Liverpool host Paris Saint-Germain at Anfield with a 1-0 advantage from the first leg of their UEFA Champions League last-16 clash. Check out our Liverpool vs PSG preview and prediction ahead of the match.
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Liverpool vs PSG: Preview
Liverpool welcome Paris Saint-Germain with a slender one-goal lead in their UEFA Champions League last-16 tie. However, their victory in the first leg remains a mystery.
The clash at the Parc des Princes was overwhelmingly in PSG’s favor, making their defeat almost surreal. Liverpool managed just two attempts on goal, with a combined expected goals (xG) value of 0.27—their lowest tally in a Champions League knockout match on record.
Arne Slot’s side had fortune on their side, particularly in the form of Harvey Elliott. Despite limited chances, the young midfielder has now scored in three consecutive Champions League appearances for Liverpool.
The real hero of the night, though, was at the opposite end of the pitch. Alisson produced a goalkeeping masterclass, making nine saves to secure his clean sheet. His 2.3 goals prevented (based on xGOT data) set a new personal best for the club across all competitions.
If the Brazilian goalkeeper delivers another standout performance, he could set yet another record. Since 2003-04, the highest number of saves across two legs of a Champions League knockout tie without conceding is 12—a benchmark set by Gianluigi Buffon (2012-13 vs. Celtic) and Hugo Lloris (2018-19 vs. Borussia Dortmund).
To avoid over-reliance on Alisson, Liverpool must improve their defensive approach against PSG’s relentless dribblers. The French side completed 19 dribbles in the first leg—the highest against Liverpool in the Champions League since Porto managed 21 seven years ago.
Ousmane Dembélé led the charts with five successful dribbles, but Vitinha was close behind with four. His ability to retain possession will be crucial to PSG’s chances of overturning the deficit.
Vitinha has completed 474 passes under high-intensity pressure in the Champions League this season—over 100 more than any other player. Liverpool may need to adjust their pressing strategy, as they are unlikely to disrupt him effectively.
Both Vitinha and Dembélé started on the bench for PSG’s 4-1 victory over Rennes on Saturday, though they came on in the second half. Dembélé made a significant impact, netting twice in stoppage time to take his season tally to 28 goals across all competitions, including 20 in just 15 matches since the start of the year.
Achraf Hakimi, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Nuno Mendes were limited to brief appearances, while Gianluigi Donnarumma and Fabián Ruiz remained unused substitutes. With Marquinhos absent entirely, Luis Enrique managed to rest most of his key players to some extent.
Arne Slot would have hoped for a more comfortable win against Southampton, but Liverpool had to rally from behind to secure a 3-1 victory. However, he was able to rotate within the game, limiting Curtis Jones, Alexis Mac Allister, Andy Robertson, and Dominik Szoboszlai to just 45 minutes each.
Mohamed Salah netted twice from the penalty spot, becoming Liverpool’s third-highest goalscorer of all time. Yet, despite his record-breaking season, he will need to offer more in this match than he did in the first leg.
The Egyptian failed to register a shot in Paris—only the second time he has done so in the Champions League for Liverpool, the first being against Real Madrid in March 2023. He also has a frustrating record against PSG, having faced them three times in the competition without finding the net—more than against any other team.
That should change at Anfield, where Liverpool have been dominant. They have won all four European home games in the 2024-25 campaign, and a victory here would see Slot become the first manager to win his first five home matches in charge of an English club in this tournament.
Liverpool have successfully advanced in their last 14 Champions League ties after winning the first leg. However, if any team is capable of ending that streak, it’s PSG.
The French side has overturned a first-leg deficit in two of their last five Champions League knockout ties. They eliminated Borussia Dortmund in the 2019-20 last 16 (3-2 on aggregate) and staged a dramatic comeback against Barcelona in the 2023-24 quarter-finals (6-4).
The latter holds particular relevance here. Since the abolition of away goals in 2021, six Champions League knockout ties have seen the first leg end in a one-goal away win—five of those teams went on to progress.
Yet, PSG defied the odds against Barcelona in April 2024. After losing 3-2 at home, they stunned the Catalan giants with a 4-1 victory in Spain to secure their place in the semifinals when few expected them to do so.
History isn’t in their favor, though. None of the last 15 French clubs to face English opposition away from home in Europe have emerged victorious. But after toppling one European heavyweight last season, Luis Enrique’s side will believe they can do it again.
Liverpool vs PSG: Head-to-Head
Before Liverpool’s victory at the Parc des Princes last week, they had faced Paris Saint-Germain four times, with each team winning their respective home fixtures.
Their only previous Champions League encounters came in the 2018-19 group stage—the season Liverpool clinched their sixth European title. At Anfield, PSG erased a 2-0 deficit to draw level, only for substitute Roberto Firmino to snatch a dramatic winner in the 92nd minute.
In the reverse fixture, all the goals came in the first half. Juan Bernat and Neymar gave PSG a commanding lead before a James Milner penalty reduced the deficit.
