World Cup 2026 Round of 16: Five Questions That Will Decide USA vs Belgium

The United States host Belgium in a World Cup 2026 last-16 tie in Seattle on Monday night. Can the United States overcome a familiar European opponent and reach the quarter-finals for the first time since 2002? We look at five subplots ahead of USA vs Belgium.

Kevin De Bruyne was freshly 23. Romelu Lukaku was hardly 21. It was 12 years ago, and they both scored extra-time goals while Thibaut Courtois stopped others to beat the United States in the round of 16 of the World Cup. Those three players — and perhaps the memory of a nervy, relentless two hours of knockout football — is all that remains from that day. Much, much more has changed, particularly for a US side now steered by Mauricio Pochettino with players largely playing top-tier football in Europe’s biggest leagues.

The winners of Monday’s match between the United States and Belgium get the winners of Spain vs Portugal in the quarter-finals, but neither side is looking that far ahead. This is the closest match in the last 16, according to the Opta supercomputer:

Here are five storylines to keep an eye on in Seattle.

1. What Would Another Early Lead Mean for the US Against Belgium?

It would hardly be surprising to see this match start favourably for the US. Home energy has been a factor for the United States as co-hosts, but there’s also the reality of how the tournament has gone for both sides.

Early leads have been the United States’ thing at World Cup 2026. They’ve scored three goals in the first 11 minutes of matches, while only the Netherlands have come close to that, scoring three goals in the opening 15 minutes. The US scored early goals against Paraguay and Australia, and those felt like ideal scenarios to double down on how they seem set on playing early in matches — on the front foot, attacking, taking on defenders and fluidly getting the ball into the box with effective runs and ambitious passes.

A lead meant those opponents needed to at least consider opening up and attempting to attack rather than sit in a low block. It resulted in more attacking opportunities for the US with more space. At the other end, the US have conceded 14 or fewer successful passes in the final third in the first half in three of their four matches at this World Cup 2026.

Belgium haven’t been great defensively, either.

Most of Belgium’s xG against came against Senegal — their 3.58 xG against in that match stands as the highest conceded in a single match by any team to reach the knockout stages at World Cup 2026. They also haven’t been strong starters, so there’s every possibility of another early US goal.

But what an early lead means against Belgium compared to the four opponents the US have faced is likely a different story, both in terms of quality and the simple fact that Rudi Garcia’s side have not been particularly phased by going behind at this tournament.

Belgium’s winner against Senegal was the latest goal scored in World Cup history. There have been extended periods during which Belgium have had more of the ball yet looked like a team that wasn’t going to create chances to stay in the tournament — for nearly 60 minutes against Senegal it frankly looked like Belgium valued a summer vacation over World Cup glory, and the same could be said about the first 30 minutes against Egypt.

But when they need to attack, they’ve been capable of breaking teams down — and they do it in specific, measurable ways.

Kevin De Bruyne has played eight line-breaking passes into the penalty area — second at the tournament only to France’s Michael Olise (10). Belgium have also been effective at winning the ball back high up the pitch when it matters.

That’s all to say that Belgium might not be the most intimidating last-16 opponent for the US, but they’re not going to be easy to defend against with a lead. Which raises the question of how exactly Pochettino’s men deal with Belgium’s most dangerous players regardless of game state.

2. Will This Be Jérémy Doku’s World Cup Breakout Match, and Can the US Deal With Belgium’s Most Dangerous Players?

Jérémy Doku was subbed off in the 56th minute of Belgium’s 3-2 win over Senegal in the last 32 without a shot or chance created and a single completed dribble. That’s not a typical performance for the Manchester City winger.

The 24-year-old is coming off a breakout club season in which he scored 10 goals, assisted 11, and completed more dribbles per 90 minutes than any other player in both the Premier League (4.2) and the Champions League (5.6). In an international friendly against the US back in March, he caused significant problems — three shots (two on target), three chances created and three dribbles completed in just 73 minutes. He is a nightmare to defend against, even if it hasn’t consistently shown at this World Cup 2026 as Belgium have at times underwhelmed and Doku has missed time following the birth of his child.

As for Belgium players who have produced at the tournament, Leandro Trossard enters the last 16 with a tournament-leading 16 chances created from open play. He’s been moved around the pitch along with Doku, so it’ll be interesting to see how the US deal with the uncertainty of where the duo will be positioned.

On the US side, Alex Freeman has been a key difference for the US at this World Cup 2026 compared to 2022. At 21 years old, and five months after his move from Orlando City to Villarreal, he’ll be a key element of a US defence that has gone largely untested with their preferred XI on the pitch. If Doku is deployed on the left, it will fall on Freeman to contain him — with help from Weston McKennie on the right side of midfield, Tyler Adams and Chris Richards.

It’ll also be interesting to see what’s asked of Sergiño Dest, who, with the introduction of Freeman as a right-back/right centre-back behind him, hasn’t carried the same defensive responsibilities at this tournament as in the past.

