Smartphone Prices May Rise 30% Soon: What the Jefferies Report Means for Your Next Phone

Planning to upgrade? You might want to read this first. A new Jefferies report warns that budget phones could get noticeably pricier, and the reason is surprising: artificial intelligence. Here’s a simple breakdown.

Jefferies Smartphone Report

Why Smartphone Prices Could Rise 30%: How AI Demand Is Squeezing the Global Memory Supply

Memory costs have risen sharply as AI-related demand absorbs a larger share of global supply, which could push low-end phone prices up by around 30 per cent. Think of it like a crowded market: when AI data centers buy more memory chips, there are fewer left for phone makers. AI companies are planning roughly $1.5 trillion in capital spending, which could keep memory prices elevated for several quarters. For background, see Wikipedia’s page on DRAM.

Which Phones Will Be Hit Hardest: Why Budget Android Devices Under $200 Face the Biggest Pressure

Pressure is highest for low-end Android phones priced below USD 200, where memory is estimated to be around 60 per cent of the total bill of materials. That’s why budget buyers feel this first. Memory cost per unit is estimated to have tripled, from about $20 in CY25 to $60-65 now. Premium phones are far less exposed, since memory is a smaller slice of their cost.

How Manufacturers May Respond: Fewer Cheap Models, Older Chips and a Shift Toward Premium Phones

To manage costs, manufacturers may cut the number of lower-priced variants and shrink their distribution channels. Some are also considering one- to two-year-old chips instead of the latest flagship processors. The mix of phones sold could shift too: the share of devices above $600 could rise from 29 per cent to 38 per cent.

What Happens to Shipments and When Memory Prices Could Ease According to Jefferies

The report expects global shipments to fall 15% annually, to 1,067 million units in 2026 and 911 million in 2027. The relief window is distant: memory prices are expected to peak by mid-CY27. So don’t expect a quick bounce back.

What Should Smartphone Buyers Do Now: Practical Tips to Save Money Before Prices Climb

The report suggests a ~30% hike could delay new purchases or push people toward affordable second-hand phones. If you need a phone soon, compare prices now and watch festive-season deals. If you can wait, a refurbished model is a sensible option. Remember, these are forecasts, not guaranteed prices.

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