# World Cup 2026: Japan Preview – Why The Samurai Blue Could Be One of the Most Dangerous Teams with Bigger Ambitions

URL: https://technosports.co.in/world-cup-2026-japan-preview-dangerous-teams/  
Published: 2026-06-14  
Updated: 2026-06-14  
Author: Ankush Mallick

A bright future was predicted for **Japan** by **Akira Nishino** when he stepped down as manager after the **2018 World Cup**, handing the reins to his former assistant **Hajime Moriyasu**. The new coach had won **J. League** titles with Sanfrecce Hiroshima and been lauded for nurturing young talent. He was, Nishino felt, a good fit for Samurai Blue’s next era.

Fast forward to the present, and **Moriyasu** is preparing to lead **Japan** into a **second consecutive [World Cup](https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026)** — something no other manager has achieved — as the **first manager to reach 100 games** in charge of the team. The question is whether those eight years have genuinely built toward something, or whether the **2026 World Cup** will represent another disappointment at the critical moment.

The mood around this squad suggests something has shifted.

## The Glass Ceiling: 25 Matches Without a Quarter-Final

**Japan** hold the **record for the most matches played at a men’s World Cup without ever reaching the quarter-finals — 25 games**. The round of 16 has been the ceiling, reached in **2002 (as co-hosts)**, **2010**, **2018**, and **2022** — each time without breaking through.

![World Cup 2026](https://technosports.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Germany-v-Japan-xG-map-1024x768.jpg)

In **Qatar 2022**, the elimination was particularly bitter because of what surrounded it. **Japan** topped Group E ahead of **Spain** and **Germany** — both of whom they defeated **2-1** — but were then knocked out by Croatia on penalties in the last 16. The penalty exit was not the only sore point; it followed a group stage that included a **1-0 defeat to Costa Rica**, who had previously been beaten **7-0 by Spain**. Japan managed just **0.88 xG** in that game despite controlling possession. It was a missed opportunity, and Moriyasu received significant criticism.

![](https://technosports.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Japan-v-Spain-xG-map-1024x768.jpg)

“***After Qatar, a lot of us started thinking that we’d like to play more proactive football and take the initiative out on the pitch***,” captain **Wataru Endo** told FIFA last month. “***Every match we played, we were thinking about how we’d be able to win against the world’s best teams.***“

![](https://technosports.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Japan-v-Costa-Rica-xG-map.jpg)

## A Shift in Mentality — and Ambition

The results since have backed up that change in mindset. Since October last year, **Japan** have beaten **Brazil**, **Ghana**, **Bolivia**, **Scotland**, **England**, and **Iceland**. The victory over **Brazil** was their **first ever against the five-time world champions**. The **1-0 win at Wembley Stadium** made them the **first Asian team ever to beat England**.

![](https://technosports.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Brazil-v-Japan-xG-race-1024x576.jpg)

These are not meaningless results. You can only beat who’s in front of you.

And **Moriyasu** himself has reflected that ambition change in his public statements.

“***Until now, whenever we played against a World Cup-winning team, the expectation was that we would lose***,” he told reporters in March. “***There was the understanding that even if we lost, we could give it our best and put up a brave fight. Now, nobody knows if we’ll win or lose. Considering that, I think it is OK for us to set the aim of winning the World Cup***.”

To some, that will sound fanciful. But **Japan** were the **first team to qualify for the 2026 World Cup**, doing so in ruthless fashion.

## The Qualification Numbers: Historically Dominant

**Japan’s** qualification campaign for **2026** was the most statistically impressive by any AFC nation.

| Japan AFC Qualifying Stats | Figure | Context |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Goals scored (incl. 3 OGs, excl. forfeit) | 51 | 11 more than any other AFC team |
| Matches played | 15 | Saudi Arabia scored 22 in 18 |
| Shot conversion rate | 21.1% (of 242 shots) | 2nd among teams with 15+ games |
| xG overperformance | +20.9 | Devastatingly efficient |
| Open-play crosses (success rate) | 25.3% (of 225) | Highest proportion in AFC (15+ games) |
| Headed goals | 12 | Most in AFC qualifying (Australia next with 8) |
| Headed goals per game | 0.8 | No other team reached one every two games |

![](https://technosports.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Japan-xG-map.jpg)

Their **51 goals** were more than **double** what **Saudi Arabia** scored from **three fewer matches**. The **21.1% shot conversion rate** ranked second among all teams to have played at least 15 qualifying games, behind only **Kyrgyzstan (21.6% from 116 attempts)**.

## The Tactical Evolution: From Back Four to Attacking Force

The most significant development under Moriyasu heading into **2026** has been structural. While **Japan** broadly operated with a back four in qualifying for **Qatar 2022** and throughout the tournament itself, Moriyasu has almost exclusively deployed a **back three** in qualification for **2026**.

The system is built to be aggressive. Two wing-backs push high. Two number 10s support a central forward. At times, the shape morphs into something close to a **front five** — an overwhelming attacking force that makes them dynamic and difficult to contain.

![](https://technosports.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Japan-average-positions.jpg)

Their back three is generally supported by two deep-lying midfielders, though in games they have dominated, the space between defence and attack compresses considerably, making the entire team more compact and pressing-intensive.

The emphasis on width and delivery is reflected in their **open-play cross numbers**. Their **225 open-play crosses** were second only to **Qatar (265)** in the AFC section, but **Japan’s success rate of 25.3%** was the highest of any team with 15 or more games — and directly explains why their headed goal total was so far ahead of every other AFC nation.

## The Strikers: Ueda’s Prolificacy, Ogawa’s Aerial Threat

The attacking evolution has been embodied by two forwards who represent different but complementary profiles.

