Arsenal are in pole position to reach the UEFA Champions League semi-finals following their dominant 3-0 first-leg victory over Real Madrid. Can they finish the job on Wednesday? Here’s our preview and prediction for Real Madrid vs Arsenal.
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Real Madrid vs Arsenal: Preview
Teams have held a lead of three goals or more heading into the second leg of a UEFA Champions League knockout tie on 47 occasions—and only four have failed to progress.
That bodes well for Arsenal as they head to the Santiago Bernabéu, aiming to book their first Champions League semi-final spot since 2009.
Real Madrid, however, are no strangers to dramatic European turnarounds. Last season, they pulled off a stunning comeback against Bayern Munich on their way to a record 15th title, having staged similar heroics versus PSG, Chelsea, and Manchester City in 2021-22.
But with Arsenal holding a commanding 3-0 advantage—thanks in part to two brilliant Declan Rice free-kicks in the first leg—Carlo Ancelotti’s side will need to conjure one of their greatest ever comebacks.
In their 53 encounters with English clubs in the European Cup/Champions League, Real Madrid have managed to win by a margin greater than three goals just twice.
They defeated Derby County 5-1 in the 1975-76 round of 16 and thrashed Tottenham Hotspur 4-0 in the 2010-11 quarter-finals. Remarkably, that comeback against Derby remains the only time Madrid have overturned a three-goal first-leg deficit in the competition’s history.
After a 4-1 defeat at the Baseball Ground, Madrid staged a dramatic response at home. They wiped out the deficit with three goals, but a strike from Charlie George briefly restored Derby’s aggregate lead. A late penalty from Pirri forced extra time, where Santillana sealed the turnaround.
Since then, Madrid have faced a three-goal first-leg deficit on three occasions in Europe’s top-tier competition—but failed to overturn it each time.
Since the European Cup was rebranded as the Champions League in 1992, only four teams have managed to overturn a first-leg deficit of three goals or more in the knockout stages.
Deportivo La Coruña stunned AC Milan in 2003-04, Barcelona pulled off the iconic “Remontada” against PSG in 2016-17, Roma shocked Barcelona in 2017-18, and Liverpool completed a famous comeback against the Catalan giants again in 2018-19.
These rare feats highlight just how daunting the task is for Real Madrid as they attempt to claw back a 3-0 deficit against Arsenal.
If reports from Spain are to be believed, Carlo Ancelotti’s position at Real Madrid is hanging by a thread—and only a miraculous comeback might keep him at the helm next season.
Yet, as Jude Bellingham put it after last week’s defeat: “If there’s one place where crazy things happen, it’s our house.”
This will be Madrid’s 16th home second leg in a Champions League knockout tie since the start of the 2015-16 campaign. In the previous 15, they’ve only been eliminated once—against Ajax in the 2018-19 round of 16.
Arsenal’s emphatic first-leg win marked the 12th time an English club has claimed a three-goal advantage in the opening leg of a Champions League knockout round—and all 11 before them have gone on to qualify.
Mikel Arteta’s side also boast an outstanding defensive record, conceding just 0.55 goals per game in Europe this season. Only in their 2005-06 run to the final have they been more watertight, with a remarkable 0.31 goals conceded per match.
Still, attack might be Arsenal’s best form of defence—averaging 2.55 goals per game, their most prolific Champions League campaign since 2005-06, when they posted 2.63.
In the first leg, Arsenal’s intensity and dynamism overwhelmed Real Madrid. Bukayo Saka repeatedly tormented David Alaba down the flank, while Declan Rice dominated the midfield almost single-handedly.
Although Arsenal had a slightly lower share of possession at 46.6%, they were far more aggressive off the ball, registering 115 high-intensity pressures in the final third—more than three times Madrid’s total of 36, which was the lowest of any team in the first-leg quarter-final matches this season.
Madrid’s task becomes even harder with the suspension of Eduardo Camavinga, who was sent off in stoppage time for time-wasting after receiving a second yellow. His absence will be significant—Camavinga boasts a phenomenal 80.8% tackle success rate (21 out of 25), the highest among all players who have attempted at least 20 tackles in this season’s Champions League.
