Italian football prepares for one of its most intriguing seasons in recent memory, as defending champions Napoli look to retain their crown while navigating the pressure of expectation and Champions League football. The 2025-26 Serie A campaign, beginning August 23rd, promises unprecedented drama with major managerial upheaval, blockbuster signings, and a fascinating three-way title race that could reshape the Italian football landscape.
Antonio Conte’s Napoli achieved the seemingly impossible last season, overcoming a calamitous 10th-place finish in 2023-24 to claim their fourth Scudetto in a dramatic finale. Their narrow one-point victory over Inter Milan, sealed with a 2-0 win against Cagliari on the final day, marked one of the most remarkable comebacks in Serie A history. Now, with significant reinforcements and the added burden of Champions League participation, the Partenopei face their greatest test yet.
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Expert Analysis: Inter’s Resurgence
Despite Napoli’s heroic title defense, comprehensive statistical analysis paints a different picture for the upcoming campaign. Inter Milan emerge as overwhelming favorites to reclaim their crown, with the data suggesting last season’s heartbreak will fuel their determination for redemption.
Predicted Serie 2025-26 Table
| Position | Club | Average Points | Title Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Internazionale | 76.6 | 35.9% |
| 2nd | Napoli | 68.7 | Second favorite |
| 3rd | Atalanta | 68.5 | Champions League |
| 4th | Roma | 66.8 | 9.9% title chance |
| 5th | Juventus | 65.0 | 8.2% title chance |
| 6th | Milan | 64.3 | European qualification |
| 7th | Lazio | 61.8 | Conference League |
| 8th | Bologna | 60.1 | Europa League hopes |
| 9th | Fiorentina | 58.9 | Mid-table |
| 10th | Torino | 48.5 | Safe from relegation |
| 11th | Como | 48.4 | Ambitious newcomers |
| 12th | Genoa | 46.8 | Comfortable mid-table |
| 13th | Udinese | 42.6 | Lower mid-table |
| 14th | Parma | 41.9 | Potential relegation battle |
| 15th | Cagliari | 39.5 | Relegation concerns |
| 16th | Hellas Verona | 39.0 | Relegation danger |
| 17th | Sassuolo | 38.8 | Relegation battle |
| 18th | Lecce | 38.5 | Relegation zone |
| 19th | Cremonese | 37.8 | Relegation zone |
| 20th | Pisa | 37.7 | Relegation zone |
Inter’s projected 76.6 average points reflects their underlying strength from last season, where they scored more goals (79) than any other team and conceded the joint-second fewest (35) behind only Napoli (27). The Nerazzurri’s attacking partnership of Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram proved devastating, with Thuram contributing 14 goals and four assists while captain Martínez added 12 goals and three assists.
However, Inter’s path to redemption faces a significant obstacle: the departure of Simone Inzaghi and the appointment of former player Cristian Chivu as head coach. Chivu’s limited Serie A experience—just 13 games managing Parma to safety last season—represents the primary uncertainty in Inter’s title bid.
Napoli’s Reinforcement Strategy
Determined to avoid the fate that has befallen Serie A champions in recent years—no team has successfully defended the title since Juventus in 2020—Napoli have invested heavily in squad depth and quality. Their summer recruitment drive represents a masterclass in strategic planning under Conte’s guidance.
Napoli’s Star-Studded Additions
| Player | Previous Club | Fee | Position | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin De Bruyne | Manchester City | Free | Attacking Midfielder | Reunites with Lukaku |
| Sam Beukema | Bologna | €31m | Centre-back | Defensive reinforcement |
| Noa Lang | PSV | €25m | Left Winger | Attacking depth |
| Lorenzo Lucca | Udinese | Loan | Striker | Forward options |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic | Torino | €21m (obligation) | Goalkeeper | Competition for Meret |
The acquisition of Kevin De Bruyne represents the summer’s most significant coup. The 34-year-old Belgian maestro arrives on a free transfer from Manchester City, reuniting with international teammate Romelu Lukaku in a partnership that promises to terrorize Serie A defenses. Despite concerns about age, De Bruyne’s pedigree remains unquestionable—he was among City’s standout performers as they finished the previous season as one of the Premier League’s strongest teams.