### Ayase Ueda

**Ueda** is arguably the most complete centre-forward **Japan** have produced in recent years. At **Feyenoord** in the **Eredivisie** this season, he scored **25 goals** — only one came from the penalty spot. He averaged **one goal every 101 minutes**, and among players across Europe’s top 10 leagues, his tally was bettered only by **Harry Kane (36)**, **Luis Suárez (28)**, and **Erling Haaland (27)**.

![](https://technosports.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Ayase-Ueda-Eredivisie-goals.jpg)

But what distinguishes him further is his aerial quality. **No player in Europe’s top 10 leagues** scored more headed goals in **2025-26 than Ueda’s nine** — a statistic that aligns perfectly with **Japan’s** qualification template.

| Ayase Ueda — 2025-26 Eredivisie | Stat |
| --- | --- |
| Goals | 25 |
| Goals per minutes | 1 per 101 mins |
| Penalty goals | 1 |
| Headed goals | 9 (most in Europe’s top 10 leagues) |

### Koki Ogawa

**Ogawa** (NEC Nijmegen) has emerged as a significant weapon at international level despite limited qualification minutes **(314)**. He scored **five headed goals** in qualifying — nearly half of **Japan’s** total. His role is particularly valuable when **Japan** are chasing games late or struggling to break down stubborn defences.

![](https://technosports.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Koki-Ogawa-goals-World-Cup-qualifying.jpg)

He demonstrated this in the recent **1-0 friendly win over Iceland**, heading home a late winner from the bench. He also scored **four headed goals** in the **Eredivisie** this season — a figure only surpassed by two players in the league, one of whom is international teammate **Ueda**.

Together, **Ueda and Ogawa** make **Japan** a genuine set-piece and aerial threat — only **Qatar (11)** and **Australia (8)** scored more dead-ball goals than **Japan** in AFC qualifying.

## The Goal-Spreading: Three Players With 10+ Involvements

One of the most encouraging aspects of **Japan’s** qualification campaign was the distribution of attacking contributions. They had **more players involved in 10 or more goals** during qualifying than any other AFC team — and all three are in the **2026 squad**:

| Japan’s Top Qualifying Contributors | Involvements | Goals | Assists |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Takefusa Kubo | 12 | 4 | 8 |
| Junya Ito | 11 | 1 | 10 |
| Ayase Ueda | 10 | 8 | 2 |

**Kubo’s** eight assists and **Ito’s** ten — all from open play — reflect a team that creates from multiple angles and through multiple personalities. The reliance on any single player to carry the attack is significantly lower than in previous Japan squads.

## The Injury Concerns: Key Absences That Cannot Be Ignored

Despite the optimism, **Japan’s** preparations have been damaged by significant fitness issues.

**Kaoru Mitoma** — the **Brighton** winger widely regarded as Japan’s most recognisable player — is absent entirely due to a hamstring injury suffered at the end of the **Premier League** season. **Takumi Minamino** (Monaco) is missing with a long-term **ACL injury**. **Wataru Endo**, although named in the squad, has not played competitive football since February following an ankle injury sustained in Liverpool’s win at Sunderland. **Takehiro Tomiyasu** has managed just **44 minutes of competitive action** since **22 March**.

![](https://technosports.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Kaoru-Mitoma-Out-of-World-Cup-2026-961x1024.jpg)
*Kaoru Mitoma*

The losses of **Mitoma and Minamino** are particularly significant in terms of quality and depth. However, **Japan’s** qualification record of spreading goals and assists across the squad provides some insulation against those absences. The team does not depend on any single player.

## Group F and the Bigger Picture

**Japan** face **the Netherlands**, **Sweden**, and **Tunisia** in **Group F** — a group that looks genuinely difficult to call. There is no opponent they will be intimidated by, and they will believe they can take points from each.

The group’s competitive balance may actually work in their favour. In a group where everyone takes points off each other, **Japan’s** quality, tactical coherence, and depth of scoring options give them a credible route to the knockout stages.

What happens after that is the real question. **Japan** are no longer content with making up the numbers. The results against Brazil, England, and Germany have raised expectations — not just externally, but within the squad itself.

Can genuine expectation be handled the same way as underdog status? The **World Cup** is about to provide an answer.

Read More: [World Cup 2026: Group F Predictions and Preview](https://technosports.co.in/world-cup-2026-group-f-predictions-and-preview/)

## FAQs

### What is Japan’s record at the World Cup heading into 2026?

Japan hold the record for most matches played at a men’s World Cup without ever reaching the quarter-finals — 25 games. They have been eliminated at the last-16 stage in 2002, 2010, 2018, and 2022.

### What tactical change has Moriyasu made for 2026?

Moriyasu has shifted from a back four (used predominantly in 2022 qualifying and at the tournament) to a back three for 2026 qualifying, with two wing-backs pushed high and two number 10s supporting a central forward. The system has been credited with Japan’s extraordinary attacking efficiency.

### How dominant were Japan in AFC qualifying?

Japan scored 51 goals in 15 qualifying matches — 11 more than any other AFC nation, and more than double Saudi Arabia’s tally from 18 games. They converted 21.1% of their 242 shots and overperformed their expected goals by 20.9.

### Who are Japan’s key attacking players at World Cup 2026?

Ayase Ueda led the Eredivisie with 25 goals (most headed goals in Europe’s top 10 leagues with 9), while Koki Ogawa provides aerial threat from the bench. Takefusa Kubo (12 qualifying involvements) and Junya Ito (11) offer creativity and assists.

### Which Japan players are missing from the 2026 World Cup squad?

Kaoru Mitoma (hamstring injury) and Takumi Minamino (long-term ACL) are absent. Captain Wataru Endo is in the squad but has not played competitively since February. Takehiro Tomiyasu has had just 44 minutes of competitive action since March.