Real Madrid and Brazil’s Vinícius Júnior is the clear frontrunner for the 2024 Ballon d’Or at Monday’s ceremony. Here’s why he merits this prestigious accolade.
A Stellar Start to this Season for Vinicius Jr.
Although the 2024 Ballon d’Or voting process is not meant to factor in this season’s Champions League performances, Vinícius Júnior provided a compelling reminder this week of his candidacy for the award.
The Real Madrid forward is the overwhelming favorite to secure football’s most esteemed individual honor at the annual ceremony on Monday night. His second-half hat-trick during the comeback victory against Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League highlighted the reasons for this.
In reality, since voting is based on performances and achievements from August 2023 to July 2024, early-season individual game contributions typically don’t influence the outcome. However, with voting for this year’s award taking place in September and October, Vinícius’ impressive start to the new season has undoubtedly raised his profile among the journalists responsible for selecting the winner.
As Vinícius’ main competitors for the Ballon d’Or, Rodri and Jude Bellingham, deal with a season-ending ACL injury and goal-scoring difficulties, respectively, the Brazilian is thriving, which enhances his chances of winning.
His recent Champions League performances have solidified Vinícius’ reputation as a premier big-game player. For those who have yet to cast their votes, his strong start to this season will likely sway opinions, if they weren’t already in his favor.
In a repeat of last season’s Champions League final, Madrid found themselves down 2-0 at halftime. Approaching the hour mark, they still trailed by two goals. However, following a goal by Antonio Rüdiger, Vinícius found his rhythm.
He first capitalized on a loose ball in the box to equalize. After Lucas Vázquez had given the hosts the lead, Vinícius scored a goal that only a few players on the planet could manage—one that signifies a true Ballon d’Or winner.
Starting with the ball 20 yards outside his own penalty area, on the left touchline, and with nine teammates positioned behind him as Dortmund surged forward for an equalizer, Vinícius had little to work with. Yet, just nine seconds later, he was at the edge of the Dortmund box, unleashing an unstoppable shot that capped off a remarkable solo run and secured Madrid’s commanding lead.
Measuring 64.9 meters, it was the second-longest goal-ending carry recorded by any player in a Champions League match since the 2015-16 season. The only longer carry resulting in a goal during this period was by Marco Asensio, who scored for Real Madrid against Bayern Munich in the 2017 quarter-final, covering a distance of 69.0 meters at the same end.
Vinícius wasn’t finished yet; he added a hat-trick goal with a dazzling dribble and a powerful finish into Gregor Kobel’s net during stoppage time.
Vinicus Junior, The Big-Game Player with Consistent Contributions in Key Moments
In Madrid’s moment of need, Vinícius stepped up once again.
Last season, Jude Bellingham frequently delivered similar impactful moments—most notably, scoring a 90th-minute winner in April’s Clásico victory over Barcelona that effectively clinched the title for his team. However, many of Bellingham’s significant contributions came earlier in the season. In contrast, when the Champions League reached its latter stages and the stakes were highest, Vinícius emerged as the key player.
He assisted two of Madrid’s goals in the first leg of the quarter-final against Manchester City, which ended in a 3-3 draw, and his cross set up Rodrygo’s goal in the second leg at the Etihad. In the semi-final first leg against Bayern, he netted both of Madrid’s goals, and his shot led to Manuel Neuer spilling the ball, allowing Joselu to score a late equalizer in the return match. In the final against Dortmund, he scored the goal that put Madrid 2-0 up, essentially sealing their status as European champions once again.
By the end of last season, he recorded six goals and four assists in 10 Champions League appearances, with only Harry Kane (12) directly involved in more goals in the competition.
In the knockout stages alone, Vinícius registered more goals and assists (six) than any other player.
It’s also important to highlight that injuries affected the Brazilian during the first half of last season. He was out for 75 days between August and January due to two separate injuries (according to Transfermarkt), which understandably required time to regain his form after each setback.
However, by the time the crucial part of the season arrived, he was fully back in action.
