We anticipate Manchester City and Arsenal to play out a dull draw in this massive Premier League showdown on Sunday, but will our prediction hold true?
Here’s a look ahead to the clash at the Etihad Stadium with our Manchester City vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Manchester City vs Arsenal: Preview
After securing an unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League title last season, Manchester City have quickly surged ahead of their rivals in the 2024-25 campaign.
As the only team to record a perfect four wins from four matches, City already hold a two-point advantage over their nearest competitors, whose identity comes as no surprise. Such has been City’s dominance that Arsenal, despite amassing 173 points over the past two seasons, have still been unable to end their long wait for a Premier League title.
However, Arsenal’s recent victory in the north London derby against Tottenham showcased all the traits of a potential champion. A composed performance saw them keep their fierce rivals at bay, with Gabriel Magalhães’ header proving decisive.
But can the Gunners take it one step further this season and do what they couldn’t last year – win at the Etihad Stadium?
Their last encounter was far from memorable. Both Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta fielded eight – yes, eight – recognised centre-backs between them, resulting in a goalless draw at the Etihad in March.
That match generated just 1.68 expected goals (xG) in total, and although many thought Arsenal would be content with the result, following it up with eight wins from their final nine games of the 2023-24 season (one defeat) still wasn’t enough to surpass City at the top of the table.
Will Arteta take a more attacking approach this time? In Arsenal’s last visit to the Etihad, they managed just six shots, totaling 0.66 xG – their fewest in a Premier League match since registering five in a 4-0 loss to Liverpool in November 2021.
Arsenal also recorded just 15 touches inside City’s box compared to their opponents’ 40, their lowest in any Premier League game last season. Additionally, only against Bournemouth (28 in a dominant 4-0 victory) did they make fewer passes into the final third than their 36 at the Etihad.
Through their opening four Premier League matches this season, the Gunners have been steady rather than outstanding, ranking joint-14th for shots (45) and 14th for xG (4.99), despite having the fourth-most touches in the opposition’s penalty area (140).
With captain Martin Ødegaard sidelined due to what Arteta has described as a “significant” ankle injury, Arsenal may adopt a similar game plan to the one they employed against Spurs last weekend. In midweek, they played out a goalless draw with Atalanta, which highlighted their defensive solidity but also underscored their attacking struggles without the Norwegian.
On Sunday, the Gunners will need Bukayo Saka to maintain his excellent form. He has been involved in five of Arsenal’s six league goals this season (one goal, four assists), assisting in all four matches so far. Only club legend Thierry Henry (in 2004-05) has ever provided an assist in five consecutive games to start a Premier League campaign.
Arteta will have Declan Rice back in the squad after he served his suspension during last week’s win against Spurs, while Raheem Sterling could feature against his former club, following his loan move from Chelsea.
Sterling (91) and Sergio Agüero (184) are the only two players with more Premier League goals for City than Erling Haaland (72). The Norwegian striker remains on the brink of his 100th goal for City across all competitions, after being held on 99 by Inter during their UEFA Champions League opener on Wednesday.
Haaland has already netted nine goals in just four league appearances this season, with eight of those coming in his last three games, including hat-tricks against Ipswich Town and West Ham, as well as a brace against Brentford. In Premier League history, only Luis Suárez has managed to score multiple goals in four consecutive matches, with one hat-trick and three braces during a sensational run for Liverpool in December 2013.
Another goal in this match would see Haaland break the record for the fewest games needed to reach double digits in Premier League goals at the start of a season. Mick Quinn (1992-93) and Haaland himself (2022-23) previously achieved this feat in six matches.
After City’s struggles to break down Inter, Guardiola might consider adding Jérémy Doku to the starting lineup. Doku leads all Premier League players this season in total upfield progress from carries (747.81 metres) and is second for progressive carries (64), just behind Brighton’s Jan Paul van Hecke (66). Remarkably, Doku is the only non-centre-back among the top seven in this metric.
As we approach Matchday 5’s headline fixture, one thing is certain—something has to give. City have won their last 13 Premier League matches, and only six teams have ever won 14 or more consecutive games. City and Guardiola are responsible for half of those streaks, with 18 straight wins in 2017, 15 in 2019, and another 15 in 2021.
