Can Pep Guardiola’s team take the lead in the UEFA Champions League play-offs? Here’s our preview and prediction for Tuesday’s first-leg clash between Manchester City and Real Madrid.
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Man City vs Real Madrid: Preview
Manchester City and Real Madrid have faced off in each of the last three Champions League seasons, making this the fourth European Cup/Champions League fixture in history to be played across four consecutive campaigns. The only other matchups to achieve this feat include Deportivo de La Coruña vs Juventus (2000-01 to 2003-04), Chelsea vs Liverpool (five times from 2004-05 to 2008-09), and Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid (2013-14 to 2016-17).
In last season’s quarter-finals, Real Madrid knocked out Pep Guardiola’s reigning champions on penalties, despite City registering more than twice as many shots as the Spanish side over the two legs.
Carlo Ancelotti will back his side to progress once again, especially given Madrid’s impressive record against Premier League opponents in recent Champions League knockout stages. They eliminated Liverpool in 2020-21, then saw off Chelsea, City, and Liverpool in 2021-22, followed by Liverpool and Chelsea in 2022-23, and finally City in 2023-24.
Madrid’s 13 knockout-stage victories over English teams are second only to their 16 wins against German opposition.
Guardiola’s shaky defense faces a tough test on Tuesday, particularly with Vinícius Júnior (two goals, three assists) and Rodrygo (four goals, one assist) both tallying five goal contributions against City in UEFA’s premier competition. Only Lionel Messi (9) and Karim Benzema (7) have managed more.
Adding Kylian Mbappé into the mix only strengthens Ancelotti’s formidable attack. Madrid have capitalized on his blistering pace, ranking second only to Bayern Munich (108) in passes breaking the opposition’s defensive line, with 87 in the 2024-25 tournament.
Luka Modric and Rodrygo have delivered the most of these passes (11 each), while Mbappé and Vinícius (14 each) have been the primary recipients. With Kyle Walker unavailable to contain Mbappé, Guardiola faces a crucial decision—will he take the risk of deploying makeshift full-back Matheus Nunes?
City, however, have a key player who has consistently troubled Madrid. Kevin De Bruyne has been directly involved in eight goals across eight Champions League appearances against them (four goals, four assists), the joint-highest tally by any player in the competition’s history alongside Giovane Élber.
In contrast, Erling Haaland has yet to find the net in his four Champions League outings against Ancelotti’s side. The Norwegian has attempted 13 unsuccessful shots across 359 minutes, making Madrid the opponent he has faced most often for City without scoring—a record he’ll aim to break on Tuesday.
City’s injury concerns have also grown, with new signing Nico González forced off during Saturday’s FA Cup win over Leyton Orient. He now joins Nathan Aké, Jérémy Doku, Oscar Bobb, and Ederson as doubts for the upcoming clash.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, have their own fitness worries. Lucas Vázquez picked up a fresh hamstring injury at the weekend, adding to an already lengthy list of absentees, which includes Antonio Rüdiger, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, and David Alaba.
Man City vs Real Madrid: Head-to-Head
City have been knocked out of the Champions League by Madrid three times—more than by any other opponent—despite losing just three of their 12 encounters in the competition.
Along with last season’s quarter-final triumph, Madrid also staged a dramatic extra-time comeback to eliminate City in the 2021-22 semi-finals.
However, there’s reason for optimism for Guardiola’s side. This will be the 13th meeting between the two clubs in the competition, and Madrid have won only four of the previous 12 (D5 L3). Their 25% win rate against City is the lowest they have recorded against any opponent in European Cup/Champions League history.
City also convincingly defeated Madrid in the 2022-23 semi-finals, sealing a dominant 5-1 aggregate victory.
Man City vs Real Madrid: Team News and Predicted Lineup
Man City – Team News
Pep Guardiola is expected to restore Erling Haaland to Manchester City’s starting lineup for their Champions League showdown against Real Madrid.
City host the reigning champions at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday night, aiming for a strong first-leg result in the knockout phase play-off. Haaland, who was rested for the 2-1 FA Cup fourth-round win over Leyton Orient, is set to return and lead the attack.
The Norwegian striker has yet to score in four previous appearances against Real Madrid but has already found the net six times in this season’s Champions League.
While Haaland is set to spearhead City’s frontline, uncertainty remains over the availability of January signing Nico González. The midfielder was forced off just 22 minutes into his debut against Orient and remains a doubt for the clash with Madrid.
