.
These 10 goals have come from just 42 shots from outside the box—a remarkable conversion rate of 23.8 percent. By comparison, the league average conversion rate from distance is typically around 3-5 percent.
Morgan Rogers exemplifies this ability, having already scored three goals from outside the box this season—more than any other player in the division. His stunning winner against West Ham on December 15 was followed by two more spectacular strikes against Manchester United on December 21, bringing his tally to five goals in his last two games.
Rogers has now been involved in 10 goal contributions in his last 12 Premier League appearances for Villa (7 goals, 3 assists), establishing himself as one of the most dangerous attacking midfielders in the country. His ability to score both long-range screamers and close-range finishes makes him virtually unplayable when in form.
Tactical Evolution: More Than Just Long Shots
While Villa’s long-range prowess captured headlines early in the season, their recent evolution suggests a more sustainable approach combining distance shooting with improved chance creation.
Brighton and Arsenal Breakthroughs
In consecutive matches against Brighton (4-3 win) and Arsenal (2-1 win), Villa demonstrated a tactical maturity that suggests genuine title credentials:
Brighton Match:
- Four goals scored, all from inside the penalty area
- Three goals from inside the six-yard box
- Six big chances created
- xG of 2.41 (highest of season)
Arsenal Match:
- Two goals from inside the box
- Five big chances created
- xG of 2.16 (second-highest of season)
Against quality opposition in Brighton and the league leaders Arsenal, Villa posted their highest xG numbers of the campaign, showing they could create genuine scoring opportunities against top teams.
The Crossing Game Revolution
Getting the ball into wide positions to deliver crosses has been crucial to Villa’s recent improvement. They have scored six open-play goals within 10 seconds of putting a cross into the box in their last three games (2.0 per game), having scored only one such goal in their previous 13 games this season (0.08 per game).
Playing John McGinn on the right-hand side has been key to this tactical shift. The Scottish international has delivered more crosses (21) in Villa’s last five games than any other teammate, closely followed by right-back Matty Cash (17 crosses).
McGinn, naturally a central midfielder, benefits from being left-footed on the right wing, allowing him to take up central positions and come inside, creating overloads and confusing opposition defenses.
| Villa’s Tactical Metrics | Statistics |
|---|---|
| Long-Range Goals | 10 (most in PL) |
| Long-Range Conversion Rate | 23.8% (42 shots) |
| Goals from Crosses (Last 3 Games) | 6 (2.0 per game) |
| Goals from Crosses (Previous 13 Games) | 1 (0.08 per game) |
| McGinn Crosses (Last 5 Games) | 21 |
| Cash Crosses (Last 5 Games) | 17 |
| On Pace to Break Long-Range Record | Yes (0.63 per game vs 0.61 Chelsea 2006-07) |
The Emery Factor: Managerial Credentials
Of managers to have taken charge of 100+ games at a club in Premier League history, Unai Emery has the 12th-best points-per-game rate at 1.85. Of the 11 managers ahead of him, eight have won the title with that team.
The other three represent some of the best examples of teams that really should have won the Premier League:
- Mikel Arteta at Arsenal (1.97 PPG) – might yet win this season
- Rafael Benitez at Liverpool (1.90 PPG)
- Mauricio Pochettino at Tottenham (1.89 PPG)
The challenge for Emery is to prevent his Villa side from joining that list as one of the best sides never to win the Premier League. They may not get many better chances than this one.
Europa League Advantage
Villa also have the benefit of playing in the Europa League rather than the Champions League, where they currently sit third in the league phase after three straight wins. This allows for squad rotation while maintaining competitive rhythm—a potential advantage over Arsenal and City who face more demanding continental schedules.
“We are not feeling under pressure,” Emery said after the West Ham victory. “We are feeling ambitious and we try to challenge in Europe and in the Premier League.”