Conte’s influence proved decisive in De Bruyne’s decision, with the Belgian reportedly drawn to the prospect of working under one of football’s most demanding and successful coaches. The signing also addresses Napoli’s creativity concerns following the mid-season departure of Kvicha Kvaratskhelia, whose loss miraculously failed to derail their title charge.
The Managerial Revolution
The 2025-26 season features unprecedented managerial turnover, with seven of last season’s top ten teams appointing new coaches. This widespread change creates uncertainty and opportunity in equal measure, potentially reshuffling the established hierarchy.
Major Managerial Changes
| Club | New Manager | Previous Club | Notable Achievement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | Cristian Chivu | Parma | Former Inter player, limited experience |
| Roma | Gian Piero Gasperini | Atalanta | 9 years at Atalanta, Europa League winner |
| Milan | Massimiliano Allegri | – | Five Serie A titles with Juventus |
| Lazio | Maurizio Sarri | – | Former Juventus, Chelsea coach |
| Fiorentina | Stefano Pioli | Al-Nassr | Former Milan coach returns |
| Atalanta | Ivan Juric | Roma | Replacing departing Gasperini |
The most intriguing appointment sees Gian Piero Gasperini leave Atalanta after nine transformative years to join Roma. Gasperini’s remarkable achievements in Bergamo—including the 2024 Europa League triumph and consistent Champions League qualification—make him arguably Serie A’s most coveted coach. His arrival at the Stadio Olimpico represents the Friedkin family’s ambition to challenge for major honors.
Gasperini’s Roma debut will be historically significant, marking his 600th Serie A match and making him just the fifth person to reach that milestone after Carlo Mazzone (792), Nereo Rocco (747), Giovanni Trapattoni (689), and Nils Liedholm (635).
Juventus: The Sleeping Giant Awakens
Juventus enter the season with renewed optimism under Igor Tudor, who guided them to Champions League qualification after replacing Thiago Motta in March. The Bianconeri’s summer transfer activity suggests serious title ambitions, headlined by the free transfer acquisition of Jonathan David from Lille.
David’s arrival addresses Juventus’s most glaring weakness—clinical finishing. The Canadian striker’s record of 146 goals and 45 assists in 315 appearances for Lille demonstrates the predatory instincts that could transform Juventus from top-four contenders into genuine title challengers.
Juventus’s Transfer Business
| Player | Status | Fee | Position | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan David | Signed | Free | Striker | Primary goalscorer |
| Francisco Conceição | Permanent | €25m | Winger | Following successful loan |
| Wesley Franca | Target | €25m | Defender | Brazilian reinforcement |
However, Juventus face the challenge of integrating new signings while maintaining tactical coherence. Tudor’s appointment, though successful in securing Champions League qualification, represents a gamble on a coach with limited experience managing title expectations.
Roma’s Renaissance Under Gasperini
Roma’s appointment of Gasperini represents the summer’s most fascinating tactical experiment. After missing Champions League qualification by a single point last season, the Giallorossi have entrusted their ambitious project to a coach renowned for transforming talented squads into tactically sophisticated units.
Gasperini inherits a squad featuring Paulo Dybala, whose fitness will largely determine Roma’s ceiling. The Argentine’s creative genius remains undimmed when available, but his injury history creates both opportunity and concern for the new coach.
Roma’s Summer Reinforcements
| Player | Previous Club | Fee | Position | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Ferguson | Brighton | Loan (€34.7m option) | Striker | Young talent |
| Neil El Aynaoui | Lens | €25m | Midfielder | Energy and drive |
| Mario Hermoso | Bayer Leverkusen | Return from loan | Defender | Experience |
The club’s 45.9% chance of Champions League qualification according to statistical analysis reflects both their potential under Gasperini and the competitive nature of the top-four race.
