Real Madrid aims to capitalize on home advantage as they welcome fierce rivals Atlético for the first leg of their Champions League last-16 clash on Tuesday. Get ready for the showdown at the Santiago Bernabéu with our Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid prediction and preview.
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Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid: Preview
History heavily favors Real Madrid as they prepare to take on city rivals Atlético Madrid in a thrilling Champions League last-16 showdown.
Los Blancos have enjoyed complete dominance over Atlético in European competitions, winning all five of their previous knockout-stage encounters, including two finals. Tuesday’s clash will mark their 10th Champions League meeting, a milestone matched only by Chelsea vs. Liverpool among teams from the same nation.
Madrid’s record in all-Spanish knockout ties is exceptional, having advanced in 10 of their 12 encounters. Their only eliminations came at the hands of Barcelona (1960-61 last 16, 2010-11 semi-finals).
Their recent knockout-stage form is equally impressive, with just one defeat in their last 17 matches (W11, D5). They remain unbeaten in their last nine (W5, D4) since suffering a 4-0 thrashing by Manchester City in the 2022-23 semi-finals.
Unsurprisingly, Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior are expected to be the main threats for Carlo Ancelotti’s side.
Mbappé has been prolific in the knockout stages, contributing to 27 goals in 32 appearances (24 goals, 3 assists), including a hat-trick against Man City in his last outing. Only Cristiano Ronaldo (4) has scored more knockout-stage hat-tricks than Mbappé (2).
Meanwhile, Vinícius has been equally influential, registering nine goal involvements in eight appearances this season (7 goals, 2 assists). He aims to reach double digits for the fourth consecutive campaign, a feat previously achieved only by Ronaldo (8) for Real Madrid.
Atlético Madrid’s away record in Champions League knockout matches is a cause for concern. They have suffered three consecutive defeats in such fixtures, their longest losing streak since a five-game run between 1959 and 1971—a stretch that included a 2-1 loss to Real Madrid in April 1959.
Julián Álvarez has been in fine form, scoring six goals in eight Champions League appearances this season. Only two players have netted more in their debut season for Atlético in the competition—Diego Costa (8) in 2013-14 and Vavá (8) in 1958-59.
Rodrigo De Paul has been a key presence in midfield, leading the team in completed passes (374), line-breaking passes (65), and progressive carries (63). Among all players in the competition, only Bayern Munich’s Joshua Kimmich (20) has surpassed De Paul (19) in breaking opposition defensive lines with a pass.
Real Madrid will be without Jude Bellingham due to suspension, while Éder Militão, Dani Carvajal, Dani Ceballos, and Jesús Vallejo remain sidelined with injuries.
For Atlético, Koke and César Azpilicueta are both racing against time to regain fitness ahead of their crucial trip to the Bernabéu.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid: Head-to-Head
The signs don’t look promising for Atlético, who have met their city rivals five times in the knockout stages of the European Cup/Champions League, including finals.
On each occasion, Real Madrid have come out on top, with their most recent triumph occurring in the 2016-17 season.
However, there is a glimmer of hope for Atleti, as they have won the last two European meetings between the sides—a 2-1 victory in the second leg of the 2016-17 semi-final and a 4-2 win in the 2018 Super Cup.
Before those wins, Real Madrid had dominated the fixture, losing just once in the first eight encounters (W5, D2).
This season’s La Liga meetings between the two teams have both ended in 1-1 draws.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid: Team News and Predicted Lineup
Real Madrid – Team News
Real Madrid will be without the suspended Jude Bellingham for Tuesday night’s Champions League showdown against Atlético Madrid.
The English midfielder is ruled out of the round of 16 first-leg clash at the Santiago Bernabéu after receiving his third yellow card of the tournament during last month’s 3-1 victory over Manchester City in the playoff round.
Additionally, Dani Ceballos remains sidelined with a leg injury sustained in the Copa del Rey semi-final first-leg win over Real Sociedad, which is expected to keep him out for up to a month.
Despite these absences, Real Madrid still boast plenty of quality in midfield. Eduardo Camavinga is set to return alongside Aurélien Tchouaméni, while captain Luka Modrić could feature again, with Arda Güler and Brahim Díaz providing alternative options.
Federico Valverde, who missed Saturday’s 2-1 defeat to Real Betis, is expected to return. The Uruguayan played as a right-back in both playoff matches against Man City and may be deployed in that role again, given Lucas Vázquez has only just returned from a minor injury layoff.
In attack, Kylian Mbappé is set to start despite limited training recently due to a dental issue. The French star will lead the frontline, supported by Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo.
Real Madrid – Predicted Lineup (4-4-2)
- Goalkeper – Courtois
- Defenders – Lucas Vazquez, Rudiger, Asencio, Fran Garcia
- Midfielders – Tchouameni, Camavinga, Brahim,Rodrygo
- Forwards – Vinicius Jr., Mbappe
Atletico Madrid – Team News
Atlético Madrid are close to full strength as Diego Simeone looks to build on Saturday’s 1-0 victory over Athletic Club—a result that saw them move ahead of their rivals in the La Liga standings.
Captain Koke is expected to miss out due to injury, while César Azpilicueta remains a doubt after skipping Monday’s training session with a knock that has sidelined him for the past two games.
Simeone may opt for a lineup similar to the one that featured in last week’s thrilling 4-4 draw with Barcelona in the Copa del Rey semi-final first leg. This could see Marcos Llorente, Conor Gallagher, and José Giménez recalled to the starting XI after being rested at the weekend.
Julián Álvarez, who came off the bench to score the winner against Athletic within seven minutes, is also likely to return to the lineup.
Atletico Madrid – Predicted Lineup (4-4-2)
- Goalkeper – Oblak
- Defenders – Llorente, Gimenez, Lenglet, Galan
- Midfielders – Simeone, de Paul, Barrios, Lino
- Forwards – Griezmann, Alvarez
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid: Prediction
The last three meetings between these rivals have ended in 1-1 draws, with Real Madrid managing just one win in their last seven encounters against Atlético.
This first-leg clash is expected to be another closely contested affair, with both sides likely to approach it cautiously. While Real Madrid possess the individual brilliance to produce game-changing moments, Atlético’s defensive solidity makes them a tough opponent to break down.
With little to separate the two teams, this tie appears set to stay finely poised over the full 180 minutes—perhaps even requiring extra time or penalties to decide the outcome.
Prediction: Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid
When and Where to Watch Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Match? Broadcast and Streaming Details
The UEFA Champions League 2024-25 Round of 16 match between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will take place at Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid, Spain. The match is set for March 5 at 1:30 am IST. It will be broadcast live on the Sony Network and can be streamed online via Sony LIV.
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FAQs
Why is Jude Bellingham unavailable for Real Madrid against Atlético?
Jude Bellingham is suspended after accumulating three yellow cards in the Champions League, with his last booking coming against Manchester City in the previous round.
What is Real Madrid’s historical record against Atlético in the Champions League?
Real Madrid have dominated Atlético in European knockout ties, winning all five previous encounters, including two finals. However, Atlético have won the last two European meetings between the sides.
How has Atlético Madrid performed in Champions League knockout away games?
Atlético have struggled in knockout away fixtures, losing their last three—their longest such streak since a five-game run between 1959 and 1971.
Who are the key players to watch in this fixture?
Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior are Real Madrid’s biggest attacking threats, while Julián Álvarez and Antoine Griezmann will be crucial for Atlético.
What were the results of the last three meetings between Real Madrid and Atlético?
The last three fixtures between these rivals have ended in 1-1 draws, making this tie likely to be another closely fought battle.