Just outside the top 10 for tackle success rate in the Champions League this season is Jude Bellingham, who has won 72% of his attempted tackles (18 out of 25). But it’s his attacking contributions that stand out even more—Bellingham has racked up three goals and three assists, with only Florian Wirtz and Michael Olise (seven each) registering more total goal involvements among midfielders.
If Real Madrid are to mount a comeback and put Arsenal under pressure, Bellingham will undoubtedly be central to their efforts—alongside Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé.
Vinícius had a quiet outing in the first leg but is on the verge of a major milestone. With 28 goals and 21 assists, he’s just one goal involvement away from reaching 50 in the Champions League. Achieving that would make him only the fourth Real Madrid player to do so, joining Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, and Raúl—more than twice as many as any other club has produced.
Kylian Mbappé, who was sent off for a reckless challenge on Deportivo Alavés’ Antonio Blanco over the weekend, will also be under the spotlight on Wednesday night. The French forward has a strong record against English clubs in Champions League knockout ties, contributing to eight goals in eight appearances—seven goals and one assist.
Notably, five of those goal involvements have come at the Santiago Bernabéu, where he thrives under the pressure. That tally includes a memorable hat-trick in February’s play-off win over Manchester City, further underlining his reputation as a big-game player in Madrid’s famed stadium.
Real Madrid vs Arsenal: Head-to-Head
Arsenal head into the second leg knowing they simply need to avoid losing by more than two goals to book their place in the Champions League semi-finals.
Their track record against Real Madrid offers plenty of encouragement—they remain unbeaten in all three previous encounters (two wins and one draw), remarkably without conceding a single goal.
In fact, the Gunners are on the verge of making history. If they keep another clean sheet, they’ll become the first team ever to shut out Real Madrid in four consecutive European Cup/Champions League matches. That run includes their famous 1-0 aggregate win in the 2005-06 round of 16, sealed by Thierry Henry’s iconic strike at the Bernabéu.
Real Madrid vs Arsenal: Team News and Predicted Lineup
Real Madrid – Team News
Kylian Mbappé will be available for Real Madrid’s crucial UEFA Champions League quarter-final second leg against Arsenal, despite his controversial red card in Sunday’s LaLiga clash against Deportivo Alavés.
The French forward was sent off in the first half of Madrid’s narrow 1-0 win after VAR upgraded his initial yellow card for a reckless challenge on Antonio Blanco. While Mbappé will now serve a domestic suspension and miss the upcoming league fixture against Athletic Bilbao, he remains eligible for European competition and is expected to start on Wednesday night.
Speaking in Tuesday’s pre-match press conference, Carlo Ancelotti stressed Mbappé’s importance: “He was hurt and disappointed by what happened in Vitoria, but he trained very well yesterday. He’s extremely motivated—and we need him. He’s been scoring consistently this season, but tomorrow we’ll need him more than ever.”
Mbappé is set to lead the line alongside Vinícius Júnior, who featured only briefly off the bench in the Alavés game to stay fresh for the Arsenal clash. Jude Bellingham is also expected to return to the starting XI, having been rested for much of the weekend encounter, with Rodrygo likely completing the attacking trio.
Thibaut Courtois will continue in goal, while Antonio Rüdiger is set to partner youngster Raúl Asencio at centre-back. With Ferland Mendy still sidelined, David Alaba or Fran García will take up duties at left-back. On the right, Ancelotti faces a decision between using Federico Valverde in defense or pushing him into midfield and recalling Lucas Vázquez. Dani Carvajal remains out injured.
Reports in Spain suggest Valverde could be deployed in midfield, especially with Eduardo Camavinga suspended following his stoppage-time dismissal in the first leg for time-wasting. Aurelien Tchouaméni returns from suspension and will be a key addition to the midfield engine room. Luka Modric, who was an unused substitute against Alavés, along with ex-Arsenal loanee Dani Ceballos, offer further options in the middle.
Eder Militão and backup goalkeeper Andriy Lunin remain unavailable, so youngsters Fran González and Sergio Mestre are expected to be on the bench again.
Madrid also face a disciplinary tightrope—Vázquez, Modric, Rüdiger, Vinícius Jr, and teenage prodigy Endrick are all one yellow card away from missing a potential semi-final tie.
