Here’s our prediction and preview for Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League quarter-final second leg between Inter and Bayern Munich. Who will secure a spot in the semi-finals?
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Inter vs Bayern Munich: Preview
Everything is at stake as Bayern Munich travels to San Siro for the second leg of a thrilling UEFA Champions League quarter-final against Inter, with the tie finely balanced after last week’s first leg in Munich.
Inter lead 2-1 on aggregate, thanks to goals from Lautaro Martínez and Davide Frattesi, which came either side of Thomas Müller’s strike.
The Serie A leaders, who finished as runners-up to Manchester City in 2023, managed a bit of a smash-and-grab victory.
Vincent Kompany’s side fired off 20 shots and registered 2.30 expected goals, which is twice the number of attempts Inter had, and more than double their xG (0.78).
However, Inter made a remarkable 573 high-intensity pressures, the most by any team in a Champions League match this season, trying to catch Bayern off guard with the ball.
Now, Inter must defend their lead as they aim for a spot in the semi-finals. They’re in excellent form at home.
Inter are unbeaten in their last 14 Champions League home games (W12 D2), the longest active streak in the competition, especially after ending Bayern’s 22-game run at the Allianz Arena in the first leg.
The Nerazzurri have advanced from 21 of their last 23 knockout-stage ties in the European Cup/Champions League after winning the first leg. However, one of their two eliminations came last season, when they lost to Atlético Madrid on penalties in the round of 16, despite winning 1-0 in the first leg (2-2 on aggregate, lost 3-2 on penalties).
Bayern, on the other hand, have only advanced from one of their last eight Champions League knockout ties after losing the first leg, though they did manage it in their most recent instance (3-1 on aggregate against Lazio in the last 16 last season).
Underperforming their xG, as they did in the first leg, has been a common theme for Bayern this season.
Despite this, Bayern have the best expected goal difference in the Champions League this term (+19.3 – 32.6 xG for, 13.3 xG against). However, their actual goal difference stands at just +13 (29 scored, 16 conceded), representing the largest negative difference among all teams that qualified from the group stage (-6.3).
Veteran Thomas Müller, who will be leaving Bayern at the end of the season, scored their lone goal last week.
If Müller features, he will equal Lionel Messi (163) for Champions League appearances, leaving him only behind Cristiano Ronaldo (183) and Iker Casillas (177) in overall appearances. With his goal in the first leg, the German became the oldest player to score in a Champions League knockout game for Bayern at 35 years and 207 days.
Inter’s Benjamin Pavard, meanwhile, is no stranger to Bayern, having spent four years at the club between 2019 and 2023.
The France international could make his 50th Champions League appearance on Wednesday. With 40 wins from his 49 matches so far (D5 L4), he already holds the record for the most victories by any player in their first 50 Champions League games.
However, there is no doubt who Inter’s main threat is. Martínez’s stunning opener last week was a remarkable outside-of-the-boot finish. The Argentine has scored in each of his last four Champions League games and could become the first Inter player to score in five consecutive appearances in the competition.
Only two players have scored more goals for Inter in a single Champions League season than Martínez this term (7): Hernán Crespo in 2002-03 (9) and Samuel Eto’o in 2010-11 (8).
At the other end of the pitch, Bayern forward Harry Kane has now reached 100 goal involvements for the club in all competitions. He has scored 78 goals and provided 22 assists for the Bundesliga giants so far.
Inter vs Bayern Munich: Head-to-Head
Bayern have reasons to feel optimistic. They have won all four of their away games against Inter in European competition, including all three in the Champions League, and have yet to concede a single goal (2-0 in 2006, 1-0 in 2011, and 2-0 in 2022).
This marks Inter’s longest losing streak at home to any opponent in European competitions.
In their last six meetings in the Champions League, both teams have won three times each, with only one of those victories coming from the home side (Bayern’s 2-0 win at home in November 2022).
