The top two teams in La Liga clash this weekend in the Madrid derby. We break down the key battles that will decide the outcome.
Saturday’s Madrid derby is set to be one of La Liga’s standout matches this season, as Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid, the league’s top two, are separated by just one point.
With a potentially season-shaping encounter on the horizon, we explore three key questions for each team and analyze what could unfold at the Santiago Bernabéu.
Table of Contents
Will Ancelotti Persist with His Attacking Quartet?
“The game was pretty well controlled, but Espanyol played very well in transition and defended well… they caught us with one and scored. It was the game they wanted to play,” said Carlo Ancelotti after his team’s 1-0 loss to Espanyol last week.
If he hasn’t already, Diego Simeone will undoubtedly be studying that match closely before the weekend. He’ll have been paying attention, too. The “game [Espanyol] wanted to play,” as Ancelotti described it, might just resemble the one the Atlético boss hopes to execute on Saturday.
This will mark the 12th time Simeone’s Atlético have visited the Bernabéu in La Liga. In the previous 11 encounters, they have averaged just 36% possession and faced 100 more shots than they’ve taken (92 for, 192 against). Yet, despite those numbers, the overall score across those fixtures reads Real Madrid 10-8 Atlético Madrid, with both sides securing three wins apiece.
The visitors understand that even in seemingly unfavorable conditions, they can remain competitive. Both coaches will be fine-tuning their game plans accordingly.
For Ancelotti, the key decision will be whether to start Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, Jude Bellingham, and Rodrygo together— as he did against Espanyol— or to drop the latter in favor of an extra midfielder.
The challenge lies in breaking down a compact defensive setup. While deploying their full attacking arsenal could help unlock Atlético’s backline, it also increases the defensive vulnerabilities of a top-heavy lineup. As seen in their average positions against Espanyol, Real Madrid’s forwards tend to play high up the pitch, often becoming isolated from the rest of the team after turnovers.
This lack of balance has contributed to an underwhelming record against elite opposition this season. In their nine matches against teams ranked in Opta’s top 30, Madrid have secured just two victories—both against Atalanta, a team with a distinct tactical approach. Meanwhile, they have lost six of their last seven encounters with such teams, including defeats to Barcelona (twice), Lille, Milan, Liverpool, and Athletic Club.
One of the teams they failed to overcome? Atlético. Simeone’s side boasts the best defensive record in La Liga this season and has consistently proven its ability to win big games through resilience. Atlético remain unbeaten in the four matches where they’ve had less than 40% possession, with three of those resulting in victories over top-tier opponents—Paris Saint-Germain, Barcelona, and Bayer Leverkusen.
The ‘survive, survive, hit’ philosophy has been a successful blueprint for Atlético in major clashes, and Simeone will trust his squad’s ability to withstand pressure.
Real Madrid will always have the talent edge over their city rivals. The key question is whether Ancelotti fully embraces his attacking firepower or adopts a more pragmatic approach to counter Simeone’s defensive structure.
Can Real Madrid’s Makeshift Defence Withstand the Pressure?
In this season’s earlier meeting—a 1-1 draw—Real Madrid fielded their strongest defensive lineup, featuring Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, Antonio Rüdiger, and Ferland Mendy. This time, however, Ancelotti may only have one of those players available—or none, depending on his selection.
If Mendy starts at left-back, it would mark the first time Real Madrid has deployed a back four of Lucas Vázquez, Raúl Asencio, Aurélien Tchouaméni, and Mendy. If Fran García gets the nod instead, it would be only the second time this defensive unit has started together—the first being a loss to Athletic Club in December.
Should Ancelotti opt for his ‘gala XI’ and unleash his full attacking force, it leaves a fragile equation at the back: an almost entirely new defensive setup behind a team that has struggled with structure and discipline this season. Madrid have frequently been too easy to break down, leading to a chain reaction of defensive collapses.
Such vulnerabilities have been a recurring theme in matches where they’ve dropped points, raising serious concerns about how well their backline can cope against Atlético’s counter-attacking threat.
Real Madrid’s untested defence may not face a relentless attacking onslaught, but Atlético’s defensive setup won’t make things easy for them either. When given the chance to win back possession and push forward, Atlético have the quality to create dangerous moments.
Antoine Griezmann possesses match-winning ability and can adapt to any scenario, while Julián Álvarez has brought a lethal goal threat with his Griezmann-esque link-up play. Giuliano Simeone adds relentless off-the-ball movement, Rodrigo De Paul is La Liga’s top through-ball specialist, and Marcos Llorente and Javi Galán (if fit) provide the energy to launch swift counterattacks.
Atlético also excel in the latter stages of matches. Their goal difference from the 60th minute onward stands at a league-best +15, with 17 goals scored and just two conceded. They’ve already netted three stoppage-time winners in this season’s UEFA Champions League—a record for a single campaign in the competition’s history.