Real Madrid – Predicted Lineup (4-4-2)
- Goalkeper – Courtois
- Defenders – Valverde, Rudiger, Asencio, Fran
- Midfielders – Modric, Tchouaméni , Bellingham, Rodrygo
- Forwards – Vinicius Jr., Mbappe
Arsenal – Team News
Arsenal will be boosted by the availability of Thomas Partey and Ben White for their crucial Champions League quarter-final second leg against Real Madrid.
Partey had been a doubt after being substituted late in Arsenal’s 1-1 draw with Brentford in the Premier League on Saturday, but he is fit to feature. He is likely to start in midfield alongside Declan Rice and Martin Ødegaard.
Arsenal head to the Santiago Bernabéu in a strong position after their dominant 3-0 victory in the first leg, thanks to two free-kicks from Rice and a goal from Mikel Merino.
Ben White, who missed the Brentford match due to a knock, has recovered and will likely return to his right-back role, providing a significant boost to the defensive setup. Jakub Kiwior is expected to continue partnering William Saliba in the absence of Gabriel, who is still injured.
Upfront, Leandro Trossard is set to lead the attack, with Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli (or potentially Trossard) providing support on the wings.
Raheem Sterling is available for selection after missing the first leg through suspension, but Jorginho will not travel due to an injury sustained against Brentford. Long-term absentees include Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, Takehiro Tomiyasu, and Riccardo Calafiori.
Arsenal are aiming for their first Champions League semi-final appearance since 2009.
Arsenal – Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)
- Goalkeper – Raya
- Defenders – Ben White, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly
- Midfielders – Odegaard, Partey, Rice
- Forwards – Saka, Merino, Martinelli
Real Madrid vs Arsenal: Prediction
If Arsenal manage to withstand the early pressure in the first 10 minutes – when the Bernabéu crowd is at its most fervent – they could set themselves up for success. However, Real Madrid might have thought the same at the Emirates before Arsenal’s dominant second-half performance.
Arteta’s defense is solid enough to prevent the four goals Real Madrid would need to secure victory in regular or extra time. With Madrid’s defensive vulnerabilities, one fortunate Arsenal player could seize their moment, potentially delivering the decisive blow and sending the reigning champions out. From there, Paris Saint-Germain or Aston Villa would await them on the road to Munich.
Real Madrid may be the most accomplished team in the competition, but Arsenal have been warned. The Spanish giants have pulled off memorable comebacks at the Bernabéu in recent years, reminding the Gunners that nothing is certain.
That said, Arsenal’s defensive resilience makes it unlikely they’ll concede four goals in one night. Moreover, their performance in the first leg demonstrated their ability to breach Madrid’s shaky defense, likely allowing them to score the crucial goal needed to progress.
Prediction: Real Madrid 3-1 Arsenal
When and Where to Watch Real Madrid vs Arsenal Match? Broadcast and Streaming Details
The UEFA Champions League 2024-25 Quarter-finals second leg between Real Madrid and Arsenal will take place at the Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid, Spain. The match is set for April 17 at 12:30 am IST. It will be broadcast live on the Sony Network and can be streamed online via Sony LIV.
FAQs
Can Arsenal secure a Champions League semi-final spot against Real Madrid?
Yes, Arsenal lead 3-0 on aggregate and only need to avoid a heavy defeat in the second leg to reach the semi-finals for the first time since 2009.
What does Real Madrid need to qualify against Arsenal?
Real Madrid must score four goals in the second leg to win in normal or extra time. They are also without a key player like Camavinga.
How can Arsenal hold off Real Madrid at the Bernabéu?
Arsenal must withstand early pressure, keep a solid defensive line, and capitalize on Madrid’s defensive vulnerabilities to progress.
What are Real Madrid’s key threats for the second leg?
Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior are crucial for Madrid, with Mbappé having a strong record in Champions League knockout games against English teams.
Who are the key players for Arsenal in the second leg?
Thomas Partey, Ben White, Bukayo Saka, and Gabriel Martinelli are expected to play pivotal roles in helping Arsenal secure a spot in the Champions League semi-finals.