Inter vs Bayern Munich: Team News and Predicted Lineup
Inter – Team News
Inter face fewer injury concerns than Bayern heading into Wednesday’s second leg, though they are still without Denzel Dumfries, Piotr Zielinski, and Valentin Carboni. The trio missed the first leg, but Mehdi Taremi, who was also absent in Bavaria, returned to the bench against Cagliari over the weekend.
Simone Inzaghi is unlikely to make many changes to the side that earned a crucial one-goal advantage in Munich last week, but Federico Dimarco should return at wing-back after missing the first leg due to a minor fitness issue.
Former Bayern players Yann Sommer and Benjamin Pavard will be looking to frustrate their old club on Wednesday.
Inter – Predicted Lineup (3-5-2)
- Goalkeper – Sommer
- Defenders – Acerbi, Acerbi, Bastoni
- Midfielders – Darmian, Calhanoglu, Barella, Mkhitaryan, Augusto
- Forwards – Thuram, Martinez
Bayern Munich – Team News
Bayern will be without their first-choice goalkeeper, Manuel Neuer, for Wednesday’s match after the German giants confirmed his absence ahead of their trip to Milan. 21-year-old winter signing Jonas Urbig will step in between the posts.
The Bundesliga leaders are also missing several key outfield players. Dayot Upamecano, Hiroki Ito, and Alphonso Davies will not play again this season, with Davies potentially out for the rest of the calendar year. Additionally, young Tarek Buchmann remains sidelined with a shoulder injury.
Bayern will also miss Jamal Musiala’s creativity at San Siro, as the attacking midfielder is out with a hamstring injury he sustained earlier this month. However, Aleksandar Pavlovic and Kingsley Coman are both available again after making their comebacks in the weekend’s 2-2 draw with Borussia Dortmund.
Bayern Munich – Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)
- Goalkeper – Urbig
- Defenders – Laimer, Kim, Dier, Stanisic
- Midfielders – Goretzka, Kimmich, Guerreiro
- Forwards – Olisse, Sane, Kane
Inter vs Bayern Munich: Prediction
Inter, under Simone Inzaghi, have built a reputation for tactical discipline and defensive resilience in Europe, and another composed display could be enough to carry them into the semi-finals.
Bayern were left to regret their lapse in concentration after equalising in the first leg, and despite a strong historical record in Milan, this challenge appears far more daunting.
The Nerazzurri don’t need to chase the game—they just have to avoid defeat—and they’ll likely approach the second leg with a pragmatic mindset. Their compact structure and defensive organisation make them a difficult side to break down, especially at San Siro, where they’ve remained rock solid throughout this campaign.
While Bayern boast firepower in the form of Harry Kane, Leroy Sané, and Michael Olise, their depleted squad and defensive vulnerabilities could prove costly. Inter’s balance across the pitch should give them the edge to secure a spot in the semi-finals.
Prediction: Inter 1-1 Bayern Munich
When and Where to Watch Inter vs Bayern Munich Match? Broadcast and Streaming Details
The UEFA Champions League 2024-25 Quarter-finals second leg between Inter and Bayern Munich will take place at the San Siro Stadium in Milan, Italy. The match is set for April 17 at 12:30 am IST. It will be broadcast live on the Sony Network and can be streamed online via Sony LIV.
FAQs
What is the Inter vs Bayern Munich aggregate score ahead of the second leg?
Inter lead 2-1 on aggregate after their win in the first leg at the Allianz Arena.
Where is the UEFA Champions League quarter-final second leg between Inter and Bayern being played?
The second leg will take place at San Siro Stadium in Milan, Italy, Inter’s home ground.
Who are the key players missing for Bayern Munich against Inter?
Bayern will be without Manuel Neuer, Jamal Musiala, Dayot Upamecano, Hiroki Ito, and Alphonso Davies due to injuries.
What is Inter Milan’s recent home record in the Champions League?
Inter are unbeaten in their last 14 home Champions League matches, with 12 wins and 2 draws.
Can Bayern Munich overturn the deficit against Inter at San Siro?
While Bayern have a perfect away record against Inter in Europe, injuries and Inter’s defensive strength make it a tough challenge.
