Looking beyond the contrasting recent form of the north London rivals is crucial when predicting the outcome of Wednesday’s meeting. The statistics clearly show that Arsenal are in a much stronger position than Tottenham.
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Arsenal’s Recent Struggles vs Spurs’ Glimmer of Hope
Taking a short-term view, Arsenal’s recent form hasn’t been great. Three consecutive winless games across different competitions have stalled their momentum, but not too long ago, the outlook was much brighter.
A 3-1 victory over Brentford on New Year’s Day had extended their unbeaten streak dating back to early November. Since Martin Ødegaard returned to the starting lineup at Chelsea, Mikel Arteta’s side had gone 12 games unbeaten. Arsenal were firmly in the title race, emerging as the only real challengers to Liverpool’s dominance, and also competing on four fronts. Even a serious hamstring injury to Bukayo Saka seemed to be manageable, as the team secured three consecutive Premier League wins without their star player.
However, recent results have brought a shift in mood. A 1-1 draw at Brighton was a far cry from their best, and their 2-0 defeat at home to Newcastle in the League Cup semi-final first leg was one of their most disappointing results of the season. This was followed by a penalty-shootout loss to 10-man Manchester United in the FA Cup, leaving their hopes of a first trophy since 2020 hanging by a thread.
On the other hand, Spurs are hopeful that they’ve turned a corner after a poor run of form. Just a week ago, Ange Postecoglou’s team had won only two of their last 11 matches, with victories coming against struggling Southampton and Manchester United in the League Cup, despite nearly throwing away a 3-0 lead.
However, a 1-0 win over Liverpool in the first leg of their League Cup semi-final has lifted spirits. Although their narrow 1-0 victory over fifth-tier Tamworth in the FA Cup wasn’t ideal, the team managed to rest some of their key players while still advancing, keeping their trophy aspirations alive.
Arsenal’s Missed Opportunities and Spurs’ Renewed Hope Ahead of Derby
Wednesday’s north London derby comes at a peculiar time, with Arsenal facing the threat of their season unraveling, while Spurs appear poised to get their campaign back on track.
Based on very recent form, one might be inclined to believe Tottenham could secure a result. However, despite Spurs’ rare 262-minute run without conceding, their second-best defensive stretch this season, the reality is that these teams remain worlds apart in terms of overall quality.
Arsenal are title contenders and should be challenging for a Champions League spot, whereas Tottenham have struggled with inconsistency, currently sit in the bottom half of the table, and may not even finish in the top eight of the Europa League group phase.
In Arsenal’s recent winless streak of three games, they have only managed to score twice but have created enough chances to win each match. Their total expected goals (xG) from those games stands at 7.35 (0.88 vs Brighton, 3.22 vs Newcastle, 3.25 vs Man Utd). Yet, they were let down by poor finishing and exceptional goalkeeping, particularly when Ødegaard’s penalty was saved by Manchester United’s Altay Bayindir.
The focus after their FA Cup exit has turned to Arsenal’s need for a clinical striker who can convert chances more effectively than, for example, Kai Havertz. The German forward failed to score from nine shots worth 1.90 xG against Newcastle and Manchester United, missing two clear-cut chances and having his penalty saved in the shootout, which ultimately led to Arsenal’s elimination.
Havertz’s Missed Opportunities and Arsenal’s Struggles Despite Dominating Statistically
Havertz simply isn’t a natural goalscorer. He has consistently underperformed relative to his xG in each of his five seasons in England.
This season, however, his performance is only slightly below expectations, with 12 goals from 12.12 xG. His recent poor form, especially in the last couple of matches, has been felt particularly hard, and it’s only after these misses that his actual goal tally has dipped below his expected goals.
For some fans, though, it’s hard to shake the feeling that Havertz’s glaring misses have contributed to Arsenal’s cup exits, and their near-elimination in another. His penalty miss in the shootout against United certainly didn’t help his case, but the reality is that Arsenal created more than enough opportunities (3.25 xG) against United (0.48 xG) to secure a win before extra time.
Havertz’s struggles in front of goal have come at a particularly unfortunate time, as they coincide with several other major issues: Saka’s injury, Declan Rice’s knock, Gabriel Martinelli’s poor form, Gabriel Jesus’ injury against United, and an 11-game goal drought for Leandro Trossard. Had Havertz’s poor run coincided with a time when everyone else was fit and firing, it might not have felt so significant.
Arsenal have now “won” on xG in 19 of their last 20 matches. In other words, if their finishing were as efficient as their opponents’, they would have won all but one of those games. Of course, there’s more to it than just xG numbers—Newcastle’s strategy of sitting back and absorbing pressure led to more chances for Arsenal, but they still arguably deserved to win. Nonetheless, these figures highlight that Arsenal’s form hasn’t been as bad as it might seem.
Tottenham Spurs’ Longstanding Derby Woes
Against a Spurs side that may have secured clean sheets against Liverpool and Tamworth, but still boasts a leaky defense, Arsenal should once again create plenty of attacking opportunities. Only four Premier League teams have allowed more xG than Spurs this season (34.3).
Tottenham’s record in this fixture is abysmal. They have won just one of their last 31 Premier League away games against Arsenal (D12, L18) and have been winless in 13 matches since their last victory in November 2010. Spurs haven’t kept a clean sheet at the Emirates in a league match for 25 years. With six losses in their last eight north London derbies, a defeat in this match would mean their third consecutive loss to Arsenal, a streak they haven’t experienced since January 1989.
Arsenal, on the other hand, remain the only Premier League team yet to lose a home game this season (W6, D3). While Spurs have shown they can pull off big wins, like their 4-0 victory at Manchester City, they have also been prone to shocking losses, including setbacks against Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, and Nottingham Forest.
Although there are valid reasons for Arsenal’s frustration over the recent turn of events in 2025, it’s crucial to maintain perspective and look at the broader picture.
The Opta supercomputer, unaffected by recent setbacks or uncertainty around one particular player, gives Arsenal a 64.7% chance of victory in the north London derby, while Spurs have just a 16.9% chance. This seems to be a more accurate reflection of the current state of both teams than their brief, contrasting spells of form.
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FAQs
What is Arsenal’s current form ahead of the north London derby?
Arsenal have struggled with three consecutive games without a win but remain a strong title contender with plenty of attacking potential.
How has Havertz been performing this season for Arsenal?
Havertz has underperformed relative to his xG in recent seasons, with his recent form being particularly noticeable, including a missed penalty in the FA Cup.
What is Tottenham’s record in the north London derby?
Tottenham has struggled in the fixture, winning just one of their last 31 away games against Arsenal, and has lost six of their last eight derbies.
Can Spurs pose a real threat to Arsenal in the upcoming derby?
Despite recent clean sheets, Spurs’ defense has been porous, allowing significant xG, and their inconsistency makes them unlikely to overcome Arsenal’s attacking strength.
What are the chances of an Arsenal victory in the north London derby?
The Opta supercomputer gives Arsenal a 64.7% chance of victory, reflecting their dominance over Spurs in recent seasons and their strong home record.