“I hope so,” Guardiola said when asked about Nico’s fitness. “The kick was strong in this area. We have a few days, we will see.”
Josko Gvardiol, Phil Foden, and Kevin De Bruyne are all pushing for starts, while Guardiola may shift Manuel Akanji to right-back to counter Madrid’s preference for attacking down the left.
Meanwhile, Ederson, Nathan Aké, Jérémy Doku, and Oscar Bobb could return after resuming training following their injury layoffs. However, Vitor Reis is ineligible, having been left out of City’s updated Champions League squad, which does include fellow January arrivals Abdukodir Khusanov and Omar Marmoush.
Man City – Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)
- Goalkeper – Ortega
- Defenders – Akanji, Stones, Dias, Gvardiol
- Midfielders – Nico, Kovacic, De Bruyne
- Forwards – Bernardo, Foden, Haaland
Real Madrid – Team News
Carlo Ancelotti faces a major defensive crisis as Real Madrid head into their Champions League clash against Manchester City without their first-choice backline.
The reigning champions travel to the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday night, aiming to secure a favorable result ahead of next week’s second-leg showdown at the Santiago Bernabéu. However, their task has become significantly tougher due to mounting injuries in defense.
Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão have both suffered season-ending knee injuries, while Antonio Rüdiger and David Alaba have not traveled to Manchester. Adding to their woes, Lucas Vázquez has now been ruled out with a hamstring injury.
“Following tests carried out on Lucas Vázquez today by the Real Madrid Medical Services, he has been diagnosed with a muscle injury in his left hamstring, meaning he will not be in the squad to travel to Manchester,” a club medical statement confirmed. “His recovery will be assessed.”
With limited defensive options, Ancelotti may be forced to get creative with his lineup. Federico Valverde could slot in at right-back, while Aurélien Tchouaméni is expected to continue as a makeshift center-back alongside youngster Raúl Asencio.
Meanwhile, Luka Modrić and Eduardo Camavinga are in contention for central midfield roles, allowing Ancelotti to field a formidable front four of Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham, Vinícius Júnior, and Kylian Mbappé.
Real Madrid – Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)
- Goalkeper – Courtois
- Defenders – Valverde, Tchouameni, Asencio, Mendy
- Midfielders – Ceballos, Camavinga, Bellingham
- Forwards – Rodrygo, Vinicius Jr., Mbappe
Man City vs Real Madrid: Prediction
Manchester City’s performance against Leyton Orient left much to be desired, though Guardiola heavily rotated his squad for the fixture. That aside, the English champions have regained their scoring touch—and their winning momentum—on home soil in recent weeks.
City’s attacking firepower at the Etihad poses a significant threat to Real Madrid’s injury-hit defense. However, Ancelotti’s side has a history of resilience in Europe and rarely goes down without a fight. In what promises to be an entertaining first leg, we anticipate the holders will head back to Madrid satisfied with a hard-fought draw.
Prediction: Man City 2-2 Real Madrid
When and Where to Watch Man City vs Real Madrid Match? Broadcast and Streaming Details
The UEFA Champions League 2024-25 match between Man City and Real Madrid will take place at Etihad in Manchester, England. The match is set for February 12 at 1:30 am IST. It will be broadcast live on the Sony Network and can be streamed online via Sony LIV.
Read More: Real Madrid’s Fragile Defence Braces for Erling Haaland and Manchester City Onslaught
FAQs
How many times have Manchester City and Real Madrid faced each other in the UEFA Champions League?
Manchester City and Real Madrid have met 12 times in the UEFA Champions League, with City winning three, Madrid winning four, and five matches ending in draws.
What is Erling Haaland’s record against Real Madrid in the Champions League?
Erling Haaland has yet to score in four Champions League appearances against Real Madrid, despite attempting 13 shots across 359 minutes of play.
Which key players are unavailable for Real Madrid against Manchester City?
Real Madrid will be without Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, Antonio Rüdiger, David Alaba, and Lucas Vázquez due to injuries, leaving Carlo Ancelotti with a major defensive crisis.
What is Kevin De Bruyne’s record against Real Madrid in the Champions League?
Kevin De Bruyne has been directly involved in eight goals (four goals, four assists) in eight Champions League appearances against Real Madrid, the joint-most by any player in the competition’s history.
Who are the likely key attacking threats for Real Madrid against Manchester City?
inícius Júnior and Rodrygo have each contributed five goal involvements against City in the Champions League, while Kylian Mbappé adds another dimension to Madrid’s lethal attack.