The Psychological Factor: Underdogs with Nothing to Lose
Up against Arsenal, who have looked largely unbeatable for much of the season, and a resurgent Manchester City, who have been in this position many times before under Pep Guardiola, Villa are definite underdogs.
There’s every chance they will fall away as so many others have before them. However, Villa may benefit from knowing that falling short is exactly what is expected of them. There is no expectation that they will keep pace at the top, meaning they can play with freedom.
They don’t have to contend with the psychological scars of three years of near-misses distracting them like Arsenal, who appear to be wobbling ever so slightly under the weight of expectation. Villa can be the dark horses who surprise everyone.
The Verdict: Can Villa Really Win It?
The evidence presents a compelling picture after Villa’s 2-1 victory over Manchester United extended their winning streak to 10 games. Villa’s statistical profile has improved dramatically, with their recent xG numbers suggesting more sustainable performance levels. They’re creating better chances while maintaining their lethal long-range shooting ability—a devastating combination exemplified by Morgan Rogers’ four goals in two games.
Their tactical evolution under Emery shows genuine sophistication, with the crossing game unlocking new dimensions to their attack. The resilience displayed at West Ham—coming from behind twice—and the individual brilliance shown by Rogers against Manchester United demonstrate both championship mentality and match-winning quality.
Villa will spend Christmas third in the Premier League table, just three points behind Arsenal and two behind Manchester City. Their upcoming fixtures include a trip to Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea on December 27, followed by a home match against Arsenal on December 30—a potential six-pointer that could define their title credentials.
However, historical precedent still suggests caution. Many teams have enjoyed similar runs without converting them into titles. The challenge will be maintaining such standards through the brutal festive period and into the new year, particularly with a thin squad competing on multiple fronts.
What makes this Villa side different from previous nearly men? Perhaps it’s the combination of factors: tactical flexibility, statistical improvement, psychological freedom under Emery, and genuine match-winners like Rogers who can produce magic in crucial moments. Three points off top spot with a game against the leaders coming up, this represents a huge opportunity.
Villa may not get many better chances to win the Premier League than this season. Whether they can sustain their challenge will determine if they’re genuine contenders or simply the latest team to fall short after a brilliant run. Based on current form and momentum, Unai Emery’s Aston Villa have earned the right to be taken seriously as title challengers heading into 2026.
FAQs
What is Aston Villa’s current position in the Premier League?
Aston Villa sit in third place with 36 points (11-3-3 record, +9 GD), just three points behind leaders Arsenal after 17 games. They extended their winning streak to 10 games with a 2-1 victory over Manchester United on Dec 21, marking seven consecutive Premier League victories—their longest ever top-flight winning run.
How sustainable is Villa’s form based on statistics?
Villa’s recent xG data shows significant improvement. Their xG per game has risen from 1.2 to 1.7, while average shot quality has almost doubled from 0.08 to 0.15 xG per shot, suggesting more sustainable performance levels. They’ve won the xG battle in 4 of their last 6 games compared to just 2 of their first 10.
What makes Morgan Rogers so important to Villa’s title challenge?
Rogers has 10 goal contributions in his last 12 Premier League appearances (7 goals, 3 assists), scoring 4 goals in his last 2 games including braces against both West Ham and Manchester United. He’s only the second Villa player to score twice against Man United in the PL, and first to score 2+ in back-to-back top-flight games since Dion Dublin (1998).
When do Villa play Arsenal next?
Villa face Arsenal at Villa Park on December 30 in a potential six-pointer that could define their title credentials. Before that, they travel to Chelsea on December 27. A win against Arsenal would put them level on points or potentially ahead of the Gunners depending on other results.
What is Villa’s biggest tactical strength recently?
Villa’s crossing game has transformed, scoring 6 open-play goals within 10 seconds of crosses in their last 3 games (2.0 per game) versus just 1 in the previous 13 games (0.08 per game). Combined with their long-range shooting prowess (10 goals from outside box, 23.8% conversion), they possess multiple attacking dimensions.