Their late-game strength is further highlighted by the strategic use of Alexander Sørloth—last season’s near top-scorer in La Liga—who is now primarily deployed to exploit tired defences in the second half. Add to that super sub Ángel Correa and potentially Samuel Lino (one of their key players last season), and Atlético have an array of weapons to change the course of the game.
Even if Real Madrid’s makeshift defence holds firm early on, they won’t be in the clear until they weather Atlético’s second wave of attacking threats off the bench. Simeone’s squad is deep, and he knows exactly how to use it.
Can Kylian Mbappé Disrupt Simeone’s Defensive Masterclass?
One of the challenges of managing an elite attacking lineup is finding the right balance—fielding all your stars without compromising the team’s structure. However, the advantage is that, at times, pure talent can override tactical imperfections and still deliver victory.
Saturday’s clash could be a prime example of why Real Madrid pursued Kylian Mbappé despite already being league and European champions. On his best days, the French forward is football’s ultimate game-changer, capable of breaking down even the most resolute defences—exactly the kind of challenge Atlético Madrid presents.
Intriguingly, this will be the first time Mbappé faces Diego Simeone, one of the most revered defensive masterminds of modern football. The battle between the world’s most explosive attacker and one of the sport’s most disciplined defensive setups promises to be a fascinating subplot in this high-stakes showdown.
While this isn’t solely a battle between Mbappé and Atlético, the French forward has emerged as Real Madrid’s key difference-maker. Any of Madrid’s star attackers could step up, but after a challenging first few months in Spain, Mbappé has fully adapted and is proving to be their X-factor. Since December, he has averaged a goal every 89 minutes in La Liga—an improvement from one every 146 minutes earlier in the season.
It’s not just about scoring more goals, either. Against deep defensive setups, where space is minimal, Mbappé has found ways to create openings where none seem to exist. Whether through sharp one-twos, clever decoy runs, or simply driving defenders back with his pace, his trademark moments of brilliance have become more frequent in 2025.
Simeone’s primary strategy to contain him will revolve around denying him space, forcing him to earn every opportunity. Atlético will not risk defeat by leaving gaps for Mbappé to exploit, especially with Robin Le Normand unavailable. Their defensive setup will focus on minimizing space between their backline and Jan Oblak.
Although Atlético’s return to a more traditional 4-4-2 has been widely noted this season, it doesn’t tell the whole story. In this disciplined version of the system, they often drop six players into their defensive line, with wide players Giuliano Simeone and Conor Gallagher providing cover. Meanwhile, one of their forwards—either Griezmann or Álvarez—can drop deeper to help regain midfield control when needed.
Atlético are content to hold their shape in their own half, ensuring every area of the pitch is covered with numbers. When the ball shifts to one side, they quickly compress the space, closing passing lanes with the help of their midfielders.
Mbappé will have few opportunities to bypass Atlético’s defense, struggle to find one-on-one matchups, and find it difficult to isolate a defender from his favored left side. However, given his recent form—particularly against deep defensive setups—he has proven he can still be a threat in congested central areas. Luring defenders out of position before exploiting the resulting gaps with quick combinations has become one of his signature moves.
Back in November, Simeone was heard telling his players during training, “We sit deep to win, not just to defend.” Whether or not Ancelotti deploys all of his attacking firepower, that philosophy will be put to the ultimate test by Mbappé and his supporting cast on Saturday.
Will Simeone Stick to His Approach or Take a Risk?
Diego Simeone enters this derby in an unusual position—his Atlético Madrid side are being considered favorites against Real Madrid, a rare narrative in his tenure. However, the Argentine isn’t buying into the hype.
“We arrive to the game like always,” he quipped when asked about the perception shift. “We’ll arrive on the bus.”
His response speaks volumes. Despite winning just three times in 12 away derbies, two of those victories came against Carlo Ancelotti’s Madrid. A win this time would see Atlético leapfrog their rivals in the league table with 15 games remaining, putting the title race firmly in their hands.
Real Madrid have already dropped points in seven matches this season (four draws, three defeats) and still have a Clásico to navigate. Will Simeone play it safe, content with a draw, or push aggressively for a win that could shape the title race?
Publicly, he’ll insist he’s only focused on the next game. But with both Madrid and Barcelona struggling for consistency, Atlético—who have a slightly more favorable schedule according to Opta’s Power Rankings—may sense an opportunity. If they stay in the fight, there’s a strong chance their rivals falter in the final stretch.
The key decision for Simeone revolves around whether to start Conor Gallagher over Samuel Lino on the left flank—a move that would reveal his intent, either defensive solidity or attacking ambition.
Atlético recently endured a rough domestic spell, drawing with Villarreal and losing to Leganés. While their hard-fought Champions League victory over Bayer Leverkusen helped boost morale, their La Liga struggles haven’t gone unnoticed.
In response, Simeone has opted for Lino in recent games, valuing the Brazilian’s attacking threat over Gallagher’s defensive work rate. While this approach may be viable against Mallorca and Getafe at home, facing Real Madrid at the Bernabéu presents a different challenge.