In terms of formation, the US are at times playing three at the back when they have the ball — a structure that gets six or seven men into the attack while retaining cover from three centre-backs in transition. This was visible in the first halves against Paraguay and Bosnia-Herzegovina when playing with their preferred XI.

By contrast, the Gregg Berhalter-led 2022 team didn’t have that flexibility in Qatar. When Dest on the right and Antonee Robinson on the left were both involved in the attack as wing-backs, the two centre-backs were left exposed with perhaps Adams to help. Defensive responsibility in 2026 now falls on Tim Ream, Richards, Freeman and Adams — and Pochettino isn’t asking Dest to do everything.

It was at this stage of the World Cup three and a half years ago that a promising US side were exposed by a seasoned European team. The Netherlands scored three goals in the space the US left. These Belgium players are more than capable of inflicting the same tournament-ending pain.

3. Can the US Continue Their Impressive One-on-One Play Against Belgium, and Should They Be Getting on the End of More Crosses?

For all the feel-good talk in player interviews about the US being a collective unit rather than a team of individuals, it’s worth examining the quality of their one-on-one play. Both can be true at once.

The most promising aspect is that it isn’t just one player doing it.

What that hasn’t consistently resulted in is successful crosses. The US have completed just six of 42 open-play crosses. Whether that matters is debatable and largely a matter of style — France have completed five from 48 attempts, and Argentina just two from 13. Certain teams prioritise crossing, certain teams don’t.

But when considering the US were in the top four entering the last 16 for both runs ending in the box (103) and runs with a crossing option (51), it feels somewhat wasteful. That’s a specific critique of an attack that’s been among the most entertaining at World Cup 2026 — but adding more variety against better opposition probably isn’t going to hurt, especially when they already appear to be in position to execute it.

4. Does Mauricio Pochettino Trust His Bench?

One of the unspoken subtexts that arose from Wednesday’s match against Bosnia-Herzegovina is how much depth this team has and whether Pochettino is comfortable using it. Perhaps he simply likes the XI he’s been using — they’ve been good, and it’s hard to argue with that. But perhaps he’s also been scarred by what he saw when making 10 changes against Türkiye, when that group was shredded in their own penalty area.

The most glaring action — or inaction — that prompted this question: Pochettino didn’t use a substitute until the 87th minute against Bosnia-Herzegovina. That was the latest first substitution made by any team at the tournament, and only the fourth first sub made from the 80th minute onward. This was while the US were playing with 10 men from the 64th minute and attempting to hold a lead — fresh legs were hardly without appeal.

Pochettino only used three substitutes in the Bosnia-Herzegovina match. It could be a small sample size. Or it could be that he’s going to be more selective in knockout games and believed tiring legs in his starting XI were still more trustworthy than the fresh ones on the bench.

Depth at certain positions was already a question coming into World Cup 2026. The team is shallow in defensive midfield if something happens to Adams. There is clearly limited trust at centre-back beyond those currently starting, after Miles Robinson and Mark McKenzie started against Türkiye and the US allowed far too much in their own penalty area. In midfield, Sebastian Berhalter has been a bright spot and was arguably pushing Malik Tillman for a starting position after that same match.

But things happen in tournaments. A star winger gets hurt and misses a match and a half. A striker gets a red card. What if the XI Pochettino chooses against Belgium doesn’t work as well as it has so far? What if the match goes to extra-time? Where does he go? Who does he trust?

5. The Unavoidable History Against Belgium

Belgium somehow still have three players in significant roles who played leading parts in what has come to be known as The Tim Howard Game — the last-16 match at the 2014 World Cup that Belgium won 2-1 in extra-time, with all three goals coming after the 90-minute whistle.

US goalkeeper Tim Howard made a World Cup-record 15 saves — since equalled by Curaçao’s Eloy Room at this World Cup 2026 against Ecuador — to keep the US in the match. De Bruyne and Lukaku provided the Belgium goals, and Courtois was an imposing presence with some big stops to maintain a result that was more than deserved.

Some of the US players in the 2026 squad were as young as nine years old at the time of that match. If experiences from 12 years ago aren’t your thing when assessing what’s going to happen on Monday, that’s entirely reasonable.

Friendlies can be a flawed measurement tool too, but it has to be said that Belgium beat the United States 5-2 as recently as March 28 — just three months ago. Given how the US have performed at World Cup 2026, that match feels more like three years ago than three months. But it’s not like that US team was devoid of key names.

In that match, the wheels came off around the hour mark — a common point at which international friendlies tend to lose shape with substitutions — so take it for what it was. But none of these players have a short enough memory to entirely erase a 5-2 defeat from their minds heading into Monday.

And even if they were 13 years old at the time of The Tim Howard Game and had nothing to do with the result — as McKennie, Pulisic and Adams were — there’s no putting that narrative to rest until they form a new one.

USA vs Belgium kicks off on Monday in Seattle. A place in the World Cup 2026 quarter-finals — and a date with Spain awaits the winners.

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