In the Champions League, his role in Madrid’s swift counter-attacks is essential. These counter-attacks underpin their success in Europe, where they often face teams that prefer to dominate possession. While they may concede significant territory and chances, their defensive resilience and lethal counter-attacking ability allow them to defeat any opponent, even if they frequently “lose” the xG battle.
In domestic play, this approach isn’t as instinctive. Although they hold onto the ball for extended periods, their biggest threat still lies in transition. Last season, they led La Liga in fast-break goals, scoring eight times (a goal from a quick attack following a regain in their own half), despite ranking third in overall possession (59.3%). Typically, possession and counter-attacks don’t go together, but Madrid successfully combines both, largely thanks to players like Vinícius.
Despite missing a significant portion of the 2023-24 season—having played just 1,872 out of a possible 3,420 minutes (54.7%) in the league—Vinícius still ranked among the top players in La Liga for several key metrics.
To begin with, his overall performance was truly remarkable. Despite missing nearly half the season, he still achieved 20 goal involvements (15 goals and five assists), ranking him sixth among all players in the league. Notably, no other player with more than 15 goal involvements played fewer than 1,900 minutes.
Game-Changer in Counterattacks
What truly set him apart was his ability to carry the ball, especially in making decisive contributions following those runs.
Carries are defined as moving at least five meters with the ball, so it’s no surprise to anyone who has watched him play that this is an area where he excels. However, the impact of his ball-carrying ability makes his statistics worth examining.
He finished fourth in La Liga last season for carries that resulted in a shot or a created chance (44), but he led the entire league in the total expected goals value (xG) of the shots and chances he generated after a carry, with a figure of 6.8 xG. Only Savinho (10) had more goals or assists following a carry than Vinícius (8). It’s important to note that Vinícius played just 54.7% of the available minutes, while Savinho played over 1,100 minutes more than him.
He also ranked among the top 20 in the league for progressive carries—defined as carrying the ball at least 5 meters upfield—with a total of 276, and he placed ninth for progressive carries of at least 10 meters (145). Additionally, only Savinho (127) successfully dribbled past an opponent after a carry of at least 5 meters more frequently than Vinícius (101).
Given his limited playing time, it’s no surprise that when adjusted for minutes played, the Real Madrid player climbs significantly in these rankings. He ranked third for progressive carries per 90 minutes (13.3), trailing only Iñigo Martínez (a center-back) and Frenkie de Jong (a central midfielder), both of whom naturally have more space to advance as they receive the ball in deeper positions. Progressive carries tend to be a statistic dominated by deeper-lying players who move the ball out of defense—similar to how Martínez and De Jong operate at Barcelona.
Vinícius ranked in the top three for goal-ending (0.2), assist-ending (0.2), and shot-ending carries (1.5) per 90 minutes, while he significantly led the league for carries followed by a successful dribble per 90 (4.9).
This season, with injuries not yet affecting his performance, he has maintained his excellent form, once again placing among the top players in La Liga for carries. He leads the league in shot-ending carries (12) and ranks third in expected goals (xG) from carries that resulted in a shot or created chance (2.6).
Real Madrid is currently navigating a transitional phase as they adapt to life after Toni Kroos and integrate Kylian Mbappé into their attack. There have been a few setbacks, including a surprising Champions League loss to Lille, and they find themselves three points behind Barcelona at the top of La Liga heading into this weekend’s El Clásico. Last week, they struggled against Celta Vigo and could have easily come away empty-handed had it not been for Vinícius, who stepped up with another match-winning goal.
With five goals and four assists in 10 La Liga matches this season, Vinícius has continued where he left off last term. He has scored six goals and provided three assists in his last seven appearances across all competitions, perfectly timing his current form ahead of the Ballon d’Or announcement.
Ultimately, it is his consistency and crucial contributions in decisive moments from last season that make him a deserving candidate for the award.
While saying that Vinícius single-handedly carried Madrid to glory last season might be an exaggeration, it wouldn’t be entirely off the mark.
When is the El Classico?
The El Classico is on Sunday midnight, October 27, with the match set to kick off at 12:30 AM IST.