Although Lino isn’t a defensive weakness, he doesn’t provide the same level of assurance as Gallagher. The Englishman wins more duels and contributes more defensively per 90 minutes, making him a safer bet in high-stakes encounters.
Ultimately, the starting lineup might not be as crucial as Atlético’s ability to adapt. With their strongest-ever bench under Simeone, the real challenge for Ancelotti’s side will be managing the impact of Atlético’s late-game substitutions.
Can Atlético’s Defense Hold Firm?
Both Atlético and Real Madrid fans will be asking the same question ahead of this crucial clash: can their team’s defense withstand the pressure? While Diego Simeone has adapted his tactics over the years, he remains a firm believer that “at the end of the season, the teams who concede the fewest goals are the ones fighting for major trophies.”
A key factor behind Atlético’s impressive defensive record this season has been the arrival of Robin Le Normand. However, Clément Lenglet has also proven to be a shrewd, under-the-radar signing, adding further stability to the backline.
Le Normand’s absence due to suspension is a major blow, forcing Atlético to reshuffle their defense. José Giménez and Lenglet are expected to start, with Axel Witsel potentially slotting into the back three. The difference is significant—without Le Normand, Atlético have conceded an average of 0.9 goals per game this season, compared to just 0.5 when he’s on the pitch.
With Real Madrid’s attacking firepower, Atlético’s makeshift defense will face a stern test at the Bernabéu.
Pablo Barrios’ potential absence—after missing the Copa clash against Getafe—only adds to Atlético’s concerns ahead of their short trip to the Bernabéu. Koke, now 33, is unlikely to last the full 90 minutes in what promises to be a high-intensity, transition-heavy game. That leaves two key midfield positions with major question marks.
There was speculation that Atlético might move for a defensive midfielder before the January transfer window closed, but no signing materialized. Those reports suggest lingering doubts about their current options in that role.
As for Real Madrid’s lineup, whether Ancelotti opts to start Mbappé, Vinícius, Bellingham, and Rodrygo remains to be seen. However, Simeone must prepare for the toughest possible scenario.
Will he gamble on Barrios if he’s fit in time, flanked by Gallagher and De Paul? And more importantly, can Atlético’s defense hold firm without Le Normand?
Will Simeone Take the Initiative?
Real Madrid’s recent defensive struggles have been exacerbated by an ongoing injury crisis. Against Leganés, Ancelotti was forced to field a makeshift backline featuring 20-year-old Jacobo Ramón, 21-year-old Asencio, and midfielder Fede Valverde at right-back. The list of absentees—Carvajal, Militão, Rüdiger, Alaba, and Camavinga—reads more like a Ballon d’Or shortlist than an injury report.
While Madrid’s defense for the derby will be slightly more experienced, it’s still likely to feature at least one square peg in a round hole. More concerning for Ancelotti, his team has struggled with game control all season. Their vulnerability was evident against Leganés, where they squandered a two-goal lead before academy graduate Gonzalo García rescued them with a last-gasp winner.
Adding to Madrid’s challenges, they have one less day of rest than Atlético and a massive Champions League showdown with Manchester City looming on Tuesday. A slight dip in focus would be understandable.
Will Simeone look to capitalize on this by increasing the tempo and pressing high? While his conservative instincts may say otherwise, Atlético’s recent five-goal display against Getafe in the Copa del Rey suggests they have the firepower to unsettle Real. In this case, attack might just be their best form of defense.
Atlético sit 11th in the league for high turnovers (155), indicating they don’t always press aggressively but can be highly effective when they do.
Will Simeone harness his team’s momentum and deploy his energetic attacking options to challenge Madrid’s stability?
It would be a major shock to see Atlético adopt this approach against Real Madrid, but with their opponents fielding a patched-up defense and lacking Toni Kroos’ game management, there may never be a better opportunity for Simeone to experiment in a high-stakes clash.
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FAQs
How does Atlético Madrid’s defensive setup challenge Mbappé?
Atlético Madrid compact their defensive shape, limiting space for one-on-one duels and forcing attackers into congested central areas, making it difficult for Mbappé to exploit his preferred left side.
What tactical dilemma does Diego Simeone face ahead of the Madrid derby?
Simeone must decide whether to deploy an attacking approach with Samuel Lino on the left or opt for the defensive solidity of Conor Gallagher, considering Real Madrid’s injury-hit backline.
How crucial is Robin Le Normand’s absence for Atlético’s defense?
Without Le Normand, Atlético’s defensive stability drops significantly, with their goals conceded per game rising from 0.5 to 0.9, putting more pressure on a makeshift back three.
Can Atlético Madrid exploit Real Madrid’s defensive weaknesses?
With key defenders like Rüdiger, Carvajal, and Alaba injured, Real Madrid have struggled to control games, giving Atlético an opportunity to press higher and force errors.
Will Simeone adopt a high-pressing strategy against Real Madrid?
While Atlético traditionally sit deep, their recent attacking form and Madrid’s vulnerable defense present a rare chance for Simeone to apply pressure higher up the pitch.