Milan’s Allegri Gamble
AC Milan’s decision to reappoint Massimiliano Allegri represents a calculated risk on proven success over tactical innovation. Allegri’s five Serie A titles with Juventus provide credibility, but his disappointing second stint in Turin raises questions about his ability to adapt to modern football’s demands.
Milan’s summer has been defined more by departures than arrivals, with key players like Tijjani Reijnders joining Manchester City and Theo Hernández moving to Al-Hilal. The addition of veterans like Luka Modrić (joining at 39) and defensive reinforcements suggests a squad in transition rather than transformation.
However, Milan’s exclusion from European competition—mirroring Napoli’s situation during their title-winning campaign—could prove advantageous. The reduced fixture burden allows for tactical development and squad rotation that competing clubs cannot match.
The Champions League Battle
Beyond the title race, the fight for Champions League qualification promises remarkable intensity. With Italy maintaining four Champions League spots, the race involves traditional powerhouses and ambitious challengers.
Champions League Qualification Probabilities
| Team | Top 4 Probability | European Competition | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 68.5 avg points | Champions League | Post-Gasperini transition |
| Roma | 45.9% | Target Champions League | Gasperini effect |
| Juventus | 65.0 avg points | Strong contenders | David’s goalscoring |
| Milan | 64.3 avg points | European hopes | Allegri’s tactical setup |
| Lazio | 28.2% | Europa League target | Sarri’s return |
| Bologna | 24.3% | Conference League | Defending Coppa Italia champions |
Atalanta face the greatest uncertainty, transitioning from Gasperini’s nine-year tenure to Ivan Juric’s contrasting tactical approach. The sale of top scorer Mateo Retegui to Al-Qadsiah for €68 million—Serie A’s record departure this window—compounds their challenges.
The Relegation Battle: Promoted Teams Under Pressure
Expert predictions paint a sobering picture for Serie A’s three promoted teams, with all facing significant relegation risk despite their achievements in reaching the top flight.
Promoted Teams and Relegation Odds
| Team | Last in Serie A | Relegation Probability | Key Challenge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pisa | 1991 (34-year absence) | 38.2% | Longest absence, adaptation needed |
| Cremonese | 2022-23 (two-year absence) | 37.4% | Previous struggle in only top-flight campaign |
| Sassuolo | 2023-24 (one-year absence) | 34.8% | Most likely to survive |
Pisa’s return to Serie A after 34 years represents one of football’s most remarkable stories. Their promotion ends the longest absence from the top flight in club history, but their inexperience at this level creates obvious challenges. The appointment of Alberto Gilardino as head coach, replacing promotion hero Filippo Inzaghi, adds uncertainty to an already difficult transition.
Cremonese struggled in their only previous Serie A campaign this century, finishing second from bottom in 2022-23. Their play-off victory over Spezia (3-2 aggregate) provides confidence, but the gap between Serie B and Serie A has arguably widened since their last top-flight appearance.
Sassuolo, despite being relegated just one season ago, appear best positioned for survival. Their recent Serie A experience and understanding of top-flight demands provide advantages their promoted rivals lack.
Como: The Ambitious Project
Como represents Serie A’s most intriguing wildcard, with Cesc Fàbregas overseeing a transformation that extends far beyond typical promoted team ambitions. Their summer spending exceeding $100 million signals serious intent to establish themselves as a Serie A fixture.
Under Fàbregas’s guidance, Como refused Inter’s approach for their coach, demonstrating confidence in their long-term project. The Spanish coach’s reputation and tactical acumen have attracted quality players typically unavailable to newly-promoted sides.
The Golden Boot Race
With Mateo Retegui’s departure to Saudi Arabia, Serie A will crown a new leading scorer for 2025-26. The Opta predictions and transfer activity suggest several compelling candidates for the Capocannoniere award.
Leading Goalscorer Candidates
| Player | Club | Previous Season | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lautaro Martínez | Inter | 12 goals | Most complete striker, improved service |
| Romelu Lukaku | Napoli | 14 goals | Central to Conte’s system, De Bruyne partnership |
| Jonathan David | Juventus | 146 goals in 315 Lille apps | Proven goalscorer, new environment |
| Moise Kean | Fiorentina | Runner-up last season | Under Pioli’s guidance |
Lautaro Martínez emerges as the leading candidate despite an underwhelming previous campaign. With Inter’s entire tactical system designed to supply him with opportunities and Chivu’s likely tactical continuity, the Argentine captain appears primed for a breakthrough season.