Liverpool vs PSG: Team News and Predicted Lineup
Liverpool – Team News
Liverpool head coach Arne Slot could receive a timely boost ahead of Tuesday’s Champions League last-16 second leg against Paris Saint-Germain, with Cody Gakpo potentially returning from injury.
Gakpo missed the first leg at the Parc des Princes after skipping training the day before and was also absent from Liverpool’s 3-1 victory over Southampton at the weekend.
However, in a major lift for the Reds ahead of both the PSG clash and Sunday’s Carabao Cup final against Newcastle, the Dutch forward participated in an open training session on Monday, raising hopes that he could feature in both fixtures.
Given that Gakpo’s last start came a month ago in the Merseyside derby draw with Everton, Slot may opt to ease him back into action by naming him among the substitutes rather than taking any unnecessary risks. Slot told his pre-match press conference: “Yeah, he [Gakpo] will be in the squad. He trained today for the first time.”
Meanwhile, Darwin Núñez—who found the net against Southampton—will be eager to retain his starting spot over Diogo Jota, especially after playing a key role in Harvey Elliott’s winner in Paris.
Slot could also consider deploying a system without a natural centre-forward, a tactic that proved effective in Liverpool’s recent 2-0 win over Manchester City, which would pave the way for Curtis Jones to start.
Andy Robertson and Alexis Mac Allister are expected to return to the starting lineup after being rested at the weekend, while Dominik Szoboszlai should be fit to start despite his early substitution against Southampton due to concerns over his fitness.
Liverpool – Predicted XI (4-2-3-1)
- Goalkeper – Alisson
- Defenders – Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson
- Midfielders – Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai
- Forwards – Salah, Diaz, Jota
PSG – Team News
Paris Saint-Germain announced a 22-man traveling squad for their crucial Champions League last-16 second-leg clash against Liverpool on Monday morning.
Luis Enrique is expected to reinstate key players, including Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz, Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes, and Gianluigi Donnarumma, after they were rested for PSG’s weekend victory over Rennes.
Notably, the squad remains unchanged from the group that faced Liverpool in the first leg at the Parc des Princes, where the Reds secured a narrow win.
Enrique rotated heavily for Saturday’s 4-1 Ligue 1 triumph, making eight changes to his starting lineup. Willian Pacho, João Neves, and Bradley Barcola were the only players to retain their places from the team that hosted Liverpool last week.
Speaking ahead of the game, Enrique said: “I don’t think Arne Slot has many doubts about our starting XI. I have my ideas about theirs as well. You can say whatever you want, but I don’t pay too much attention to what’s happening elsewhere.“
The PSG boss remained tight-lipped on his tactical approach but emphasized the quality of both teams: “One thing is certain—over these two legs, we are watching two of the best teams in Europe, both of whom are capable of winning the Champions League.”
PSG – Predicted XI (4-3-3)
- Goalkeper – Donnarumma
- Defenders – Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes
- Midfielders – Vitinha, Fabian, Neves
- Forwards – Kvaratskhelia, Dembele, Barcola
Liverpool vs PSG: Prediction
PSG’s squad was reportedly taken aback by Liverpool’s intensity in the first leg, but despite Anfield’s formidable reputation on European nights, the home crowd could be in for a tense evening on Tuesday.
Slot’s men were unconvincing in the first half against Southampton, relying on two Salah penalties to turn the game around. However, PSG are unlikely to offer the same generosity in their defensive third.
With Enrique boasting a fully fit squad and having rotated heavily at the weekend, the visitors should be fresher and better prepared to correct their attacking inefficiencies from the first leg. Given Liverpool’s fatigue, PSG could have the edge if the match extends into extra time.
That said, the Parisians must be more clinical in front of goal, as their wastefulness in the first leg proved costly. Playing under the Anfield lights adds another layer of difficulty, making Liverpool the slight favorites on home soil.
Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 PSG
When and Where to Watch Liverpool vs PSG Match? Broadcast and Streaming Details
The UEFA Champions League 2024-25 Round of 16 match between Liverpool and PSG will take place at Anfield Stadium in Liverpool, England. The match is set for March 12 at 1:30 am IST. It will be broadcast live on the Sony Network and can be streamed online via Sony LIV.
Read More: Cole Palmer’s Spot-Kick Streak Halted at 12 as Chelsea Edge Leicester
FAQs
Will Cody Gakpo play for Liverpool against PSG?
Gakpo has returned to training and could be in contention, but he may start on the bench as he hasn’t played since the Merseyside derby.
What is PSG’s record in Champions League knockout ties after losing the first leg?
PSG have progressed in two of their last five knockout ties after a first-leg defeat, including a dramatic comeback against Barcelona in 2024.
How does Mohamed Salah perform against PSG?
Salah has never scored against PSG in the Champions League and failed to register a shot in the first leg, a rare occurrence for him in the competition.
What changes can be expected in PSG’s lineup for the second leg?
Vitinha, Fabian Ruiz, Hakimi, Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes, and Donnarumma are all expected to return after being rested against Rennes.
What is Liverpool’s home record in the Champions League this season?
Liverpool have won all four of their European matches at Anfield in the 2024-25 season, making them strong favorites for the second leg.