Meanwhile, Arsenal have not trailed in any of their last 11 away Premier League matches. They have the chance to become the first team in competition history to go 12 consecutive away games without falling behind, matching Aston Villa’s 11-game run from 1998.
Manchester City vs Arsenal: Head-to-Head
Manchester City are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League home matches against Arsenal, winning seven and drawing two, since a 2-0 loss in January 2015.
However, Arsenal managed to earn four points against City in the Premier League last season, which is double the total from their previous 15 encounters with the Citizens (two draws, 13 losses).
The Gunners also kept a clean sheet in both league meetings with City last season, a stark contrast to their previous 16 matches, where they conceded at least once each time, allowing a total of 40 goals.
In their 211 meetings across all competitions, Arsenal have won 99 times (47 draws, 65 losses) against Manchester City. They’ve only reached 100 victories against one other club—Everton (111)—and it’s also the most defeats City have suffered against any single opponent in their history.
Manchester City vs Arsenal: Team News
Manchester City
Pep Guardiola has revealed that Kevin De Bruyne might be available for Manchester City’s upcoming clash against Arsenal this weekend.
The playmaker was substituted at half-time during Wednesday’s 0-0 draw with Inter Milan in the Champions League after seemingly picking up a knock before the break. Initially, Guardiola was uncertain about De Bruyne’s condition but later confirmed that City’s medical team advised against him returning for the second half.
However, on Friday, Guardiola suggested that the 33-year-old could potentially be involved in the crucial match against Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium. “He feels a little better today… Tomorrow we train and we will see. He could be [involved].”
City received a boost against Inter with Rodri making his first start of the season after recovering from a hamstring injury suffered during the Euro 2024 final. Phil Foden also made a return, coming off the bench after dealing with an illness.
Nathan Ake is unlikely to return until after the international break, and Oscar Bobb remains sidelined with a long-term injury.
Manchester City: Predicted Lineup
- Goalkeeper: Ederson
- Defenders: Rico Lewis, Dias, Akanji, Gvardiol
- Midfielders: Rodri, Gundogan, Silva
- Forwards: Savinho, Haaland, Grealish
Arsenal
Arsenal are not anticipated to face any new injury issues ahead of their crucial Premier League match against Manchester City on Sunday.
The Gunners played Atalanta in their Champions League opener in Italy on Thursday night, finishing in a 0-0 draw, and emerged from the game without any injuries.
When asked about fresh injury concerns on Friday morning, Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta replied, “Not really. Right after the match, it’s about recovering, getting good sleep, eating well, and everyone is looking forward to the match on Sunday.”
Arteta will be relieved by this news, especially since he is already missing five first-team players for the showdown at the Etihad Stadium. Kieran Tierney, Martin Ødegaard, Mikel Merino, Oleksandr Zinchenko, and Takehiro Tomiyasu are all sidelined due to injury, although Declan Rice returns after serving a one-match suspension in the recent north London derby victory over Tottenham.
The absence of Ødegaard is a significant setback, as Arteta confirmed this week that the influential captain will be out for “a while” due to a serious ankle injury sustained while on international duty with Norway earlier this month.
Kai Havertz filled in for Ødegaard in midfield against Atalanta and is likely to play a forward role on Sunday. The defense is expected to remain unchanged for the fifth consecutive game after securing yet another clean sheet in Italy, but Arteta faces a decision regarding who will support them in attack.
Arsenal: Predicted Lineup
- Goalkeeper: David Raya
- Defenders: White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber
- Midfielders: Partey, Jorginho, Declan Rice
- Forwards: Saka, Martinelli, Havertz
Manchester City vs Arsenal: Prediction
Given the lackluster performances from both teams midweek, along with the absences of De Bruyne and Ødegaard and the uneventful matches they had last season, some fans might understandably brace themselves for a lackluster encounter in Sunday’s main event.
Regrettably, it’s easy to envision a similar scenario unfolding again at the Etihad. While Haaland is in impressive form domestically, Arsenal’s back five is arguably among the best in the world right now, making another 0-0 draw seem quite likely.
Prediction: 0-0
Read More: Manchester City vs the Premier League: The 115 Charges and Timeline of the Case
When is Manchester City vs Arsenal?
Manchester City face Arsenal at home on Sunday, 22 September from 9:30 pm (IST) onwards.