Lukaku’s partnership with De Bruyne adds another dimension to his candidacy. The Belgian striker was central to Napoli’s title success last season despite managing just 14 goals, and improved creativity behind him suggests significant potential for improvement.
European Competition Impact
The return of Champions League football to Naples after their title triumph creates both opportunity and challenge. Conte’s track record of managing multiple competitions provides confidence, but the increased fixture burden tests squad depth despite summer reinforcements.
Inter’s failed Champions League campaign—culminating in a devastating 5-0 final defeat to Paris Saint-Germain—provides motivation for redemption. Their European experience under Chivu becomes crucial for both domestic and continental success.
Tactical Evolution
The managerial changes promise tactical diversity that could reshape Serie A’s playing style. Gasperini’s arrival at Roma introduces his trademark attacking intensity to a club traditionally focused on defensive solidity. Allegri’s return to Milan suggests a more pragmatic approach that contrasts with recent tactical trends.
Conte’s Napoli will likely maintain their successful formula while adapting to Champions League demands. The addition of De Bruyne allows for tactical flexibility that wasn’t previously available.
Season Outlook
The 2025-26 Serie A season promises to deliver drama across multiple narratives. Napoli’s title defense faces the twin challenges of increased expectations and European competition. Inter’s redemption quest under new management creates fascinating tactical questions. Roma’s transformation under Gasperini could reshape the title race entirely.
The managerial revolution ensures tactical unpredictability that could benefit underdogs while challenging established hierarchies. With promoted teams facing immediate relegation pressure and Champions League places at premium value, every match carries significant consequence.
As Italian football prepares for another captivating campaign, the combination of star signings, tactical innovation, and competitive balance suggests a season that will be remembered long after the final whistle sounds on May 24, 2026.
Read More: Barcelona Secures UEFA Approval to Begin Champions League 2025-26 Campaign Away From Home
FAQs
Who are the favorites to win Serie A 2025-26?
According to Opta supercomputer simulations, Inter Milan are favorites with 35.9% title odds and projected 76.6 average points. Despite being defending champions, Napoli are second favorites. Inter scored most goals (79) and conceded joint-second fewest (35) last season before losing the title by one point to Napoli.
What are the biggest transfers in Serie A 2025-26?
Kevin De Bruyne’s free transfer to Napoli headlines the window, reuniting with Romelu Lukaku. Other major moves include Sam Beukema to Napoli (€31m), Jonathan David to Juventus (free), and Mateo Retegui leaving Atalanta for Al-Qadsiah (€68m – Serie A’s record departure). Several clubs have also appointed new managers.
Which teams are likely to be relegated from Serie A?
All three promoted teams face high relegation risk: Pisa (38.2% probability, first time in Serie A since 1991), Cremonese (37.4%), and Sassuolo (34.8%). The promoted teams join after replacing relegated Empoli, Venezia, and Monza, with Sassuolo considered most likely to survive due to recent Serie A experience.
How many managerial changes have occurred in Serie A?
Seven of last season’s top ten teams have new managers, including major appointments: Gian Piero Gasperini (Roma), Cristian Chivu (Inter), Massimiliano Allegri (Milan), Maurizio Sarri (Lazio), and Stefano Pioli (Fiorentina). Only Antonio Conte (Napoli), Igor Tudor (Juventus), and Vincenzo Italiano (Bologna) remain from last season.
What are the Champions League qualification chances for major clubs?
Roma have a 45.9% chance under new coach Gasperini, while Atalanta face transition challenges after losing Gasperini. Juventus and Milan are projected around 65-64 average points for Champions League contention. Lazio (28.2%) and Bologna (24.3%) target Europa League and Conference League spots respectively, with Bologna defending their Coppa Italia title.
